ASA MLB Picks Archive

#927/928 ASA PLAY ON Under 7.5 Runs – San Diego Padres vs Cleveland Guardians, Wednesday at 4:10 PM ET - The Padres bullpen has a miniscule 0.38 ERA this season which is tops in the majors.  The Guardians bullpen, though giving up some hits, is also doing a fantastic job as they rank #1 in the AL this season with a 2.08 ERA.  This one sets up well for an under as the starting pitching match-up features two guys who pitched better than their ERA shows in their first starts of this season.  Lively goes for Cleveland here and he allowed only 4 hits in 5 innings in his first start but was hurt by a 2-out 3-run homer in that game.  He did give up some long fly balls but he pitched better overall than the final results reflect.  Last season he had a 3.64 ERA in day games and the year before he had a 3.52 ERA in day games.  The Padres Cease gave up a 2-out 2-run single and a solo homer in his first start.  That ground ball could have been fielded if the 2nd baseman was in a better position and it should have been inning over.  Cease is a great pitcher and had 7 strikeouts in 4 innings in that outing. Opponents hit just .153 against him in day games last season and only .220 against him the year before in afternoon games.  Not including runs in extra innings, the Guardians have averaged scoring only 3 runs per game this season and they might only get 1 or 2 here considering they are facing Cease and a great bullpen. The Padres should also struggle at the plate as Boegaerts is 3 for 6 versus Lively but the rest of the active roster is a combined 1 for 21 against him!  Our computer math model projecting 5 to 6 runs here and even if it gets to 7 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Under in this one. 

#954 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (+125) over Atlanta Braves, Tuesday at 10:10 PM ET - Off last night's 6-1 win, we come right back with the same pick here. The Braves are now 0-5 on the season while the Dodgers are already 6-0 on the season. We again will lay the 1.5 runs on the run line which is available for plus money as of very early Tuesday morning.  Great value here with the Dodgers having scored an average of 5 runs per game (not including the extra innings runs in an 8-5 win) and the Braves averaging only 1.7 runs per game and coming into this one having scored a total of just 1 run in the last 3 games. The Dodgers are the team that is projected to be the most dominant in the majors this season and we look for LA to roll again!  The Dodgers have remained in Southern California all this time since returning from the opening series in Japan that took place over a week and a half ago as they also played some extended spring training games against the Angels before their 3-game sweep of the Tigers here.  They are rolling and it continues!  Atlanta's Sale is a solid veteran pitcher but is unlikely to work deep into this game.  Dustin May is back for the Dodgers and had a solid spring and looks poised to return to top form.  He has held hitters to a .206 batting average in his career.  While LA does not have the big starting pitching edge they had yesterday, their bullpen ERA is 2.37 this season while the Braves pen has a 6.19 ERA.  Couple that with the Dodgers swinging the bats much better than the Braves too so far this season and we have no hesitation in again laying the 1.5 with the run line as we project another blowout here!

#907 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers +130 over New York Yankees, Tuesday at 8:08 PM ET - It is hard to believe the Dodgers had to stave off elimination twice in their NLDS with the Padres and yet now here they are one win away from winning the World Series.  Indeed, since they were down 2-1 to San Diego in that NLDS, LA has rattled off 9 wins in 11 games including winning 4 of 5 on the road!  Not only that, those 4 road wins have come by a combined margin of 30 to 4.  Yes, Los Angeles has been incredible on the road and we expect it to continue here. The Dodgers are going with a bullpen game in this one and the Yankees are expected to start an inconsistent Luis Gil in this one.  He did not look sharp in this post-season and Gil has issues with walks at times and now faces a patient Dodgers lineup.  All the pressure is on the Yankees here and they are squeezing the bats too tight as a result.  They were one pitch away from being shutout in last night's 4-2 loss.  They just can not get the job done at the plate and, with all the pressure on them, we certainly do not see that changing tonight.  That said, considering all of the above, this is solid line value here with the road team. Grab the underdog value with the Dodgers!  Take Los Angeles for the sweep!

