Min Woo Lee held off Sunday back nine charges from Scottie Scheffler and Gary Woodland to capture his first PGA Tour title with a one shot win at the Texas Children’s Houston Open. San Antonio will be abuzz this weekend with the PGA Tour in town along with the city hosting the Final Four and even the Cleveland Cavalier make an appearance on Friday. The tour remains in the Lone Star State for the Valero Texas Open hosted by the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio, the third longest running event on tour, and while it has always been in the River City area, TPC San Antonio has held the event every year since 2010.
TPC San Antonio is a par 72, 7,438-yard layout that sits 1,100 feet above elevation which reduces some of the distance because of the thinner air. Even though this is one of the longer courses on tour, ranked No. 20 in distance, accuracy is ideally more important and because of the dry firm conditions, there will be plenty of roll with accurate players keeping it in the fairway whereas errant tee shots will gather outside the heavily tree-lined fairways and native areas. It is flat, the rough is short and non-penal and there are only three water hazards across the property yet it is typically ranked in the top ten in difficulty and there is one good reason for that, the good ole’ Texas wind.
Trying to defend his 2024 win is Akshay Bhatia, who picked up his second career PGA Tour win in a playoff over Denny McCarthy. He maintained a six-shot lead with nine holes remaining but McCarthy birdied his final seven holes to force the playoff which Bhatia won on the first hole. The last back-to-back winner was Zach Johnson in 2008-2009 and Bhatia will have a tough time defending against a talented field. Eight players ranked in the OWGR Top 25 are teeing it up and the field is strewn with others looking to win to gain a spot in The Masters next week. Ludvig Aberg (12/1), Tommy Fleetwood (14/1), Corey Conners (18/1), Patrick Cantlay (20/1) and Hideki Matsuyama (20/1) are the chalky favorites this week.
Accuracy off the tee is more important than distance so Stroke Gained: Off-The-Tee is where to look but on a secondary level as straight and long are both obviously beneficial but having one and not the other is not a liability. Hitting greens here is tough and well below the tour average which makes the short game very important, similar to last week at Memorial Park. TPC San Antonio has 64 bunkers so in addition to looking at Strokes Gained: Around-The-Green and Scrambling, we also have to look at Sand Saves Gained. Putting is ranked down this week on the greens that typically run slow, rolling at an average of 11 on the Stimpmeter.
There have been weather issues each of the last three weeks, leading to a Monday playoff at THE PLAYERS Championship, a Thursday/Friday wind wave at the Valspar Championship and heavy rain and storms leading to delays and ball in hand for the first three days in Houston. The biggest threat of rain in the forecast is overnight Friday into Saturday so precipitation looks clean. The wind will be lurking as usual but should not make a big impact with the worst of it coming Saturday night into Sunday morning. Thursday will be relatively calm and after that, gusts will not be constant and top out around 20-23 mph Friday-Sunday so this looks to be the first time in a month we need not be weather concerned.
Top four key categories this week in order:
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Around The Green
Sand Saves Gained
Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee
Each bet is Win/Top Five/Top Ten. The typical recommendation is 50%/25%/25% with odds, payouts and results based on a $1000 unit (easy round number for bookkeeping) on each of the following players. The payouts are listed right below the odds which are all from DraftKings:
Jordan Spieth
Odds: Win 2,000 ~ Top Five 400 ~ Top Ten 210
Payout: Win 10,000.00 ~ Top Five 1,000.00 ~ Top Ten 525.00
Spieth has been inconsistent in most areas but has shown flashes in all SG categories. He has not won since 2022 when he was +0.99 in SG: Total and in six starts this year, he is +0.90 so he is close. In his last start at the Valspar Championship, he finished T28 where his iron game was dialed in as he was +1.96 in SG: Approach and his issue was surprisingly with the driver as he was -0.32 in SG: Off-The-Tee, only the third time in his last 23 starts he has been (-) in that category. He has a T4 and a T9 this year and in both events, his putter was on fire and that will not be needed here as his other strengths can get him over the top.
Daniel Berger
Odds: Win 3,000 ~ Top Five 600 ~ Top Ten 280
Payout: Win 15,000.00 ~ Top Five 1,500.00 ~ Top Ten 700.00
It has been a long, hard comeback for Berger. After missing the latter half of 2022 and all of 2023, most of 2024 was a struggle but he regained his form in the Fall Swing with a T2 and a T7. After missing the cut in two of his first three starts this season, he has five straight top 25s including a T2 at the WM Phoenix Open. He is (+) in all SG categories and he is No. 3 of 12 players in the field that are ranked inside the top 40 in SG: Around-The-Green, Scrambling and Sand Saves Gained so his short game is fine tuned. He is No. 20 in SG: Approach and has moved up to No. 37 in SG: Off-The-Tee while his putting has trended up after almost every event.
Bud Cauley
Odds: Win 4,500 ~ Top Five 850 ~ Top Ten 400
Payout: Win 22,500.00 ~ Top Five 2,125.00 ~ Top Ten 1,000.00
Cauley has not won in a decade but he is now fully healthy after recovering from a car accident that cost him all but one event from 2021-2023. Last year was a struggle obviously and while it has only been six starts this year, his +1.30 SG: Total is the best of his career and he is in great form with a T6 at THE PLAYERS Championship and a T4 at the Valspar Championship. Only seven players in the field are ranked in the top 40 in SG: Approach, SG: Around-The-Green, Fairways Gained and Bogey Avoidance and he is one of them while sitting in the top 10 in SG: Approach. Not to mention, he is No. 37 in SG: Off-The-Tee so his overall game puts him in great position.
Lee Hodges
Odds: Win 6,000 ~ Top Five 1,000 ~ Top Ten 500
Payout: Win 30,000.00 ~ Top Five 2,500.00 ~ Top Ten 1,250.00
Hodges closed last season with a T8, T16 and T5 in three of his last four starts and started this season with a T10 at the Sony open and a T9 at the Farmers but he sustained a rib injury that affected him in his next two starts. He had to take six weeks off but he came back last week to finish T11 in Houston so he has not missed a beat. He was one of the worst putters last year and was (-) in SG: Putting in 11 of his last 12 starts but is (+) in five of six this season which is a bonus to go along with his elite ball striking where he has been (+) in SG: Approach in 11 of his last 12 starts and is No. 9 in the field in that category and has been (+) SG: Off-The-Tee in all six starts.
Alex Smalley
Odds: Win 7,000 ~ Top Five 1,100 ~ Top Ten 500
Payout: Win 35,000.00 ~ Top Five 2,750.00 ~ Top Ten 1,250.00
We ran with Smalley last week and he missed the cut at TPC San Antonio by one shot, his second MC in as many weeks but we are going with him again in a buy low spot as his odds have gone up considerably. This came after four straight T21 or better finishes so we are not jumping off just yet. He was (-) in SG: Approach in those last two events which could not make up for spectacular driving and that has been his go to since last July. Like Berger, his short game is spot on as he is No. 10 of 12 players in the field that are ranked inside the top 40 in SG: Around-The-Green, Scrambling and Sand Saves Gained. He had a MC here last year but was coming off six straight MCs.
Results through Texas Children's Houston Open (9 Tournaments):
Win: -1,500
Top Five: -3,375
Top Ten: -775