Alex Smart MLB Picks Archive

The Diamondbacks are preparing for their fourth straight win after starting the series vs the Yankees with a pair of close victories . With the Yankees  starter Carrasco  on the downside of his long career the Dback have an edge here.  Last season, Carrasco went 3-10 with a 5.64 ERA in 21 starts for the Cleveland Guardians.Meanwhile, on  the flip-side, Dbacks starter  Kelly is 1-0 with a 2.60 ERA in three career starts against the Yankees and he gets the nod here tonite. 

NY Yankees in home games on the money line vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game are 4-12 since a 2024.NY Yankees in home games on the money line after a one run loss are 2-8 L/10.\

Arizona on the money line on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 are 25-11 since 2024.

Play on Arizona to win

The Detroit Tigers' left-hander and reigning American League Cy Young Award winner is my pick to continue his domination of the Seattle Mariners this afternoon. The Tigers Im betting will complete a  three-game sweep of the Mariners after recording  9-6 and 4-1 victories the first two games of this series. Skubal is 3-0 with a 2.50 ERA in three career starts against Seattle;  .Seattle starter Luis Castillo is 0-5  vs Detroit in the last six seasons. 

Play on the Tigers to win 

National League team with a very good starting pitcher whose ERA was 3.70 or better last season, in the 1st 11 games of the season are 49-16 OVER since 1997 and 16-6 over this season. (Sale and May both qualify)

Systems play (Early season)

National League team with a very good starting pitcher whose ERA was 3.70 or better last season, in the 1st 11 games of the season are 49-16 OVER since 1997 and 16-6 over this season. (Padres King qualifies)

Systems play (Early season)

National League team with a very good starting pitcher whose ERA was 3.70 or better last season, in the 1st 11 games of the season are 49-16 OVER since 1997 and 16-6 over this season. (ARIZONAs Webb qualifies)

Systems play (Early season)

National League team with a very good starting pitcher whose ERA was 3.70 or better last season, in the 1st 11 games of the season are 49-16 OVER since 1997 and 16-6 over this season. (Nats Williams qualifies)

Systems play (Early season)

National League team with a very good starting pitcher whose ERA was 3.70 or better last season, in the 1st 11 games of the season are 49-16 OVER since 1997 and 16-6 over this season. (ARIZONAs Burns qualifies)

Systems play (Early season)

Braves have lost their first 4 games of the season , and things dont look to get much better here tonite vs the Dodgers and their starter Tyler Glasnow is 36-9 ( as a favorite of -166 or higher in the last six seasons (including 22-5  in home starts) Tyler Glasnow is 11-2 vs. NL East teams in the last six seasons.  Glasnow, is 1-1 lifetime against the Braves in four starts, with a 2.38 ERA. The Dodgers are already 5-0 on the season and get the nod here tonight.

Play on the Dodgers to win 

National League team with a very good starting pitcher whose ERA was 3.70 or better last season, in the 1st 11 games of the season are 44-15 OVER since 1997 with a combined average score of +10.7 rpg. Dodgers starter Glasnow qualifies.

 LA Dodgers home games after hitting 3 or more home runs in 2 consecutive games are 6-0 OVER L/6.

Play over

National League team with a very good starting pitcher whose ERA was 3.70 or better last season, in the 1st 11 games of the season are 47-14 OVER since 1997 with a combined average of +10.7 rpg scored.

Phillies starter AARON NOLA starts on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 have gone over 12 of the L/13 times with a combined average of 12.1 rpg scored.

MLB National League team with a very good starting pitcher whose ERA was 3.70 or better last season, in the 1st 11 games of the season are 45-13 OVER since 1997 for a 78% conversion rate with a combined average of 10.8 rpg - This season this trend has cashed 12 of 15 times.

Philadelphia and Washington at Nationals Park, expect warm temperatures around 79°F with low humidity at 39%. Winds blowing out to center field at 10.6 mph could enhance hitting conditions, making it favorable for power hitters. No rain is expected, so field conditions will be optimal for offense.

Play over

First two games of this series have featured fairly high scoring affairs with 16 total run and 9 runs last night meeting.Cubs scored 10 runs in the opener and came back with just 1 last night, but the Dbacks put 8 on the board.  The roof is expected to be open tonite.

 National League team like the Cubs with a very good starting pitcher like IMANAGA(L)  ERA was 3.70 or better last season, in the 1st 11 games of the season are 43-10 OVER since 1997 for a 81% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 11.2 rpg scored.

-The weather at Chase Field for the Cubs vs. Diamondbacks game is expected to favor the hitters. Warm desert temperature around 75°F with low humidity at 16%, amplify ball carry. Light winds at 10.9 mph blowing from left to right may favor right-handed hitters slightly. With no precipitation expected and clear skies, anticipate a fairly high-scoring affair.

Play over

First two games of this series have featured fairly high scoring affairs with 16 total run and 9 runs last night meeting.Cubs scored 10 runs in the opener and came back with just 1 last night, but the Dbacks put 8 on the board.  The roof is expected to be open tonite.

 National League team like the Cubs with a very good starting pitcher like IMANAGA(L)  ERA was 3.70 or better last season, in the 1st 11 games of the season are 43-10 OVER since 1997 for a 81% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 11.2 rpg scored.

-The weather at Chase Field for the Cubs vs. Diamondbacks game is expected to favor the hitters. Warm desert temperature around 75°F with low humidity at 16%, amplify ball carry. Light winds at 10.9 mph blowing from left to right may favor right-handed hitters slightly. With no precipitation expected and clear skies, anticipate a fairly high-scoring affair.

Play over

Griffin Canning is 1-11 n away games in the +105 to -130 line range in L6 seasons.

 National League team like the Atlanta with a very good starting pitcher like Schwellenbach ERA was 3.70 or better last season, in the 1st 11 games of the season are 43-10 OVER since 1997 for a 81% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 11.2 rpg scored.

 National League team like the Miami with a very good starting pitcher like Bellozo   ERA was 3.70 or better last season, in the 1st 11 games of the season are 43-10 OVER since 1997 for a 81% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 11.2 rpg scored.

The Mariners  bats were on fire in spring ball as is evident by averaging 6.6 runs per game, and I’m betting they smash the  Athletics starter Luis Severino in todays opener. Seattle starter Logan Gilbert, is as reliable a hurler there is in MLB as is evident by garnering a solid 3.38 ERA and 3.53 xFIP over the L/3 seasons .When he leaves this game he is backed by a top 10 bullpen from last season. Last season the As lost 17 of 26 division road tilts while the Mariners won 18 of 26 home games vs division opposition. 

The wrong team is favored here in my betting opinion. The NYM are jam packed in the middle of the lineup with offensive fire power, while the Astros are now without Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman  who left during the offseason. no longer can the Astros be looked at as contenders while the Mets can be.

Play on the NY Mets to win 

The Red Sox did some quality up grading in the off season by signing  former All-Star infielder Alex Bregman, starting pitchers Garrett Crochet and Walker Buehler, and closer Aroldis Chapman.

The BoSox will start left hander  Crochett today who had a top tier spring  striking out 30 while garnering  0.57 ERA in 15 2/3 innings.  Texas overall did not fare well  offensively against southpaws last season and Im betting on more of same here today.

Meanwhile, the Rangers starter Eovaldi, according to my early season power rankings does not matchup well vs this deep BoSox batting order. 

Play on the Red Sox to win 

The Dodgers starter  Walker Buehler  has pitched admirably in the post season and is  off four scoreless innings. However, in the regular season and postseason  he owns a overall bloated  5.44 ERA, and a  6.40 road  ERA while allowing a whopping  2.5 home runs per nine innings in road games . Im betting the Yanks star studded offense will do some damage here. Meanwhile, NYY starter  Schmidt in  eight home starts this season, has allowed 1.3 home runs per nine innings with a 4.50 ERA . He goes against a explosive  Dodgers offense that leads play off participants  rpg  in  post season  scoring. both bullpens have been decent in the play offs, but we are now in colder part of season in this particular venue (pitchers  will be taking longer to warmup with LA warm weather arms much more susceptible to being blown up , and with late season exhaustion setting in the offenses Im betting have the edge. 

NY Yankees home games with double revenge - 2 straight losses against opponent are 16-3 OVER with a combined average of 11 rpg scored.

LA Dodgers games vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game in the second half of the season have gone over 15 of their L/19 opportunites with a combined average of 10.6 rpg.

DAVE ROBERTS road games vs. AL teams scoring 4.9 or more runs/game in the second half of the season are 13-2 OVER as manager of the Dodgers with a combined average of 12.4 rpg scored.

Play on the over

NYY starter Rodon entering this tilt  having allowed two earned runs or less in seven of his last eight starts dating back to the regular season and projects to have another top tier outing. Meanwhile,  Dodgers starter Yamamoto looks in his last two postseason starts, allowed a total of two runs in  9 1/3 innings for victories.

The Yankees bullpen garnered a  2.56 ERA in the playoffs. The Dodgers bullpen recorded  a 3.16 postseason ERA.

Yesterday game was low scoring, with most of the runs coming in extra innings. More under valued action is on board tonight despite of the offensive talent on the field. 

Play under

 The Dodgers pitchers have a 4.36 ERA in 11 play off games and have surrendered 13 homers and if it were not for their offense would have not made it to the World Series.Dodgers starters collectively own a 6.08 ERA in 11 tilts. . Meanwhile,  Yanks  rotation owns a 3.89 ERA in nine starts with a 43/13 K/BB ratio in 44 innings, with the bullpen working 38.2 innings in nine games with a 2.56 ERA and a reliever has been the pitcher of record in five of those seven victories. Opponents own a ugly .206 BA against them. 

I know the Dodgers offense has looked unstoppable , but with the likes of Soto and, Judge on the Yankees dugout they may have met their match.  

