Mar 17 '26, 9:10 PM in 16h
NCAA-B |
NC State vs Texas
Play on:
NC State -105 at PlayMGM
1* Free Pick on NC State -105
NC State is the wrong underdog in this matchup. They are playing their most efficient basketball of the season at exactly the right time.
Texas has looked sluggish over the last two weeks. Their offensive flow has disappeared and they are settling for far too many contested jumpers.
The Longhorns currently rank outside the top 100 in turnover percentage. NC State’s aggressive perimeter defense is built to exploit that specific weakness.
The Wolfpack are forcing nearly 14 turnovers per game lately. Those extra possessions are going to be the difference-makers in a game with such a thin margin.
NC State also holds a massive advantage at the free-throw line. They shoot over 76% as a team and are excellent at drawing contact in the paint.
Texas is relying too much on individual playmaking rather than ball movement. Their assist-to-turnover ratio has been a disaster against high-pressure units.
The Wolfpack have been much better at limiting second-chance points lately. They are crashing the boards with way more intensity than the Longhorns.
NC State's effective field goal percentage has climbed steadily through the post-season. They are finding high-quality looks and finishing consistently at the rim.
Texas is just 2-7 against the spread in their last nine games as a favorite. They consistently underperform when they are expected to control the tempo.
The physical style of NC State is going to wear Texas down by the middle of the second half. The Wolfpack have the deeper rotation and better overall conditioning.
This line should have NC State as a small favorite. We are getting great value on a team that is more balanced on both ends of the floor.
Bet NC State ML (-105).
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