#905/906 ASA PLAY ON Under 9 Runs – New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers, Monday at 8:08 PM ET - This total has even moved up to a 9 in some spots as of mid-day Monday and this is an excellent value on the under whether at 8.5 runs or 9 runs.  The Dodgers and Yankees both have the luxury of rested bullpens here after the off day for travel on Sunday.  Buehler had a tough first start in the post-season for LA but he then bounced back strong with a great effort against the Mets and he has some solid post-season experience under his belt.  Buehler has 17 starts in the post-season in his career with a 3.25 ERA and he has held opponents to a .216 batting average against in those 88.2 innings!  Buehler has allowed only 1 earned run on just 5 hits in 13 innings in his 2 career World Series starts and both were in Game 3 match-ups like this one.  The Yankees go with Clarke Schmidt here and he has been respectable so far in the post-season with just 2 earned runs allowed in each outing.  Though he has not worked deep, a solid Yankees bullpen supports him.  In the regular season, Schmidt compiled a 2.85 ERA in 16 starts.  Of course Game 1 of this series was crazy in that it went over the total despite being 2-2 through 9 innings. In fact, there has been a total of only 14 runs (4.7 per game) scored in the Yankees last 3 games - not including runs scored in extra innings.  The Dodgers, not including extra innings runs, have allowed 2 runs or less in 6 of 10 games.  4 of those games were shutout wins.  We feel we are getting nice line value here with this big total when you consider all of the above.  Our computer math model projecting 6 to 7 runs here and even if it gets to 8 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Under in this one.

#967 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers -135 over New York Mets, Friday at 5:08 PM ET - The Dodgers can punch their ticket to the World Series with a win here and we fully expect that. David Peterson is likely to start for the Mets on the mound here and he already struggled in this series and also has not pitched more than 3 innings in over 3 weeks - back in the regular season. The other pitcher for the Mets that is expected to work some bulk innings as well in this one is Kodai Senga. He, like Peterson, also struggled against the Dodgers in that same game earlier in this series.  4 walks and 2 hits and that was in 1.1 innings. In addition to Senga and Peterson struggling, the Mets bullpen has had plenty of issues in this series as well.  With the way the Dodgers are swinging the bats, we just can't see the New York lineup doing enough to stay alive in this series. The Dodgers also have the pitching edge here with Jack Flaherty getting the start plus their bullpen has been the better pen.  Flaherty went 8-3 with a 2.94 ERA on the road this season.  Also, he was fantastic against the Mets in the first game of this series with just 2 hits allowed in 7 scoreless innings while striking out 6! Considering all of the above, excellent line value with the road favorites here. Lay it with the Dodgers!

#962 ASA PLAY ON Cleveland Guardians +100 over New York Yankees, Thursday at 5:08 PM ET - Matthew Boyd has not worked deep but he has pitched well so far in this post-season.  The Guardians southpaw struck out 10 in 6.2 shutout innings in his two appearances versus the Tigers in their ALDS match-up.  Behind him is a strong Cleveland bullpen and we like the value here with a Guardians club in what is essentially a must-win situation in this one at home.  The Yankees are already up 2-0 in this series but are starting Clarke Schmidt here and he has allowed 9 earned runs in 14 innings over his last three starts - 1 post-season and 2 regular season. Also, he did walk 5 in 5 innings in his lone outing at Cleveland this season.  He has now allowed 5 earned runs in 6 innings in his 3 post-season road outings in his career.  The Guardians are a perfect 6-0 L6 times when they are off 2 or more consecutive losses.  Certainly we like that stat here and especially with Cleveland at home for this one  as well. The Yankees have won 4 straight games but have not had a 5-game winning streak since July and, until now, that was the only time they have had a winning streak of more than  3 games since the All-Star break!  Considering all of the above, excellent line value with the hosts here. Take the Guardians!