NY Yankees starter today GERRIT COLE on the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season is on a 8-0 run dating back to the 2023 season.

NY Yankees in road games on the money line after a 2 game span where the bullpen threw 9 total innings or more are on a 9-0 run.

NY Yankees in road games on the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better are on a 5-0 winning run!

NY Yankees in road games on the money line when playing against a team with a winning record are 32-13 L/35 opportunities.

Play on NY Yankees to win

The New York Mets will had tnhe ball to  Sean Manaea in game 6 vs the Dodgers . He prepares to make his fourth start of the play offs , after recording a  2.65 ERA in the post season..  In Los Angeles in game 2 of this series . he allowed just  two earned runs in five innings to pick up a victory for the New York Mets.Im betting on a rinse and repat situation and for the Mets to cash for us an underdogs.

NY Mets starter SEAN MANAEA in road starts on the money line vs. NL teams scoring 5 or more runs/game on the season is a perfect 5-0 dating back to the 2023 season and when he starts vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season is 6-0 this season.

NY Mets in road games on the money line when playing with a day off are 7-1 L/8 opportunities.NY Mets on the money line after scoring 12 runs or more are 6-0 this season.NY Mets in road games on the money line vs. a starting pitcher like the Dodgers Knack who gives up 1 or more HR's/start are 11-3 this season.LA Dodgers in home games on the money line revenging a loss where opponent scored 12 or more runs are 0-6 dating back to the 2022 season.

Play on NY Mets to win

The Guardians, one out away from a 3-0 deficit in the best-of-seven series,recieved a gift from the baseball gods via a two-run homer from pinch hitter Jhonkensy Noel in the bottom of the ninth inning and a two-run shot from David Fry in the 10th to earn a 7-5 win on Thursday, but now Im betting on them crashing back down to earth here today vs the Yankees. it must be noted that Yankees starter LUIS GIL in road starts on the money line when playing against a team with a winning record is 8-1 since the 2022 season. Meanwhile, the guardians starter GAVIN WILLIAMS on the money line in home games is on. a 0-7 run.WILLIAMS on the money line when pitching in night games has seen his team lost 8 of his L/9 nocturnal events. NY Yankees in road games on the money line after a 2 game span where the bullpen threw 9 total innings or more are 7-0 L/7 opportunities.

Play on the NYY to win

The Dodgers are an explosive offensive team  off scoring 10 runs yesterday and they once again to project to have  a big offensive performance here according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings. Note Dodgers starter JACK FLAHERTY road starts vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse has seen his team go over 6 straight times with a combined average of 13.5 rpg scored. Mets starter DAVID PETERSON starts as an underdog of +125 to +175 is 10-1 over dating back to the 2022 season with a combined average of 12.4 rpg scored.LA Dodgers games vs. an NL team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season are 31-8 OVER with a combined average of 11.2 rpg scored.LA Dodgers games vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season are 26-8 L/34 with a combined average of 10.6 rpg scored.

Play over

Left-hander Jose Quintana (0-0, 0.00 ERA in the playoffs) is expected to start for the Mets against right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto (1-0, 5.63 ERA).

Dodgers starter Yamamoto is averaging only four innings per start since returning,  and owns a   a 4.13 ERA since July. The Dodgers  bullpens done well of late, but Im betting a desperate group of Mets get through for some run production tonight. In return Im also betting on a Dodgers offense that is averaging 5.5 rpg on the road to get to Quintana in a tilt that projects to go over the offered total . 

LA Dodgers road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) hVE GONE OVER in 11 of their L/13 with a combined average of 11.2 rpg scored.

LA Dodgers games vs. an NL team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season are 30-8 OVER with a combined average of 11.1 rpg scored.

Play over

NYM starter Luis Severino has pitched well in the post season, but here against a explosive Dodgers offense,   that has averaged 5.2 runs per game in thepost season, best among playoff teams, including  5.5 rpg in away tilts  during the regular season which ranked them 1st in MLB, he does not matchup well . Starter LUIS SEVERINO on the money line in the league championship series is 0-8 in his career. LUIS SEVERINO on the money line in a playoff series which is tied is 0-6 in his career. I know Buehler the Dodgers starter has looked inconsistent at times, all season long, but he has been uptredning in out charts, and is backed by a rested Dodgrs core bullpen - Evan Phillips (.000 OBA in three appearances), Blake Treinen (0.00 ERA in three appearances), Michael Kopech (0.00 ERA in four appearances), or Alex Vesia (0.00 ERA). 

Play on the LA Dodgers to win

Cleveland starter Tanner Bibee recorded a solid  2.76 ERA on the road.His is backed by the best bullpen in baseball  is evident by posting a  2.57 ERA during the regular season. Meanwhile, Gerrit Cole goes to thee hill in  Game 2 for the New York Yankees. He has  been on fiew for a while now  and has not allowed more than  three earned runs  in 11 of his last 12 starts whilew recording a a sting 2.38 ERA. He isa backed by a top tier bullpen. The yanks supporting pitching staff  has not allowed and ER ince September 1, Im betting the Yankees pitcdher limit a The Guardians offense that  ranked 23rd in road scoring this season  with 4.1 runs per game. Im betting the pitchers decide what will be a lower scoring afffiar. 

Cleveland road games with a tired bullpen - after 3 straight games throwing 4+ innings are 13-3 UNDER sincw the 2023 season with a combined average of 6.3 rpg scored. Cleveland road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season are 17-5 UNDER L/22 with a combined average of 6.5 rpg scored.

Play under

This is it, the loser here goes home while the winner advances to the ALCS. Im only looking one way here in this tilt in Cleveland. With the ultra talented Tarik Skubal  going to the hill for the  Detroit Tigers, Im betting they have an edge. The young southpaws record stands at 18-4  along with a  2.39 ERA and enters this game in top form as is evident by have allowed five total runs in his last seven starts between the regular season and playoffs across 45 2/3 innings of quality work. He will be backed by a bullpen that owned the best bullpen in the league fro m August 1  on with  a solid  2.71 ERA.  Meanwhile, former Tigers Boyd will take to the mound for the Guardians. and is also backed by a strong bullpen. But you can bet the Tigers have an extensive book on Boyd, and that gives them an edge here behind a offense that ranked forst in the league from Aug 13th on.  Bottom line here is that the the Guardians have produced  just seven runs in the last 35 innings and against Skubal and company their fuitilty Im betting will continue.TARIK SKUBAL on the money line when playing on Saturday his team is 12-2 in his career. Detroit in road games on the money line after 3 consecutive game versus a division rival are on a 7-1 run.

Play on Detroit to win

Padres starter YU DARVISH road starts in playoff games have gone 7-0 OVER since the 2022 season with a combined average of over 8.3 ppg scored. Meanwhile, Dodgers hurler YAMAMOTO starts as a home favorite of -110 or higher he has seen 10 of 11 games eclipse the number with a combined average of 11.9 rpg scored ( the average total offered by the books in those games was between 7.5 to 8.5).YAMAMOTO home starts when his team is off a win are 6-0 OVER this season with a combined average of 13 rpg scored.(Dodgers won yesterday 8-0) . These are two viable offenses and run production Im betting will see this number eclipsed. The Padres were shut out last night, but Im betting on positive regression in this spot. Note:LA Dodgers games vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season are 22-7 OVER with a combined average of 10.9 rpg scored. Padres Manager MIKE SHILDTin road games on the money line off a loss to a division rival as a favorite.has seen his team produce an average of 5.7 rpg,

Play over

The Padres won their second consecutive game in the current series, in a  6-5 home victory over the Dodgers and are on the verge of eliminating the Dodgers for the second strait year.  Im betting the Dodgers will not go down without a fight and will be prepared to light up the Fathers  Dylan Cease here and his supporting bullpen.  Cease gave up five runs on six hits over 3 1/3 innings in Game 1,to the Dodgers and projects to have an average at best outing here tonight. Meanwhile, the Dodgers will reply with a with a bullpen game. The Dodgers bullpen has been lit up quite regularly for a while now and nothing changes in this spot vs a Padres offense that has averaged 5.3 rpg in their L/7 trips to the diamonds. 

LA Dodgers road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season are 10-2 OVER with a combined average of 11.7 rpg scored.

LA Dodgers road games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season are 22-5 OVER L/27 with a combined average of 11.7 rpg.

The Padres won their second consecutive game in the current series, in a  6-5 home victory over the Dodgers and are on the verge of eliminating the Dodgers for the second strait year.  Im betting the Dodgers will not go down without a fight and will be prepared to light up the Fathers  Dylan Cease here and his supporting bullpen.  Cease gave up five runs on six hits over 3 1/3 innings in Game 1,to the Dodgers and projects to have an average at best outing here tonight. Meanwhile, the Dodgers will reply with a with a bullpen game. The Dodgers bullpen has been lit up quite regularly for a while now and nothing changes in this spot vs a Padres offense that has averaged 5.3 rpg in their L/7 trips to the diamonds. 

LA Dodgers road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season are 10-2 OVER with a combined average of 11.7 rpg scored.

LA Dodgers road games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season are 22-5 OVER L/27 with a combined average of 11.7 rpg.

The Royals are set to send right-hander Seth Lugo to the mound. Lugo made the AL All-Star team this year and finished 16-9 with a 3.00 ERA in 33 starts. He shut down the Yankees on Sept. 10, striking out 10 over seven shutout innings.In his career vs. the Yankees, he is 5-2 with a 2.55 ERA in 14 games (four starts). Rinse and repeat on a value line here as I back the RoyaLS. 

