Betting on the NBA can feel overwhelming with its rapid pace and ever-changing lineups.
But you don’t need a supercomputer or complex model to gain an edge.
By focusing on a few smart angle-based strategies, you can start handicapping NBA games like a pro.
In this article, we’ll break down advanced NBA handicapping tips – from interpreting pace and efficiency stats to spotting schedule fatigue and understanding the impact of injuries.
Pace and Efficiency: Reading the Tempo of the Game
Pace is all about how fast teams play.
It’s usually measured by possessions per game – essentially how many times a team gets the ball in a full game.
A fast-paced team will generate more possessions (and hence more scoring opportunities), while a slow-paced team will deliberately milk the clock and limit possessions.
When two teams with up-tempo styles meet, you can expect a higher-scoring, run-and-gun affair.
For example, high-paced teams like the Sacramento Kings (who led the league...
Betting on NBA games can be exciting and rewarding once you understand the basics.
Whether you’re new to sports betting or looking to sharpen your hoops wagering skills, this guide will walk you through the essentials – from point spreads and moneylines to over/unders.
We’ll also dive into some unique NBA factors (like player rest and playoff intensity) that can affect your bets.
Hopefully, this will help you bet on NBA games with confidence.
Let’s jump in!
Understanding NBA Point Spreads
Point spreads are the most popular way to bet on NBA games.
In each matchup, bookmakers set a margin of points that the favored team is expected to win by.
When you bet on the favorite, you “lay” the points – meaning that the team needs to win by more than the spread for your bet to cash.
If you bet on the underdog, you “take” the points – your bet wins if the underdog wins outright or loses by fewer points than the spread.
Essentially, you’re wagering on how many...
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The NBA has been featuring games on Christmas Day pretty much since its start. The teams for these games are not fixed like the NFL on Thanksgiving. Instead, the league chooses some of the best matchups of players and teams to showcase.
But here's the real question. How can we use this information to our advantage when betting these games?
My theory was that NBA games on Christmas Day will go UNDER the total more often than not due to a few simple variables.
NBA Unders on Christmas Day
The Logic
The NBA goes out of its way to feature some of the better teams in the league. For example, the teams that met in the Finals last year almost always meet on Christmas Day.
This means that both teams are going to be motivated to prove themselves. That motivation translates into defensive intensity. More intensity translates into tougher shots for the opposite. That would lead to lower scoring.
A different idea is the complete opposite of our motivation theory....