#953/954 ASA PLAY ON Over 7.5 Runs - Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees, Monday at 7:38 PM ET - The Yankees should pound Alex Cobb here. The Guardians right-hander only lasted 3 innings in his only post-season start and he allowed 2 earned runs in that one.  He missed much of this season with injury and he only made 3 starts in the regular season.  He also struggled badly in the lone road start in the bunch.  Also, in 2021 and 2022 and 2023 Cobb had a much higher ERA on the road than at home all 3 seasons!  The Yankees should get to him right away in this start and he is again unlikely to pitch deep as a result.  The Yankees will indeed need to score well here because all signs point to Carlos Rodon having some struggles in this one against this Cleveland lineup.  The Yankees southpaw struggled in his only post-season outing so far this year and Rodon struggled in his only post-season start a few years ago with the White Sox as well and did not make it out of the 3rd inning.  There is a lot of pressure on him here in the Bronx and the prior ugly post-season experiences do not help matters.  We expect that to get to him and the Guardians should give him plenty of trouble. Cleveland is off B2B wins in which they averaged 6 runs apiece. The Yankees last 3 games stayed under the total but this was on the heels of a stretch in which 8 of last 9 Yankees games dating back to the regular season have totaled 8 or more runs and 7 of those 8 reached a total of 10 or more runs!  We expect a similar result here. Per our computer math, the highest probability in this one is for a range of 9 to 10 runs here.  Over is the call in this one Monday evening.

#919 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Diego Padres +120 over Los Angeles Dodgers, Friday at 8:08 PM ET - Action on pitchers. The Padres are expected to go with Yu Darvish while the Dodgers are expected to go with Yoshinobu Yamamoto. San Diego's Darvish gave up only 1 earned run on 3 hits in 7 innings in his start against them in this series.  He has now given up only 4 earned runs in 22.2 innings his last 4 outings against LA.  Also, that dominant post-season outing against the Dodgers was in Los Angeles.  We expect another gem here while we also certainly feel Yamamoto can not be trusted in this spot.  This is a high-pressure spot and the Dodgers right-hander (in his first season in MLB) does not have the level of MLB experience that Darvish (long-time MLB veteran) has.  Also, Yamamoto allowed 5 earned runs in 3 innings when he faced the Padres in Game 1 of this series.  He also allowed 8 earned runs in 6 innings against them in the regular season.  The Dodgers are favored here because they are at home but San Diego had the best record in MLB after the All-Star break and also is 17-4 the last 21 times they have entered a game off a loss.  Grab the underdog value here with the Padres and look for them to bounce back off the ugly Game 4 loss. Considering all of the above, this is solid underdog line value here with the road team. Take San Diego!

#904 ASA PLAY ON San Diego Padres -150 over Los Angeles Dodgers, Tuesday at 9:08 PM ET - Certainly -150 is not a small price but, based on how we rate this match-up, this price should actually be much higher and that means solid line value with the home side here. The Padres not only have the home field edge, they also gathered a lot of momentum with the upset underdog win at Dodger Stadium on Sunday.  San Diego got a huge blowout road win and now come back home with momentum and confidence clearly on their side.  That confidence factor also extends to this pitching match-up here.  Michael King has plenty of it right now for the Padres while the same can certainly not be said for the Dodgers Walker Buehler.  The LA right-hander went 1-6 with a 5.39 ERA and a .289 BAA this season.  Buehler also struggled in his only start at San Diego this season and did not make it out of the 4th inning in that one.  Overall he struggled on the road this season with an 0-2 record and a 6.53 ERA in his 7 starts away from Dodger Stadium this season.  King, on the other hand, comes into this start in strong current form.  King had a slow start to this season that started in March and carried all the way through April.  However, from May onwards King allowed 2 earned runs or less in 20 of 24 starts.  Amazingly, in those 20 starts he allowed a total of only 20 earned runs.  Yes, an average of only 1 earned run per start.  Also, King in his only home start against the Dodgers this season pitched a 7-inning scoreless gem. Overall, King has not allowed any earned runs in 12 innings spanning his last two starts versus the Dodgers. San Diego has won 46 of last 66 games dating back to just after the All-Star break.  Considering all of the above, this is solid line value here with the home team. Lay it with the Padres!  Take San Diego!