NYY STARTER CLARKE SCHMIDT road starts against AL Central opponents are 6-0 UNDER dating back to the 2023 campaign.CLARKE SCHMIDT starts in road game this season have gone 8-0 under with the average combined score clicking in at 4.4 rpg. CLARKE SCHMIDT road starts vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game are 8-0 UNDER L/8 dating back to the 2023 season with a combined average of 5.7 rpg.

The Royals are set to send right-hander Seth Lugo to the mound. Lugo made the AL All-Star team this year and finished 16-9 with a 3.00 ERA in 33 starts. He shut down the Yankees on Sept. 10, striking out 10 over seven shutout innings.In his career vs. the Yankees, he is 5-2 with a 2.55 ERA in 14 games (four starts) and projects to have another viable start. 

Kansas City home games vs. an AL team with a batting average of .260 or worse in the second half of the season are 15-3 UNDER with a combined average of 7.3 rpg scored.

MLB Home teams - team with a poor SLG (410 or less) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP1.300 or less) -AL, in October games are 57-21 UNDER since 1997 with a combined average of 6.9 rpg scored.

Play under

The Padres send a strong hurler in King to the hill, and he is also backed by a strong bullpen but the explosive Dodgers offense can make the best of pitching staffs look mortal   After getting crushed last time out  10-2 in front of their disgruntled home fans, theDodgers will be collectively primed for a bounce back . Note:  LA Dodgers games off a loss by 6 runs or more to a division rival have gone over 6 straight times with a combined average 13.2 rpg scored. On the flipside LAs WALKER BUEHLER starts when playing against a team with a winning record have gone over 6 straight times dating back to the 2022 campaign, with the average combined rpg clicking in at 10.6 rpg game. Buehlers velocity has been down this season after Tommy John surgery and is very hittable in his current form, which is not a good omen for his chances to a cool down a Padres side that is averaging 5.1 rpg vs right handed starters this season.  Buehler is also 0-3 along with a 6.85 ERA vs the NL West this season.Note: LA Dodgers road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season are 16-3 OVER with a combined average of 11.8 rpg scored with Dodgers themselves averaging 6.8 rpg.LA Dodgers road games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season dating back to last season are 21-5 over with the average combined score clicking in at 11.7 rpg scored.

Play on the OVER

I know this is a matchup that features top tier starting pitchers, Skubal and Boyd. However it must be noted that the  Tigers from August 13 until the end of the regular season,  ranked fourth in the American League in runs per game producing  4.4 runs per outing. Meanwhile, the Guardians rank 10th with  4.7 runs per game at home  this season and 5.3 rpg in their L/41 this season vs LH starters.  Cleveland has also scored an an average 5.9 rpg after shutting out an opponent. With that said, Im betting this line is just a tad to low, and offers value for over bettors.  Note: Detroit games after batting .200 or worse over a 5 game span have gone over 14 of the L/17 times with average rpg diff clicking in at 10.2 rpg game. Detroit road games vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/starts are 23-8 L/31 over with the average of 9.1 rpg scored. MLB teams like Cleveland when the money line is +125 to -125 - starting a over rested pitcher who is working on 7 or more days rest against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP 0.800 or better over his last 3 starts spanning 57 games dating back to the 2020 season=n have seen a combined average of 8.7 rpg scored.

Play over

Mets starting pitcher Luis Severino  has not faired wellon the road this season, with his home ERA compared to road ERA 2 runs per game more as is evident by a  a 4.96 ERA away  with the play offs included., Note:  When LUIS SEVERINO starts when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) hsd deen the total cash 14 of 16 times with the average combined score clicking in at 11 rpg. .Since July 1st the Mets Bullpen owns a  4.34 ERA ranking 21st in the league. These pitching options go against a Philadelphia   offense that ranks fourth in the league in home runs hit per at-bat, while averaging  5.1 runs per game at home during the regular season which is 2nd best in the league. Meanwhile, the Phillies will respond with Sacnhez who despite pitching well at home this season , goes against a red hot Mets offense, that raked 7th on the road this season with a .254 BA while averaging 4.8 rpog ranking 8th on the category Sanchez is backed by a  Phillies bulloen that owns a 4.49 ERA  ranking them 23rd in the league since the beginning of July. 

NY Mets games as a road underdog of +125 to +175 are 15-4 L/19 OVER with 11.8 rpg scored. NY Mets games after allowing 2 runs or less 2 straight games are 13-2 OVER L/15 with s combined average of 11.9 rpg scored.

Philadelphia games after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 5 or more earned runs16-4 OVER dating back to last season with a combined average of 11.7 rpg scored.

Im betting on the Phillies to be primed to bounce back here today vs the Mets after yesterdays 6-2 loss, but for the hot bats of the Mets  offense to not back down and continue their post season surge . Lots of runs should go on the board here today in Philly. 

Play over

Dodgers starter Yamamoto owns a solid  3.00 ERA and a 2.61 fielding independent and gives the Dodgers an edge at home today vs Dylan Cease  who has seen his team lose 30 of his L/51 starts on the road as an underdog of +100 or more. In his last nine starts, Cease has a 3.68 ERA on the road this seadon and his control has been an issue. Im betting Cease is in trouble vs a Dodgers side scoring more than 6.7 rpg in their L/7 overall. 

MLB favorites like the Dodgers with a money line of -125 to -175 - with a team slugging percentage of .440 or better on the season (NL), after allowing 2 runs or less 2 straight games are 37-6 since the 2020 season.

LA Dodgers off 5 straight wins vs. division rivals are 8-0 since the 2022 season with the average rpg diff clicking in at +5. Manager DAVE ROBERTS in home games on the money line off 5 straight wins against division rivals is a perfect 12-0 .

Play on the LAD to win

Mets starter Jose Quintana  enters Thursday tilt  in top form, having surrendered only four total runs, three of which were earned, in his last six starts overall garnering a stingy 0.74 ERA .  He is backed by a New York offense has done well on the  road this season collectively hitting  .254  ranking 7th on MLB , while averaging  4.8 runs per game ranking eighth in that category. and project to do well vs the Brewers rookie starter Myers.  

MLB  teams like Milwaukee when the money line is +125 to -125 - starting a over rested pitcher who is working on 7 or more days rest against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP 0.800 or less over his last 3 starts are just 14-42 since the 2020 season.

Play on the NY Mets to win 

 Brewers send their starter  Montas (7-11, 4.84 ERA) to the hill to face left-hander Sean Manaea (12-6, 3.47) in game 2 of this series. 

 FRANKIE MONTAS starts vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game in the second half of the season are a perfect 7-0 Over since 2022 with a combined average of 12 rpg scored. Montas is 0-0 with a 5.06 ERA in three career regular-season games vs. the Mets, including two starts. He is 1-1 with a 9.45 ERA in three career postseason appearances overall, including one start.

Manaea has not looked good in three postseason outings, including two starts, going 0-3 with a 15.26 ERA in 7 2/3 innings. He is 1-2 with a 5.48 ERA in five career regular-season appearances (four starts) vs. the Brewers .Manaeas last start vs the Mets  Sept 27th of this season resulted in a 8-4 loss and the total being eclipsed. Montas was the opposing pitcher.  

NY Mets road games after 2 straight games with no home runs are 8-1 OVER L/9 have seen a combined average of 11 rpg scored.

Play on the over

Astros starter HUNTER BROWN on the money line as a home favorite of -175 to -250 hs seen his team lose 8 of his L/10 starts. Im betting he is in trouble  vs a Tigers  side that finished the season by going 31-13 (70.5%) in their last 44 games . In the current best-of-three Wild Card era, the team that won Game 1 is 8-0 in the series and 7-1 in Game 2,. This up trending Motown crew won yesterday, and are viable bets again considering the power outage the Astros have experienced of late. 

Detroit in road games on the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse in the second half of the season are 38-17 dating back to last season.

Houston in home games on the money line vs. an AL team with an slugging percentage .410 or worse in the second half of the season are 14-25 dating back to last season.

Play on the Tigers to win 

NYM starter LUIS SEVERINO when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) has seen the total eclipsed in 13 of the L/15 with the average combined score clicking in at 10.9 rpg. SEVERINOs two most recent starts vs the Brewers both eclipsed the Total ( 13 combined runs 2024) and 10 combined runs 2023).He surrendered six runs (three earned) on 11 hits over five innings in a 7-6 loss to the Brewers on March. SEVERINO when playing in the 1rst game of a playoff series in his career has seen all 4 go over the total. SEVERINO 1-4 with a 5.15 ERA in 11 postseason appearences, including 10 starts.    LUIS SEVERINO in road starts when pitching in day games has seena combined average of 12 rpg scored. It must also be noted that the Mets bullpen might be a little tired after yesterdays double header vs the Braves. 

Milwaukee Brewers starter FREDDY PERALTA as a home favorite of -125 to -175 is 6-0 over L/6 with a combined average score of 9.7 rpg scored. PERALATA is 0-1 with a 3.46 ERA in four postseason outings, including two starts. He allowed four runs over five innings in last year's 5-2 loss to Arizona in Game 2. 

Play over

Ragans the Royals starter for this tilt has been strong on the road this season with a  2.87 ERA, and he is backed  by a bullpen  tha.Over the last 30 days, has garnered a solid  2.68 ERA with a 2.72 FIP in 94 innings. It must also be noted that the Royals are also the best defensive team in MLB, and in a post season game that becomes paramount according to my projections on this series and game.

Meanwhile, the Orioles will counter with their ace Burnes who has pitched well overall this season, but own a slightly bloated 4.04 ERA since August spanning 10 starts. His current regression is not a good omen , considering the Orioles rank  26th in MLB with a 4.93 ERA since July 1st. 

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 - with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.50 the last 10 games against opponent with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.50 the last 5 games are 32-15 L/4 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Game one screams value with the underdog. 

