Sports Handicapper Frank Sawyer's Picks & Predictions

At 7:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (25) and the Dallas Stars (26) in Game Seven of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Vegas (48-31-9) forced a decisive Game Seven with their 2-0 victory at home against the Stars on Friday. Dallas (55-24-9) had won three games in a row in this series before that setback. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Golden Knights staved off elimination — but they are still struggling to score goals, especially at even strength five-on-five. While Noah Hanifan broke up a scoreless game at the 9:56 minute mark of the third period, the final goal was an empty netter from Mark Stone with 19 seconds left in the game. Vegas has only scored two goals in each of their last four games. The Golden Knights have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring two goals or less in two or more games in a row. But they did get great goaltending from Adin Hill who stopped all 23 shots he faced on Friday. Since taking over between the pipes in Game Five, Hill has a 1.52 Goals-Against-Average along with a .938 save percentage. His 6’6” frame makes him an imposing presence in front of the net. Going back to the Vegas championship run last year, Hill has a 2.09 GAA and a .933 save percentage in 18 games (16 starts). He has three shutouts in the postseason after Game Six — and his two other shutouts were against this Stars team in their playoff series last year. The Golden Knights have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after not allowing more than one goal in their last game — and they have played 15 of their last 22 home games Under the Total after a shutout victory. Furthermore, Vegas has played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total with the Total set at 5.5. Dallas has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after getting shutout in their last game. They have also played 4 of their 6 games Under the Total this season after a loss on the road by two or more goals. They have still won 15 of their last 20 games — and they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning 15 or more games in their last 20 contests. Don’t blame Jake Oettinger for the Game Six loss since he stopped 28 of the 29 shots he faced. After an inconsistent regular season, Oettinger has been great in this series — he has a 2.10 GAA and a .921 save percentage in the first six games with a +2.0 Goals-Saved-Above-Expectation mark. This will be his third start in a Game Seven — he posted a 1.78 GAA and a .956 save percentage in those prior two games. The Stars have played 3 of their 4 games at home this season Under the Total with the Total set at 5.5. They have also played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Under the Total in potential closeout situations. 

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 9 of their last 11 meetings Under the Total. Dallas has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when avenging a shutout loss to their opponent. 25* NHL TBS-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (25) and the Dallas Stars (26). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (545) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (546) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Orlando (50-38) forced a decisive Game Seven in this series with their 103-96 victory at home against the Cavaliers as a 4.5-point favorite on Friday. Cleveland (51-37) has lost three of their last four games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Magic took Game Six despite allowing the Cavaliers to make 48.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last eight games. Orlando finished the regular season ranked third in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. In this series, they have held Cleveland to just 44.0% shooting which has resulted in only 94.2 Points-Per-Game. But the Magic are only making 43.4% of their shots in this series resulting in just 101.3 PPG themselves. Their shooting has been worse on the road where they have only made 38.1% of their shots including 25.2% of their 3s in their three games in Cleveland in this series. The Magic are scoring just 90.7 PPG in those three games while scoring more than 86 points only once. Orlando has played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after playing a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. And while the Magic have eight fewer personal fouls in each of the last two games, they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after committing at least five fewer personal fouls than their opponent in two straight games. Cleveland enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last seven games by making 48.8% of their shots on Friday. But the Cavaliers have not scored more than 104 points in this series — and they have not scored more than 97 points in five of the six games. Cleveland has played 11 of their last 18 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 105 points in three or more games in a row. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after playing two games in a row where neither team scored more than 105 points. The foul situation in the last two games has helped Orlando take 16 and 10 more shots at the free throw line as well — and the Cavaliers have played 24 of their last 34 home games Under the Total after playing two games in a row where they took at least 10 fewer shots at the charity stripe.

FINAL TAKE: Cleveland has played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total when playing with revenge. 25* NBA 1st Round Eastern Conference Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (545) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.