#939/940 ASA PLAY ON Under 6.5 Runs – Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros, Tuesday at 2:32 PM ET - The Astros Framber Valdez squaring off against the Tigers Tarik Skubal sets this one up for a classic pitchers duel.  Valdez is 9-2 with a 2.53 ERA at home this season!  Also, Valdez compiled a 1.65 ERA over the final two months of the regular season and allowed only 33 hits in 60 innings!  As for the Tigers Skubal, he went 18-4 on the season including 8-1 with a 2.37 ERA after the All-Star break!  Also, Skubal went undefeated with a 1.52 ERA in his 4 starts in the month of September.  Both hurlers come into this one in top form and each of them are capable of throwing an absolute gem here.  These two bullpens both rank in the top 4 in the American League this season.  The Tigers hit just .222 their final 6 games of the season.  The Astros, due to scheduling plus one rainout too, have played only 2 games the last 5 days.  This will not help their timing at the plate either and in particular this is true when facing a tough southpaw like Skubal!  This is playoff baseball now and per all of the above this one will, in all likelihood, be a tight low-scoring battle! Our computer math model projecting 4 to 5 runs here and even if it gets to 6 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Under in this one.

#955 ASA PLAY ON New York Mets -115 over Milwaukee Brewers, Friday at 8:10 PM ET - This is a very interesting match-up because these teams could meet right away in the post-season. However, the Mets have not even clinched a wild card spot while the Brewers have already clinched their division.  That said, and now that Milwaukee has clinched and knows they might face the Mets right away in the Wild Card round, you might even see the Brewers holding back in a sense in terms of bullpen usage, etc. As for the Mets, of course they can not hold back at all just yet.  They are still trying to clinch a post-season spot!  So don't be surprised if the Mets are a little more "dialed in" here in comparison with the Brewers.  We also like the starting pitching match-up here in terms of favoring New York.  The Mets are going with Manaea while the Brewers are going with Montas.  Manaea is 6-2 with a 2.77 ERA on the road this season. He also is 6-2 with a 3.09 ERA and holding hitters to a .173 batting average since the All-Star break.  Montas is 1-7 with a 4.97 ERA in home starts this season.  Montas has been better overall since coming to the Brewers from the Reds a few months ago but in his 3 home starts here in Milwaukee in September he has allowed 13 earned runs in 14.2 innings.  The Mets are also expected to get a boost with Francisco Lindor back in the lineup and he is hitting .271 this season with 31 homers and 86 RBI.  Per manager Pat Murphy, the Brewers are taking a "calculated" approach to this series in terms of when guys pitch and how long they pitch and the overall bullpen usage in this series.  Remember they are in the post-season already while the Mets still have work to do and this one sets up for a solid play on the road favorite here! Take the New York Mets!

ASA PLAY ON Under 8.5 in Kansas City Royals at Washington Nationals, Thursday 1:05 ET -The Royals are starting Michael Wacha and the Nationals going with Patrick Corbin here. Note that Corbin has a high ERA on the season but he often struggles badly on the road but has success at home. If you look at his last 3 home starts he has allowed a total of only 2 earned runs on just 9 hits in 18 innings of work! Corbin does it again here at home. Wacha has been strong in 9 of his last 10 starts! In those 9 outings he has allowed a total of only 13 earned runs! The Royals have lost 7 of 9 games and have averaged scoring only 1.9 runs per game during this stretch. The Nationals have lost 8 of 9 games and scored only 1.6 runs per game during this stretch. This is a match-up featuring two starting pitchers likely to produce quality starts and two lineups that are slumping badly. The Nationals have been shutout in 3 straight games in fact! We expect a pitchers duel here and some books are even dropping to an 8 on this total which tells you plenty about this one as well. The expectation is a very low-scoring battle here Thursday in early afternoon action. UNDER is the call in this one