Play on the KC Royals to win 

 Megill goes to the hill for the  Mets in the first game of this doubleheader vs the Braves. The righty  made just  five sub par starts on the road this season, recording a bloated   4.81 ERA . Megill has had command issues   allowing 3.7 walks per nine innings which is troublesome  Note: Mets bullpdn ranks 16th in MLB with a 3.97 ERA.  Megill and his bullpen contingent  goes against a  Braves offense that is averaging 4.5 runs per game since All-Star Break, and rank third in the league in home runs. \Meanwhile.the Braves will send rookie Spencer Schwellenbach (8-7, 3.47 ERA)  to the hill.Schwellenbach took down  the Mets this past Tuesday, allowing one run in seven innings. He has allowed up just one run in 14 innings in two starts against New York and projects to dominate again. He is backed by a Atlanta bullpen that ranks 3rd in MLB with a 3.25 ERA. Advantage Atlanta. Note: I know has struggled a bit at the plate recently but it must be noted that  Atlanta in home games after batting .200 or worse over a 3 game span have been dominant scoring an average of 7.0 rpg while allowing an average of just 1.3 rpg cashing 7 straight times. 17-61 L/4 seasons. 

Play on the Braves to win 

Neither the Giants (79-80) or Cardinals (81-78) will be participating in the postseason next week so both should be just going through the motions. key trends: The Giants enter the series tied with the Chicago White Sox for the fewest home runs in the majors hit at home this season with 64.

Cards hurler MILES MIKOLAS road starts vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse. have gone under 11 of the L/12 times dating back to the 2023 season with a combined average of 6.1 rpg scored. San Francisco home games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) in the second half of the season are 12-1 UNDER with a combined average of 6.1 runs per game dating back to last season. Mikolas owns a 4-1 record along with a 2.88 ERA against the Giants in nine career appearances, including five starts.

SF righty starter  Landen Roupp (1-1, 2.70),  has been in top form since becoming a starter earlier this month. He, has allowed just two runs and 10 hits in 15 innings and projects to have another quality start. 

Play under

Padres starting pitcher tonight Joe Musgrove enters this game in top tier form as is evident by  recording a stingy 2.05 ERA with 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings since Aug 12 when he came back from an injury. He has allowed  one run  or less in 6 of his L/8  starts and gets the nod here on a value line where his backed by a offense that is scoring 5.1 rpg on the road this season, which amounts to more than 0.6 home/away diff. Meanwhile, the dodgers will respond with Walker Buehler who has garnered a hefty  5.63 ERA after Tommy John surgery. He goes against a  Fathers  offense that leads Major League Baseball with a .274 batting average vs right-handed pitching. When he falters and I bet he does, the Dodgers righty is backed by a Dodgers bullpen that ranks  16th in MLB since the start of July  with a 4.29 ERA. With the Padres still believing they can achieve a division title they will be motivated to play hard, which makes for viable underdog for us to back. 

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher - good NL offensive team 4.7 or more runs/game) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA 3.75 or better ), starting a pitcher who gave up 2 or less earned runs in his last 2 outings are 59-17.since the 2020 season.

Padres manager MIKE SHILDT in road games on the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season has won 18 fo 25 times.

Play on Padres to win 

Projections for this game are based on a trends based set of situations:

Arizonas starting pitcher ZAC GALLEN starts vs. division opponents have gone. a perfect 6-0 (100%) OVER L/6 with an average over/under of 8.5, .The average combined score clicks in at 13.3 ppg.ZAC GALLEN in 7  home starts  vs. division opponents have seen a combined average of 10.7 rpg scored.  Arizona games at home when the total is 7 to 8.5 are 30-12 OVER this season with a combined average of 10.9 rpg scored. Arizona games against division opponents are 32-14 OVER witn a combined average og 11.2 rpg scored.

San Francisco road games off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog are 5-0 OVER with a combined average of 13.2 rpg scored. )Giants won 11-0 yesterday as pups)Arizona games revenging a home loss vs opponent of 6 runs or more are 7-0 OVER L/7 with a combined average 13.4 rpg. Also Arizona home games revenging a loss where opponent scored 10 or more runs have gone over 5 straight times with a combined average of 15.2 rpg scored.

SF has averaged 5.4 rpg in their L/7 overall.

Play on the OVER

Arizona is averaging 5.4 rpg in their L/7 overall and 5.8 rpg vs NL West opposition this season.

 Giants starter Logan Webb goes to the hill for  the Giants. The right hander has allowed 3 or more runs in  his last five trips to the mound. Webb owns a average at best road ERA of 4.36 ERA . He is backed by a bullpen that is ranked 16th in the league with a 3.96 ERA. Webb goes against a Dbacks top ranked offense that is producing 5.5 runs per game  and 6 rpg vs the NL West.  Webb has seen 5 of this L/6 starts eclipse the total. Meanwhile, the Dbacks starter Pfaadt has  allowed at  three runs or more  in six of his last seven starts while garnering a 5.04 road ERA overall this season.  He is backed by a  bullpen that has recorded a  4.42 ERA, ranking  24th in MLB. They go against a SF side that has averaged 4.7 rpg vs the NL West.  . Pfaadt is 8-1-1 OVER in his L/10 starts. 

  Note:San Francisco games as a road underdog of +100 to +150 have gone over in 24 of 33 games this season with a combined average of 9.4 rpg scored.Arizona home games vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) have gone over in 23 of 30 games with a combined average of 12 rpg scored.

Play over

Phillies starting pitcher Nola has garnered a  3.54 ERA which  ranks him  24th, with his  1.173 WHIP ranking him 28th in MLB. He projects for an average at best outing Meanwhile,  Nate Pearson (2-2, 4.71) will go the hill  for the Cubs on Monday and projects to get lit up in this spot play. 

 Chicago Cubs road games after 3 or more consecutive home games have gone over 10 of the L/11 times witch a combined average of 11 rpg scored.Philadelphia games revenging a loss where opponent scored 10 or more runs have gone over 7 straight times with a combined average of 12.2 rpg scored.Philadelphia home games after having lost 4 of their last 5 games with a combined average of 13 rpg scored.

Play over

 Brewers starter Montas has  pitched well since being traded .In his L/9 starts with the Milwaukee Brewers, he has recorded a .3.55 ERA  He is backed by MLB best bullpen  (3.21 ERA ).  Meanwhile, Arizona starter Jordan Montgomery gets the start for the Diamondbacks and goes against a offense that averages 4.8 rpg on the season .  The southpaw owns a inflated  6.23 ERA. Hes only starting today after being regulated to the bullpen because of injuries. He is backed by a bullpen that ranks 24th in MLB with a  4.39 ERA. The Brewers have had a nagover since clinching a play off spot, losing 3 straight, but now have to get back in a groove and will motivated to perform .PAT MURPHY on the money line after 3 or more consecutive losses is a perfect 9-0 with the victories being of conclusive variety - average rpg diff clicking in at +4.4.Milwaukee on the money line after having lost 4 of their last 5 games a perfect 6-0 L/6 opportunities. Note: Arizona on the money line after allowing 4 runs or less 4 straight games are 0-6 L/6 opportunities.

 Brewers starter Montas has  pitched well since being traded .In his L/9 starts with the Milwaukee Brewers, he has recorded a .3.55 ERA  He is backed by MLB best bullpen  (3.21 ERA ).  Meanwhile, Arizona starter Jordan Montgomery gets the start for the Diamondbacks and goes against a offense that averages 4.8 rpg on the season .  The southpaw owns a inflated  6.23 ERA. Hes only starting today after being regulated to the bullpen because of injuries. He is backed by a bullpen that ranks 24th in MLB with a  4.39 ERA. The Brewers have had a nagover since clinching a play off spot, losing 3 straight, but now have to get back in a groove and will motivated to perform .PAT MURPHY on the money line after 3 or more consecutive losses is a perfect 9-0 with the victories being of conclusive variety - average rpg diff clicking in at +4.4.Milwaukee on the money line after having lost 4 of their last 5 games a perfect 6-0 L/6 opportunities. Note: Arizona on the money line after allowing 4 runs or less 4 straight games are 0-6 L/6 opportunities.

Atlantas starter  Fried current form is a concern because he is on pace for his first under-.500 season since 2018, when he went 1-4 as a part-time starter. Against the Marlins, he is just 5-4 with a 4.44 ERA in 15 career outings and his team lost 7-0 lat time he faced them on Aug 4th. .Hes definitely looking to be on the downside of of his career. He is however fortunate enough to be backed by a offense that has averaged 6 rpg in their L/7 games. Meanwhile, Miami will start right-hander Adam Oller (1-4, 5.40 ERA) on Saturday,Hhis career numbers in the majors include a 4-13 record and a 6.66 ERA in 34 appearances (21 starts). Needless to say its highly probable he gets lit up today vs a Atlanta side of a 4-3 upset loss yesterday to Miami. Im betting both offenses get their licks in this afternoon and this number is eclisped. 

Miami games in home games are : 54-19 OVER this season (74%) with an average over/under of 8.1 and a combined average score of 10.4 rpg scored. Miami games at home when the total is 7 to 8.5 are : 49-16 for a (75%) with an average over/under of 8.0, with a combined average of 10.3 rpg scored. Miami home games in the second half of the season with a combined average of 11 rpg scored.Miami home games in day games. are 24-6 OVER this season with a combined average 24-6 OVER for a 11.6 rpg scored.Miami home games vs. good fielding teams - averaging 0.6 or less errors/game in the second half of the season with a combined average of 11 rpg scored.Miami home games vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start. are 21-6 this season, with a combined average of 11.6 rpg.Miami home games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season are 13-3 OVER with a combined average of 13.2 rpg scored.

Dbacks starter  Gallen   in his most recent outing versus the Brewers on September 15, gave up three earned on six hits and two walks in 5 innings for a no-decision and according to my projections similar data should be recorded in the rematch. Meanwhile,  the Brewers are sending  Colin Rea to the hill. The right hander owns a  12-5 record but a slightly elevated  4.14 ERA in 29 games (25 starts). Rea  has recorded a  4.52 ERA in 91 career games (74 starts) and projects to allow plus 3 runs in this start according to my projections. 

Note: Arizonas key offensive  cog   , Marte is 3-for-3 with a double and a home run vs Rea.Last year against Colin Rea, Marte was 3-for-3 with a double and a home run at the plate.

Arizonas starter when starting/playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) has seen him garner a 6-0 OVER record with a combined average of 14.2 rpg scored. Meanwhile, when Brewers starter COLIN REA starts as a home underdog of +100 or higher he has seen 15 of 17 starts eclipse the Total with a combined average of 12.4 rpg scored.

Arizona games vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season have gone over 16 of 20 times with a combined average of 13.3 ppg scored.

Milwaukee home games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start. have gone over 11 of the L/12 times, with a combined average of 10 rpg scored.

Both these offenses are in top tier form, with the Dbacks averaging 6.7 rpg of production in thier L/7 games overall, and on the flipside, the Brewers are scoring an average of 5.6 rpg in they're L/7 trips to the diamonds. 

Play over

Dodgers starter Flaherty is off his  worst start with his new team. On Saturday against the Atlanta Braves, the veteran righty allowed four runs on five hits in three innings in a ugly 10-1 loss and projects for another average at best start . Meanwhile, the Marlins start Cabrera Cabrera who is a walk machine issuing  4.4 per nine innings Yes, he has elite fastball, but the Dodgers hit those kind of pitchers very hard. His last couple of appearances have been strong, but it must be note EDWARD CABRERA  after giving up 2  or less earned runs in his last 2 outings has seen a combined average 9.5 rpg go on the board with the opposition producing  an average of 7.5 rpg across  the plate. 

Note: JACK FLAHERTY road starts in September games have gone over 6 straight times dating back to the 2022 campaign with a combined average of 14.5 rpg scored .

LA Dodgers games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse in the second half of the season have gone 23-7 to the over with a combined average of 11 rpg scored.

LA Dodgers games vs. NL teams allowing 4.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season are 15-4 over with a combined 12.4 rpg scored.

SKIP SCHUMAKER road games vs. NL teams scoring 5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season are 10-1 OVER with a combined average of 13.8 rpg scored.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 70 games (+18.90 Units / 25% ROI)

Miami in home games this season are 53-18 OVER with a combined average of 10.2 rpg scored.Miami games as a home underdog of +150 to +200 have gone over 15 of 18 times with a combined average of 12.3 rpg scored. Miami home games in day games this season are 23-6 OVER with a combined average of 11.1 rpg scored.

Miami home games vs. an NL team with an slugging percentage of .440 or better in the second half of the season are a perfect 6-0 OVER dating back to last season with a combined average of 13.5 rpg scored.

The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 53 of their last 77 games at home (+32.15 Units / 38% ROI)

Play over

Starting pitchers: Astros: Framber Valdez (14-6, 2.91 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 159 strikeouts); Padres: Dylan Cease (13-11, 3.58 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 215 strikeouts) Cease is 0-3 with a 4.18 ERA in six career starts against Houston, averaging just over five innings per start. 

Padres suffered a brutal extra inning loss to the Astros yesterday and are now in a major emotional letdown situation. Astros are  a perfect  7-0  on the road against NL teams with a .550 win pct with starter Framber Valdez in the last five seasons.  

Play on the Astros 

 San Diego Padres starter King  has been extremely consistent as is evident by  having allowed three earned runs or less  in 12 straight starts and entering this tilt owns a 3.06  ERA on the season. The Fathers right hander  is backed by a bullpen that ranks 6th  with a 3.07 ERA. They face a Houston  team that is less proficient offensively on the road than at home   averaging 4.5 rpg on the away  ranking 16th and 13th in slugging percentage on the road. King is 3-1 with a 2.61 ERA and 12 strikeouts in his career against the Houston Astros.

Meanwhile, Hunter Brown goes to the hill for the Astros. The righty is coming off allowing 5 runs to the As last time out, and now goes against a Padres offense that ranks No.1 vs right handed pitching with a .274 Ba, while producing 5.3 rpg in the process. Bottom line here is Michael King is a stud on the hill , while the Padres offense is an advantageous uptrending situation  that deserves our investment dollars . 

The Padres have won each of their last six games against AL West opponents following a home win. ( The Padres won last night 3-1) The Astros have lost six of their last seven games at Petco Park  when the Fathers have an above .500 record.

Play on San Diego to win

 BoSox  are  0-10  in road matchups against TB/NYY by starter Nick Pivetta. 

Brewers are a sub .500 side vs  LH starters (19-23, -10.35 units) starters like Phillies starter Suarez. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is is 13-3  vs NL Central teams with starter Ranger Suarez in L4 seasons and  is 10-4  in away night game starts against teams with a winning record by Ranger Suarez in L4 seasons.,  Suarez pitches his best ball on the road where he has garnered a solid 2.60 ERA. Pitching matchup edge goes to the Phillies as they edge out Civale  for Milwaukee who owns a bloated 4.57 ERA.

Play on the Phillies 

Cleveland will send  Boyd (2-1, 2.18 ERA) to the hill for  his 7th start. The veteran lefty owns a solid  0.91 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 33 innings of quality ball. He is backed by MLB top bullpen.

Minnesota's starter Lopez owns a  5-1 record along with a stingy, 1.79 ERA,  in his L/45 1/3 IP of work ( 9 ER, 7 BB, 41 K, 1.13 WHIP)

Both pitchers are in top form g and project to go deep into this tilt  which provides an  edge with the under  bet I am making. The Under is 3-1 in Boyd’s last  4 starts. The  total has not been exclipsed in  3 of Lopezs last for  4 trips to the hill  . 

The Guardians  took out the Rays yesterday winning by a  2-0  count behind RHP Ben Lively. The Under cashed in all 4 games of the series at home vs the Rays this past weekend , with the Guardians  averaging 2.8 runs per game (RPG) on offense, while allowing just 2.3 RPG.The Under is 12-1-2 in the guardians L/15 trips to the diamonds.

The  Guardians earned the 3-game sweep  when these teams played back in May while allowing a total of 8 runs  as the Under cashed in 2 of the 3 outings.

Play on the under

Lopez the Twins starter did not have a good start to his season, but hes really come around down the stretch . Pablo Lopez is 16-4  in the short chalk line range of -118 to -130 in the L5 seasons and goes against a Cleveland team that struggles at times offensively as  is evident by  tjheir wRC+ of only 91 in the second half of the season, which ranks 23rd in that span. Note:(((wRAA per PA + league runs per PA) + (league runs per PA - ballpark factor x league runs per PA) / league wRC per plate appearance, not including pitchers)) x 100.

Advantage Twins

Buehler the Dodgers starter has really struggled on the  road as is evident by garnering a   7.77 ERA. He is backed by a Dodgers bullpen with a  4.26  ERA ranking 17th in MLB since the beginning of July. Meanwhile, his pitching opponent from the Braves -Morton- owns a 3.69 ERA at home this season and deserves respect here as. short favorite as he is backed by a Braves bullpen that owns a 3.20 ERA since the beginning July ranking 8th in MLB. The Braves need wins as they look for. a post season spot  and this is a good opportunity for one here tonight. 

 Tampa Bay’s starting pitcher Taj Bradley despite of being a top tier hulrer, is in a big time funk having garnered a 8.78 ERA over his last seven starts while recording a  0-5 record. In his current form he is fade material. Especially here against a Guardians side that backs their starter Ben Lively with the leagues top bullpen. Considering how weak and inconsistent the Rays offense has performed  of late averaging just 2.6 rpg in their L/7 trips to the diamonds it will be an easy decision to take the home side. 

Play on Cleveland Guardians to win 

NYY starter Cortes (4.08 ERA)  has allowed four runs or more  in five of his L/9  starts.  He is backed by a bullpen that ranks 13th in MLB since the beginning of July with a 3.95 ERA. Meanwhile,Criswell the BoSox starter  has garnered a  4.11 ERA overall this season and he is backed by a struggling bullpen that has recorded a ugly  6.18 ERA since the start of July which ranks dead last in MLB.  Considering the pitching data and the fact these two teams own strong offensive numbers since the all star break both producing the 2nd and 3rd most runs per game  and ranking top two in slugging percentage its and easy decision here to back an over wager cashing.   

Play over

Brewers with a line of  -120 to +135 line range  with starter Colin Rea in the last two seasons are 20-5 and tonight he gives the Giants an edge on this value line. He goes against a Giants side that ranks  27th with a .270 wOBA  since Aug 11`  and ranks 26th in wRC+ at 80. They are batting .214/.273/.370 in that span with a 29.2% K%.  Meanwhile, Snell the Giants starter always seems to have walk issues falre up and against one of baseballs most patient batting orders he could easily find himself in trouble. Advantage Brewers. 

Play on the Brewers to win 

Mariners, despite Tuesday’s setback to the Padres,  has won 4 of the past 6 trips to the dimaonds and have the edge tonight playing in depression mode as they fight for a play voff spot. Seattle starter Woo  owns a (7-2, 2.36 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 0.85 WHIP, 0.8 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 in 99 IP and gives his team an edge here in this spot play. Npte: Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 - with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70%, like Woo with a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season (AL) are 41-15 since 1997.Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 - with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70%, with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.200 the last 10 games are 38-14 for qa 73% conversion rate for bettors -Woo qualifies.

The Orioles enter Tuesday tilt against the Bosox on a three-game losing streak and 1 1/2 games behind the New York Yankees (83-61) for first place in the AL East. They are in a desperation mode type situation and according to my data matchup well here tonight against their hosts. 