#957/958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 10 Runs - St Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies, Wednesday at 8:40 PM ET - Last night's game just missed going over the total as it landed on 10 runs when the Rockies failed to score in the bottom of the 8th despite a 1st and 3rd no out situation. That game staying under likely is serving to help keep this total lower as, under normal circumstances given this pitching match-up we would have expected even more movement on this total today. It has ticked up a bit but it should have ticked up even more and there is solid value here.  Erick Fedde starts for the Cardinals here and he has struggled in his road starts and now pitches at the toughest ballpark in the league from a pitchers standpoint.  Fedde has struggled in 4 of his 5 road starts since the beginning of August.  In those 4 starts he has allowed 16 earned runs in 21.1 innings!   The Rockies will have Austin Gomber on the mound here and he has allowed 35 hits in 22.2 innings in his 5 home starts since the All-Star break.  This was on the heels of a June in which he went 0-3 with a 9.39 ERA in his 5 starts!  Since then Gomber has been better on the road but not at home as his last 5 home starts clearly show.  Now he faces a Cardinals team that has won 6 of 8 games and scored an average of 5.3 runs per game in those 6 victories.  The Cardinals have scored 6.3 runs per game in their last 4 games against the Rockies.  They have also enjoyed success against a Colorado bullpen that ranks among the worst in the majors for bullpen ERA.  The Cardinals bullpen certainly has been better than the Rockies but, again, pitching at Colorado is a whole different animal.  The St Louis pen hung on yesterday but last season here the Cardinals allowed 6 runs per game and all 3 games in that series at Coors Field totaled more than 10 runs.  The Rockies fell short yesterday but averaged 5.5 runs a game in their last dozen home games prior to that one.  Colorado's slugging percentage at home ranks 5th in the majors this season.  We like this match-up for plenty of runs tonight as favorable weather conditions are expected as well.  With no post-season for either team they are not playing with playoff pressure here and will be relaxed at the plate and we are confident both these pitchers are going to struggle given Fedde's recent road struggles and Gomber's recent home struggles.  Per our computer math, the highest probability in this one is for a range of 12 to 13 runs here.  Over is the call in this one Wednesday evening.

#921/922 ASA PLAY ON Under 7 Runs (+100) – Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET - Low total but this has pitchers' duel written all over it.  Logan Gilbert continues to pile up strikeouts and he also is in top form currently and this has even held true on the road.  In his last two road starts, Gilbert has allowed only 6 hits in 14 innings while striking out 19 batters!  Also, in his only start at Houston this season he allowed just 2 hits in 8 scoreless innings against the Astros!  In looking at the Astros Framber Valdez he has allowed a total of only 2 earned runs in his last 4 starts!  He has allowed 1 earned run or less in 6 of his last 7 outings!  Since the All-Star break he has been incredible with a 6-2 record and a 1.74 ERA and opponents hitting just .153 against him.  Houston is still trying to secure the division and Seattle still has hopes of a Wild Card berth as well.  There is quite a bit of pressure on both clubs in entering this one.  In other words, this will likely play out as a playoff-type game. We expect runs to be at a premium here given the pitching match-up.  Two solid bullpens involved here as well.  Seattle won yesterday's game 6-1 but that one was 1-0 entering the 7th inning.  Seattle ranks 22nd in the majors for batting average on the road.  Houston has struggled with Mariners pitching all season long and has scored an average of only 2.5 runs over the last 10 games between these teams.  We are going with the Under in this one.

#963/964 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8 Runs - Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - Twins are starting Zebby Matthews here and the rookie is struggling to adjust to the MLB level.  Things are not getting any easier either as he certainly has not been trending the right way either.  Matthews has allowed 15 earned runs in only 10.1 innings over his last 3 starts.  The Guardians also have a starting pitcher that has strong odds of struggling this evening as well.  Gavin Williams mixes in a quality start every once in a while but that appears unlikely here as he has struggled badly in his last 2 starts with one knocking him out in the first inning and the next one seeing him struggle to make it through 5 innings.  Overall Williams has struggled in 5 of his last 8 starts with 22 earned runs allowed in 23.1 innings over those 5 starts.  Certainly Cleveland has a strong bullpen and a great closer but their closer Emmanuel Clase would be pitching a 3rd straight day if he is called upon here.  Certainly this is doable for him but yet is not something he has done very often this season.  As for the Twins, their bullpen ERA ranks 22nd in the majors and they may be needed early here the way Matthews is going.  Yesterday's game was a 4-3 Cleveland win but the teams combined for 18 hits.  Also, the Twins won 3 of 5 and scored 6 runs per game in the 5-game stretch before yesterday's loss.  The Guardians have won 6 of 8 games and scored an average of 4.8 runs in the 6 wins.  Cleveland has won 6 of 9 at home and averaged scoring 6 runs per game in the 6 victories.  We get a low total to work with because this ballpark is not known for high-scoring games but because of the pitching match-up and the way both teams have swung the bat a little better of late compared to usual, we feel this is exceptional line value here.  Per our computer math, the highest probability in this one is for a range of 10 to 11 runs here.  Over is the call in this one early Tuesday evening.