We have a value line to bet into today with the Orioles.Boston has been a below .500 team at Fenway this season and do not deserve this much respect.  BAL is 13-2  in Divisional Games with starter Dean Kremer in the last two seasons.

Play on the Orioles to win on the moneyline 

The Mariners in desperation mode (play off hunt)  send  George Kirby, (11-10  3.61 ERA) to the hill to take on the visiting San Diego Padres. Kirbys been extremely consistent at home where he has garnered a 2.94 ERA . The Mariners also play their best baseball at home where they have norched a  41-28 record. When needed Kirby is backed by a bullpen that owns a .369 ERA since the start of July. Meanwhile,Yu Darvish goes to hill for just the 2nd time since late May. His first time back on the hill he lasted just  2 2/3 innings  and in his minor league rehab outing  he was smashed for six runs in 3 1/3 innings of ugly work.  In his current form he is fade material and considering the Mariners are in urgent needs of wins to stay in the post season mix you can bet they are in motivated.  

Play on the Seattle Mariners to win

Walker Buehler starts for the Dodgers. Buehler’s still trying to find some balance as heals from  Tommy John surgery, but right now he is currently uptrending. The Dodgers righty  has made 12 starts since returning from his second Tommy John surgery and has given up just two earned runs in each of his last two trips to the hill. .Meanwhile, Kyle Hendricks gets the start for Chicago. The Cubs righty owns a 6.60 ERA, and a 7.89 ERA on the road. What also is  interesting is that in his L/5 losses dating back to early July his team has been shutout each time, and in the two losses previous to that he also lacked run support with 1 run in those defeats.So in his L/12 trips, (5-7) the  7 losses have seen his team support him with a. total of 2 runs. With Buehler pitching well recently and Hendricks inconsistencies, Im betting the team comes way with a conclusive victory. 

Reid Detmers and David Festa  go to hill today for the  Angels and Twins at Target Field this Monday evening. Detmers after a long lay off made his first  MLB start in over three months allowing just 2 runs on  10 strikeouts over six innings against the LA Dodgers last week . Im betting he continues his positive regression in this one vs a lineup he matches up well against as the Twins are struggling of late, swinging wildly with a  25.9% K% rate. The Halos bullpen  rank 5th in the league the last 30 days. 

Meanwhile, the Angels  offense is also struggling  and in the last month , they own a massive  26.3%. 

Going against a D  Festa  who  has a 3.13 ERA with a 2.94 FIP over his L/ 37.1 innings of work and  having only  allowed three runs or less  since being recalled  in late July a limited offensive response from the Angels must be expected  .  

Dodgers starter Jack Flaherty goes to the ill  for the Dodgers. In his starts  with the Detroit Tigers and Dodgers this season , he has garnered a solid  3.01 ERA with 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings. The veteran righty has now allowed allowed three runs or less in eight of his last nine trips tp the hill. He is backed by the the Dodgers bullpen that has recorded a viable  3.62 bullpen ERA which is 5th best in the league . Flaherty has seen 8 of his L/12 starts vs AL Central opponents stay under in 8 of 12 starts.  Meanwhile, Tanner Bibee takes the ball for the Cleveland He been a quality option for the  Guardians on the road  where  he owns a  2.71 ERA . He is backed by  MLBs top bullpen with a  2.76 bullpen ERA . bibbee has seen 10 of his L/14 interleague tilts stay on the low side of the offered Total. Bibbee is games with a total of 8 to 8.5 has seen the total stay under 12 of 16 times . 

Cleveland road games vs. NL teams like LAD scoring 4.5 or more runs/game on the season are a perfect 9-0 UNDER for a 100% conversion rate for a 85% ROI.

Play under

Tanner Bibee takes the ball for the Cleveland He been a quality option for the  Guardians on the road  where  he owns a  2.71 ERA . He is backed by  MLBs top bullpen with a  2.76 bullpen ERA and with this in mind in a game that Im betting will be a pitcher duel a close game is my projected out come with the value residing with runline visitor. ( Guardians )

TANNER BIBEE in road starts on the run line when playing against a team with a winning record is  17-0 (100%) dating back to the 2023 season. 

Play on the Guardians +1.5 

Red Sox starter C.Criswell owns a 1.50 ERA in his L/3 starts and in 43.7 innings of work at night has posted a 2.68 ERA. His L/5 starts have all seen the under hit with only one game seeing more than 6 runs scored with none eclipsing this totals plateau of 9. Meanwhile, Crochet the White Sox hurler, has not been allowed to go deep since early August and I expect he will limited to no more more than 4 innings of work, and then the bullpen will take over. The White Sox lefty starter has seen 17 of his 25 starts stay under the total this season and 10 of 15 stay under in night games . On the road on a ML of -125- to +125 he has seen all 3 of his appearances stay under. 

Both these offenses are stumbling of late with the White Sox averaging  2.3 rpg in their L/7 outings with the Red Sox averaging an even lower 2.1 rpg during the same span.

The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.75 Units / 28% ROI)The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 23 away games (+5.45 Units / 18% ROI)

BoSox home games vs. a team with a bad bullpen whose ERA is 4.70 or worse in 13 games this season have seen a combined average of 6.7 rpg scored.

The average score of these games was Red Sox 3.4, Opponents 3.3.The total has gone under in   9 of the  last 10 games between the BoSox and White Sox at Fenway Park  with a combined average of  5.6  RPG going on the board )

Play under 

For whatever reason the Braves are  1-10  in the last 11 games against Toronto dating back to the 2020 seasoon. – The ROI on this trend is -104%- they Jays have alos won 9 straight in this series and get the nod here again tonight with Gausman on the hill for them.Gausman has allowed two or fewer runs in four of his past five starts and must be respected in his current form to keep the Jays in this tilt. Gausman has made two career starts against the Braves, compiling a 1.32 ERA in 13 2/3 innings. 

Play on Toronto 

BoSox starter Pivetta is 1-0 with a 1.72 career ERA in eight appearances (five starts) against the White Sox. Meanwhile, Davis Martin , 3.62 ERA goes to the hill for Chicago  . The 27-year-old has never faced Boston.Last Saturday against the Mets, Martin struck out a season-high six in five innings of four-run ball but took the 5-3 loss. He had allowed just four earned runs over his previous four starts and 21 innings.

These pitchers are projected to limit both batting orders and help keep this tilt on the low side of the number. 

The total has gone under in   8 of the  last 9 games between the BoSox and White Sox at Fenway Park  with a combined average of  5.8 RPG going on the board )

Play under 

Seattles starter Bryan Woo (6-2, 2.30 ERA) goes to hill for Seattle. The right-hander has dominated Oakland hitters in four career starts and not allowed a run in 21 1/3 innings against the Athletics and gives his team an edge in this affair. Woo has allowed three hits and one walk while striking out  nine in 10 1/3 innings against As this season.  The Mariners bats exploded for  16 hits and recorded  a season-high run total in a 16-3 win  vs the  Athletics yesterday and project to match up well vs Estes here this afternoon. 

Play on the Seattle Mariners to win 

Keider Montero goes to hill  for the  Detroit Tigers this Wednesday. night. The Motown righty owns a  5.17 ERA which includes  3.1 walks allowed per nine innings, and has allowed four or more runs in five of his L/9 trips to the mound  and is backed by a bullpen that is ranked 11th with a 3.80 bullpen ERA. He now goes against a Fathers  offense that owns the No.1  ranked  batting average against right-handed pitching in the league vs .274 . Since the All-Star Break, the Padres have averaged 5.3 runs per game, ranking 2nd in the  National League.

The Detroit Tigers rank 3rd in the league for home runs allowed this season (138).

.Meanwhile, Yu Darvish get the ball for the  Padres. Darvish will be making his first MLB appearance since  late May. In his only  minor league rehab outing , he allowed six runs in 3 1/2 innings of sub par work, and projects to get beaten around again vs a Detroit team that averages 4.3 rpg on the road this season. Darvish is backed by a bullpen that ranks 13th with a 3.84 ERA.

Considering the pitching matchup and the offensive prowess of the Padres Im betting enough runs here for the Total to be eclipsed. 

The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 62 games (+12.85 Units / 19% ROI)The San Diego Padres have only hit the Game Total Under in 56 of their last 128 games (-22.80 Units / -16% ROI)

Play on the OVER 

Nathan Eovaldi is 22-5  in Sept/Oct/Nov since 2020 and get the nod here as short fav tonight. The veteran  right-hander  (10-7, 3.60 ERA) and goes for  his fourth straight quality start  after recording  a season high with 10 strikeouts in his last  trip to the hill  a 2-1 victory  vs the Chicago White Sox last Thursday. Meanwhile, the Yankees will respond with. right-hander Marcus Stroman (10-6, 3.81 ERA) . He is 3-3 with a 5.34 ERA in six career starts against Texas.Stroman is 3-3 with a 4.95 ERA spanning his last eight starts. He has allowed  56 hits in 43 2/3 innings in that stretch and is vulnerable to be being lit up.Yankees hurlews  have allowed a .308 average on balls hit into play in their last two road series,  and they are 4-6 last 10 overall, and not that cohesive of late. 

Play on the Rangers to win 

 Milwaukee starter Rea (12-4, 3.70 ERA) will go against  Cardinals  right-hander Sonny Gray (12-9, 3.96).

Brewers starter Colin Rea has been cash in the bank in the -120 to +135 line range, recording a  20-4  mark  in the last two seasons for his team. He is 3-1 with a 3.51 ERA in his past seven starts and gives the Brewers an edge here tonight.. He has faced the Cardinals  one time during this campaign , throwing five scoreless innings in a 2-0 victory at St. Louis in April without  getting the decision. Meanwhile, his pitching opponent Gray is 4-5 with a 3.31 ERA in 15 career starts vs. the Brewers. He did pitch well last time out, but that snapped a 3 gamew losing streak, and Im betting on more negative regression here this evening. 

The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 81 of their last 139 games (+14.65 Units / 8% ROI)

Brewers to win 

Patrick Corbin  the Nationals starter today against the Marlins has pitched decently of late but  he is due for negative regression.   In road games this season he has recorded    6.52 ERA  with opposition batting orders averaging a blistering  .299 BA .  He is backed by a bullpen that owns a 4.10 ERA on the season ranking 22nd in the league .Meanwhile, the Marlins will send out Meyer who enters this tilt with a 5.44 ERA and consistently allows alot of hard contact and an average of 2.1 HRs per 9 innings. He is backed by a bullpen that has garnered a 4.16 ERA ranking 23rd in the league. I know both these offenses have been inconsistent this season, but the pitching matchup favors some early runs and the bullpens when needed will offer below average support giving us an edge with an over wager. 

Fourteen of the Marlins' L/ 17 home games have gone OVER the total .

Play over 

 Luis Severino the Mets starter enters this tilt against the BoSox having  allowed  three runs or more runs in four of his last six starts the diamonds . In his last 11 starts, he has a 4.94 ERA . He is 5-7 with a 4.06 ERA in 16 regular season games (14 starts) against the Red Sox in his career. The right-hander is also 0-1 with a 14.54 ERA in two postseason appearances (one start) against Boston. Severino is backed by  a Mets bullpen that entered Sunday with a 4.39 ERA , which ranks 20th in  MLB ,  Meanwhile  ,Red Sox starting pitcher Brayan Bello enters this trip to the hill with a  4.66 ERA with 3.4 walks per nine innings despite of a solid W/L record. I know hes off. strong shutout effort vs inconsistent Blue Jays team last time out, but now Im expecting immediate regression the mean .  He is backed by a struggling bullpen which is  evident by garnering a ugly 5.96   ERA since the start of July ranking dead last in the the league.

Both offenses are viable with the Mets entering Sunday 11th in the league in scoring with 4.8 runs per game , while the BoSox producing an average  5.2 runs per game on the road ranks third in the league. 

Both these pitchers and their bullpens, look to be in deep here v two productive offenses.

Play on the over

Reds starter Aguiar has allowed 10 runs on 17 hits in 14 innings of sub par work.The Reds righty has also allowed five HRS  and has seven strikeouts out of 63 batters faced so balls are in play when hes on the mound which is not a good omen for slowing down this Houston offense, that is producing a much better pace since the all star game and are top 10 offense since Aug 1st vs right handed hurlers like Aguiar . Meanwhile veteran hurler Verlander enters this game previously been on a long lay pff due to injury and  enters this tilt  with a 4.16 ERA, 3.79 xERA, and has allowed  allowed six runs on 11 hits in 10 innings of below average work. The Astros- bulpen is pretty tired so when Verlander leaves the game the Reds runs could keep coming helping with what I bet is an over wager opportunity. 

Play on the OVER

Schwellenbach  has pitched brilliantly for the Braves this season and  enters this game  with a 3.72 ERA, 3.04 xERA, and a 3.11 FIP in 15 starts with a top tier  102/18 K/BB ratio. Needless to say he gives a Braves a quality hurler for this Sunday night tilt. The last time he worked against the Phillies a week and half ago he owned them, recording 9 strikeouts in 6.2 innings of work. He throws heat and needs to be respected here behind a Braves team that is picking speed in the hunt for a wild card spot. I know Nola the Phillies starter has a had a good season but his metrics are showing regression since the all star break, and could degrade more here vs a hungry team. 

Atlanta is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games.Atlanta is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road.

Play on the Braves

 The Royals starter today Alec Marsh has not been much of a  work horse in recent outings and has not gone past the  sixth inning since July 10, while recording a  4.67 ERA .  Marsh is winless over his last four trips to the hill (three starts), going 0-1 with a 5.28 ERA. He  is backed by a  bullpen that is ranked  25th in the league with a 4.45 ERA. The Astros offense  rank 11th in the league at home averaging 4.7 rpg. .

Meanwhile, the Astros counter with Ronel Blanco who according to my pitcher vs  power rankings does not match up well here vs a Royals offense,   that ranks seventh in the league producing  4.85 rpg. Since the All-Star Break, the Royals have been on fire as is evident by their  .277 BA  and 5.6 rpg  entering weekend action which ranks 2nd in the league. The Astros righty is  0-3 with a 4.69 ERA over his last eight starts.

Both these pitchers are down trending and Im betting on some hard hitting action this afternoon in Houston. 

Play over

On Saturday, Gavin Stone (11-5, 3.33 ERA) goes to hill for the  Dodgers and on the flipside Merrill Kelly (4-0, 3.98) of the Diamondbacks in a battle of right-handers. Kelly, in his career vs Los Angeles, going 0-11 with a 5.49 ERA in 16 career starts. Rinse and repeat here with what is a explosive Dodgers team. Yes, I know the Dbacks have done well against Gavin Stone this season, but this is the type of pitcher that can adjust and get back on the right trap. 

Dodgers to win

Left-hander Yusei Kikuchi (6-9, 4.39 ERA) is the expected  starter for Houston on Saturday vs the Royals. Kikuchi has pitched decently since coming over to the Astros from the Jays in a trade, but  owns a  a 5.80 ERA over eight career starts against the Royals and my projections estimate he gets lit up here today. Meanwhile,Left-hander Cole Ragans (10-8, 3.28 ERA)goes to the hill  for the Royals . He has also pitched quality ball this season, but has struggled vs the Astros in his so far short career garnering a  5.40 ERA in six career appearances (five starts)s. After yesterdays 3-2 combined score between these teams where the Astros came back late for the win, Im now expecting a more aggressive offensive effort from both sides and a score that eclipses this very beatable total. 

Nine of the Royals' last 12 night games as underdogs have gone OVER the total.

Play on the over 

The Dodgers will start veteran  Clayton Kershaw against  the Diamondbacks tonight in Arizona. The future HOF lefty  has looked good this season on limited work, but he is backed by a tired looking relief core that has  recorded a less than reliable  4.38 ERA since the start of July ranking them , 20th in the league in that bullpen category . Now with those exhausted looking relievers  going against an explosive Dbacks offnese averaging just under 5.5 rpg, the Dodgers could easily find themselves in a beatdown situation. 

Meanwhile, Arizona will send out  Gallen to the hill to face the Dodgers. He.has  been a very serviceable pitcher here in the desert dating back to last season as is evident by  his  2.74 ERA .  He is backed by a up-trending bullpen that has recorded a viable  3.18  ERA , ranking fifth in the league since the beginning of July.  I know the Dodgers are also an explosive offensive side, but here at home the Dbacks have the edge especially playing with this team trying to garner some leverage in the chase for post season standings race. 

The Diamondbacks have won each of their last seven games as underdogs.The Dodgers have lost four of their last five games as favorites against the Diamondbacks following a win.

Play on the Diamondbacks to win 

Red Sox starting pitcher tonight vs the Blue Jays Crawford  has recorded a bloated   8.13 ERA while allowing a whopping  14 home runs spanning  his L/ 34 1/3 innings of work since the all star break and enters this game in down trending fashion. Crawford is backed by a  bullpen  that has garnered a ugly 6.09 ERA  ranking 29th in MLB since the beginning of July. The BoSox pitching staff now goes against a suddenly explosive Jays batting order that has averaged  5.5 runs per game since the All-Star Break ranking 3rd in the league. Note: Crawford is 1-1 with a 4.26 ERA in five appearances (four starts) against Toronto.

Meanwhile, the Jays will respond with Brad Francis that despite of a top tier quality performance last time out, still owns a 4.02 ERA on the season. His metrics do point towards regression in what my projections point to  be an average at best effort here vs a Red Sox batting order that has generated 4.7 rpg since the all str break. WhenFrancis leaves this game, he is backed by a bullpen, that owns a unsteady  4.82 ERA ranking 28th in the league.  

The teams have gone over the total in 12 of the L/18 here in Fenway. 

Play on the OVER 

The Arizona Dbacks will  send E. Rodriguez to the hill to face the NY Mets. The lefty hurler  has allowed at least three runs in two of his three starts this season while garnering a  3.94 ERA. He is backed by a  bullpen that ranks 18th in ERA with a 4.09 ERA. They go against a Mets offense, that is heating up and off a 8 run production performance yesterday and are now averaging 4.9 rpg on the road and up-trending offensively. 

Meanwhile, the Mets  will respond with Luis Severino.  The righty has recorded a  a 3.84 ERA this season but is currently in regression mode having  allowed  four or more runs  in three of his last five trips to the hill. He is backed by a bullpen that owns a 4.03 ERA ranking 17th in the league. The Mets pitching staff faces a Arizona offense, that continues to find ways to produce runs even without Marte and Walker in the lineup. The Diamondbacks are averaging 6.4 rpg since the all star break and on the season are averaging and on the season just under 5.5 rpg. 

Considering the pitching matchup and the expected offensive production as compared to my power ranking projections an over wager here is viable investment option. 

The total has gone OVER in 5  of NY Mets's last 6b games when playing Arizona.

 Manaea the Mets starter has been consistent this season and has looked particularly good over the last two months, holding 12 of his 13 opponents to three or less runs. With the Dbacks Marte and Walker on the injured list their offense should start to regress, giving the Mets and edge. Meanwhile, Rodriguez the Dbacks starter is still getting back into shape after an extended lay off due to injury, and has looked better than he should thanks to a recent top tier effort vs a lowly Miami offense. 