#967/968 ASA PLAY ON Over 8.5 Runs - Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET - The Angels are surprisingly showing some life again recently and face another pitcher they should hit here while the Twins really got their sticks going last night. We look for plenty of runs here.  The Angels have gone 6-6 last dozen games and scored 4.4 runs per game during this stretch.  The Twins will build off yesterday's 10-5 win and remember a lot of recent struggles at the plate also came on a recent 7-game road trip preceding this homestand.  Minnesota can turn it around at the plate now that they are here at home for a bit again.  The Twins will take advantage of facing Jack Kochanowicz here.  The right-hander has seen opponents hit .315 against him this season and he does not register many strikeouts!  As for Zebby Matthews, the Twins right-hander has been hit at a .323 average this season and we can see this turning into another high-scoring battle just like yesterday.  Both bullpens are mediocre, not great, and both teams had double digits in hits yesterday and the Angels also had 6 runs on 9 hits in Monday's game.  Over is the call in this one early Wednesday evening.

#951/952 ASA PLAY ON Over 7 Runs - Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants, Thursday at 3:40 PM ET - Diamondbacks games continue to go over the total and we are going to take advantage of a low number here. Don't let the pitching match-up keep you away from this one. Last night Zac Gallen threw 6 innings without allowing a single hit. The final score still ended up being 6-4. The Diamondbacks have been hitting well and the Giants should get to Arizona starter Merrill Kelly here as well. That makes this one a perfect set-up for an over. Kelly has allowed at least 4 earned runs in 3 straight starts plus he has allowed 6 homers in those 3 outings. The Giants 4 runs came late in the game yesterday but they can do damage early today in this one and then also get to that struggling Diamondbacks bullpen as the game goes on. Certainly Blake Snell has been pitching so well for the Giants outside of command issues in a recent start at Seattle. However, the Diamondbacks did get to him for 5 earned runs in 4.2 innings earlier this season and they have been one of hottest hitting teams in the majors in the 2nd half of the season. Their surge continues here and the hot run of overs in Arizona's games continues to surge as well. Over is the call in this one Thursday afternoon.

#951/952 ASA PLAY ON Over 8 Runs - Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - Definitely not a match-up of two powerhouse teams here but this has actually worked in our favor in terms of keeping this total low.  The total has dropped to an 8 in a lot of books as of 11 AM central time and we are happy to get involved with an over here as this match-up involves two starting pitchers likely to struggle.  Patrick Corbin has shown some better results of late but he has enjoyed a home-heavy schedule.  When Corbin comes up with some better starts it tends to be at home.  His road outings, on the other hand, leave a lot to be desired!  Corbin is 1-7 with a 6.52 ERA in his 13 road starts this season.  The Washington left-hander likely to get hit hard at Miami here. The Marlins also have a pitcher going that is likely to get hit hard.  Max Meyer gets the ball for Miami tonight and he went 1-4 with a 7.12 ERA in his 6 starts in August and opponents hit over .300 against him!  The Nationals have not scored well in B2B losses but this followed a 9 game stretch where they went 5-4 and scored 4.4 runs a game and they are facing weaker pitching here.  The Marlins have won 5 of 8 games and scored 5.5 runs per game in this 8-game stretch.  Also, 8 of Miami's last 11 games have totaled at least 9 runs.  Over is the call in this one early Tuesday evening.