The Mets have won each of their last seven games against National League opponents following a road loss.The Diamondbacks have lost seven of their last eight games against the Mets following a win

NY Mets are 21-6  in the last 27 games vs. Arizona Diamondbacks. 

Play on NY Mets 

When looking at todays MLB pitching matchup, alot of the public might expect a pitchers duel. I however am taking a contrarian stance, and projecting a higher scoring game than the pundits might expect based on the following observations and data. 

San Franciscos starter Webb has a career road  4.07 ERA .During his time in the Majors he has always been less cohesive in away tilts than at home. He is backed by a Giants  bullpen that recorded a 4.19 ERA which ranks in 24th in MLB . The Giants pitchers go against the Brewers 8th ranked offense in baseball averaging 4.8 rpg. 

Meanwhile, the Brewers  will send rookie starting pitcher Tobias Myers to the hill to face a  Giants  offense  that is ranked  15th in scoring with 4.3 runs per game and rank 3rd in HRS in baseball on the road. I know Myers has garnered a 2.87 ERA so far this season, but his overall metrics suggest regression at some point. The young pitcher is backed by a bullpen that ranks 13th in MLB since July 1st with an ERA of 3.75. 

The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games on the road.

Five of the Giants’ last six road games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total Nine of the Brewers’ last 11 games as underdogs against NL West opponents have gone OVER the total .

Play over

Braves starting lefty hurler  Fried  (7-7, 3.57 ERA) has not looked good recently and that is evident by having garnered a 6.10 ERA in four August starts. Tbe veteran pitcher has allowed  14 earned runs in his L/ 20.2 innings of sub standard work with the Braves while  losing 6 of his L/7 trips to the hill.  Thats not a good omen for the Braves getting a W here today as they face a  Twins side that is  batting  .264 against southpaws during this campaign which ranks them  3rd in MLB.

 Meanwhile, Bailey Ober  (12-5, 3.54 ERA) the Twins  expected righty starter   has recently garnered a  2.52 ERA in four August starts, allowing just 7 earned runs in  25  quality innings of work with  the young men from Minnesota cashing  5 of his L/6 starts. 

Considering the starting pitching matchup and the Twins success vs LHP  we have an edge with home side. 

Minnesota is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games at home.The Atlanta Braves have only hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 106 games (-28.50 Units / -17% ROI)The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 65 of their last 110 games (+8.00 Units / 5% ROI)

Play on Minnesota to win 

Blue Jays starter  Berrios has recorded a 4.91 ERA and 1.28 WHIP on the road  this season. At home  the right hander  owns a solid   2.81 ERA , which shows an obvious discrepancy.  He has also allowed  a .357 wOBA to opposing batters in away tilts , which is not a good omen against a BoSox side that has recorded a  .335 wOBA against right-handed pitchers for the season ranking them 2nd in the league in this category.

Meanwhile, the The Red Sox own the fifth-worst ERA over the past two weeks in  MLB( 5.53 )with opposing batting orders smashing them for a  .273 BA including 21 HRS.  With Nick Pivetta on the hill things dont look to get much better here. The righty , allowed five runs last time out  and has given up two more more HRS in his L/5 trips to the hill.

Note: Toronto is 28-13 OVER in divisional play this season. The total has gone OVER in 8 of Boston's last 10 games when playing at home against Toronto.

Play on the OVER

Astros starter Blanco owns a   9-6 record on the season along with a   3.14 ERA.  It must be noted however,  that he has recently seen regression on his overall metrics  as  he has allowed 3 or more runs  in three of his last five trips to the hill.

The right-hander lasted just 3 2/3 innings in his last outing a  6-5 loss to the Boston Red Sox. In that game he allowed a  season-high five earned runs , while  walking four batters. 

 Today against a Philadelphia offense that has scored 4 or more runs in 3 straight games this past weekend and averaging 5.53 rpg at home this season, and also averaging .298 team batting average over their L/10 games  Im betting Blanco takes more abuse here  again today.

Meanwhile, Wheeler the Phillies starter ,  has been in top form most of this season , but the Astros bats have been fairly consistent of late, as was  the case this past weekend in a 6-0 win garnering 8 hits  vs the Os and their top pitcher Burnes . The Astros veteran batters can make the best of pitchers look very average . It must also be noted that Wheeler is backed by a bullpen that has garnered  a bloated   5.24 ERA since July 1st ranking a lowly 27th over that period of time. 

The projected starting pitcher for New York is Jose Quintana, who is 6-9 with a 4.57 ERA . Quintana has allowed 7, 4, and 5 earned runs respectively in his last three trips to the hill.Meanwhile, the Padres expected stater  Martin Perez, owns a  3-5 record along  with a 4.67 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. Hes pithed decently of late, but according to my pitcher vas batting order power rankings does. not matchup well here vs the Mets. 

The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego's last 5 games at home.

Seven of the Padres' last eight day games as favorites have gone OVER the total .

Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 34 games at home (+12.90 Units / 35% ROI)

Play over

The Phillies are expected to start Kolby Allard  vs the Royals today in KC today. I dont expect Allard to  go deep today, as he has  gone five innings or less in his 3 appearances this season, He has a stable looking 3.46 ERA on the campaign, but his metrics scream negative regression. The lefty also garnered a bloated 5.75 ERA in his minor league outings this season spanning  21  separate trips to the hill. He is backed by a struggling bullpen that owns a  5.22 ERA  ranking 27th in the league since the start of July. My projections estimate it will be a long day for the Phillies pitching staff vs a Royal offense that averages 5.3 rpg at home this season. Meanwhile,Seth Lugo, goes to the mound for the Royals. He similar to Allard owns a stable  3.02 ERA overall, but continued regression is expected as he has now allowed 6 runs or more in 3 of his L/5 starts overall. I know the Phillies have been inconsistent offensively of late, but there is to much talent in their battling order for things to stay dormant much longer, and Lugo opens up an opportunity for a big time offensive production event as after he leaves the game the Royals bullpen has shown low levels of success this season, recording a 4.31 which ranks 25th in MLB.  With that said, everything points to a runfest today in Kansas City from these two pro baseball combatants the Phillies and the Royals. 

The Kansas City Royals have only hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 28 games (-11.05 Units / -35% ROI)

The total has gone OVER in 8 of Kansas City's last 10 games at home.

Play over

  Tyler Anderson will start for the Angels today.  the lefty owns a  10-11 record on the season along with a  stable 3.40 ERA in 25 starts. Meanwhile,Kevin Gausman is having having a down season  and has recorded a bloated  4.96 xERA  thanks to a strike out conversion rate that is way down compared to past seasons. My pitcher vs batting order power rankings also suggest the Halos matchup well here vs Gausman. 

Yesterday the Angels looked asleep at the wheel offensively vs the Jays scoring just one run on one hit. With bounce back positive offensive regression on board, the visitors look like viable bets . 

Note : Entering this weekends MLB games- Better bullpen teams like the Angels  on a 3 or more game losing run have gone  90-69  on the moneyline in 159 opportunities this season. 

Home teams are 8-21  in the last 29 games between the Los Angeles Angels and Toronto Blue Jays. LA Angels   has won 12 its L/ 17 games when playing on the road against Toronto. 

The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 15 away games (+5.15 Units / 34% ROI)

Play on the Angels to win

Taj Bradley (6-8, 3.55 ERA)  in  his past four starts,  is 0-4 along with a with a blasted  8.10 ERA and is fade material in his current form. Meanwhile, former Cy Young sward winner, Clayton Kershaw (2-2, 2.63 ERA) , is in top form, and in the  2020 World Series, going 2-0 with a 2.31 ERA to move Los Angeles to title .  With the Dodgers offense in top form it will be an easy decison to take the run-line on this mstvhup.  

The Dodgers have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games as home favorites against American League opponents.

Play on the LA Dodgers to win 

The Rangers are going to start Jon Gray today.  This will be  his first start since July 23rd. Gray did make  relief appearance earlier this week , to  prepare for  this start.  Im betting rust will not favor him vs the Guardians today.  His team is just 3-6 in the nine appearances  since mid June . He has recorded a bloated  6.68 ERA  during that substandard span and my pitcher vs batting order power rankings suggest he does matchup well here. If Gray falters which I project he will , he is backed by a struggling bullpen that ranks 26th in MLB  with a 4.37 ERA. Note: Clevelands offense thrives at home averaging 4.9 rpg. Meanwhile, the Rangers rank 21st in the league in offensive production, and will Im betting be less than cohesive vs the Guardians starter Lively and MLB top bullpen  ( 2.68 ERA). After going down to defeat on the  opener of the three-game set on Friday in Cleveland, the Guardians are desperate to get back into the winner column. 

Play on the Guardians to win

Kyle Freeland (3-5, 5.97), who is 0-1 with a 7.43 ERA in his past three outings, goes for the Rockies and according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings does not matchup well here today vs the Yankees. Freeland's only career start against the Yankees was in  2019 in New York, when he was beaten around  for five runs in a 8-2 loss. With the Yankees offense surging behind the bat of Aaron Judge who has six homers in his last seven games while  hitting .459 (17-for-37) with seven homers and 13 RBIs during his season-high 10-game hitting streak Im betting Freeland gets smacked around again. Note: Yankees are also expected to get Jazz Chisholm back from injury today which makes them even more dangerous from a run production perspective. Meanwhile, Yankees expected starting hurler  Carlos Rodon (13-8, 4.34 ERA) is looking decent of late but I remember him imploding back in June and July garnering a  0-5 record along  with a bloated  9.67 ERA in six starts and feel he is do for negative regression. Rodon allowed four runs on seven hits in 3 1/3 innings in a  4-0 loss at Detroit last time out. 

The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 67 games (+18.35 Units / 25% ROI)

The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 25 away games (+5.15 Units / 19% ROI)

Play over