#903/904 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs - Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks, Monday at 4:10 PM ET - The Diamondbacks have won 28 of 40 games since the All-Star break.  Arizona has scored an average of 6.9 runs in the last 36 of those games and, as you would expect, have been trending strongly to the over!  The Dodgers had won 10 of 12 games prior to yesterday's 14-3 loss here and they have averaged scoring 6.1 runs in their last 11 games. The Dodgers start Jack Flaherty here and he has mostly good numbers since coming to LA from the Tigers.  We say "mostly" because he just allowed 2 homers for the 3rd time in 4 starts and 3 of those 4 starts were at home! Now he is on the road and, keep in mind, facing the Diamondbacks at Arizona is a tough match-up!  The Dbacks have the #1 batting average at home in the majors this season!   As for the Arizona starter, Eduardo Rodriguez, he has made 4 starts since his return.  One of those was against one of the weakest hitting teams (Miami) in the majors and he allowed only 1 earned run but 6 hits in 5 innings.  In the other 3 starts since he returned he allowed 11 earned runs in 16 innings!  He just allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings versus the Mets and he faces another very tough challenge here.  The Dodgers have the #1 slugging percentage in the NL this season!  Two very solid hitting teams and also the Diamondbacks bullpen ERA ranks 20th in the majors and the runs keep rolling in at Chase Field.  Overall, 25 of the last 34 Arizona games have totaled at least 9 runs and that trend continues here! Also, 15 of the last 18 Diamondbacks home games have totaled at least 9 runs and 13 of those 15 got to 10+ runs!  Over is the call in this one Monday afternoon.

#907/908 ASA PLAY ON Over 8 Runs - New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks, Thursday at 3:40 PM ET - The Diamondbacks have won 27 of 36 games since the All-Star break.  Arizona has scored an average of 6.8 runs in the last 32 of those games and, as you would expect, have been trending strongly to the over!  The Mets had won 8 of 13 games prior to yesterday's 8-5 loss and they have averaged 5 runs during this stretch. The Mets start David Peterson here and the left-hander does have great numbers on the season and in recent outings.  One of the keys however is that he has faced a lot of weaker teams quite often this season including the A's plus the Marlins multiple times and the Nationals 3 times.  Give him some credit for a solid overall season but keep in mind facing the Diamondbacks at Arizona is a tough match-up!  The Dbacks have the #1 batting average at home in the majors this season!   Also, both these bullpens have ERA numbers that rank them only at mid-level in the majors.  As for the Arizona starter, Ryne Nelson is off of B2B quality starts on the road but has a 4.95 ERA in his home starts this season.  Also, the Mets have the #1 slugging percentage in the NL in road games this season!  Two solid hitting teams and both teams with hopes on post-season MLB keep pushing hard in this one and the runs keep coming.  22 of the last 30 Arizona games have totaled at least 9 runs and that trend continues here!  Over is the call in this one Thursday afternoon.

#962 ASA PLAY ON Cleveland Guardians -135 over Kansas City Royals, Wednesday at 1:10 PM ET - Last night the Royals starting pitcher, Lorenzen, got hurt covering 1st base and had to leave the game in the 2nd inning. So Kansas City had to use a lot of bullpen arms yesterday and this followed a double-header Monday which also required a lot of bullpen usage.  Michael Wacha has been solid of late for the Royals but so too has Tanner Bibee of the Guardians.  Also, the Cleveland bullpen is in better shape than the KC pen.  This is a big battle at the top of the AL Central and, with 3 straight wins, Kansas City is now tied for 1st place with the Guardians.  Look for Cleveland to come up big here and avoid the sweep.  The Guardians are a perfect 3-0 the last 3 times they have entered a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games.  This is an early start time in Cleveland and Wacha is 0-4 in his 5 day game starts this season.  Bibee is 4-0 in his 8 day game starts this season.  Bibee has a 2.81 ERA and 1-0 record in his 3 starts versus KC in his young career.  Wacha escaped major damage when he faced Cleveland earlier this season but did allow 7 hits in 5.1 innings.  The Royals bullpen is ranked 24th in the majors with a 4.33 ERA while Cleveland's bullpen is ranked 1st in the majors with a 2.82 ERA.  The KC bullpen, as noted above, has been overworked recently as well.  Look for the Guardians to pull away as this game gets into the latter innings and we look for a solid win for the hosts here.  The home team is the bet in this one.

#929/930 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs - Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Dodgers, Tuesday at 10:10 PM ET - The Orioles Cole Irvin just made his first appearance on the mound in 3 weeks and his first start in nearly 2 months.  It was a shaky outing for him last week and he was unable to make it out of the 5th inning. In his last 7 starts Irvin has allowed 50 hits in 34.1 innings!  He has been very hittable and also has been charged with 16 earned runs in 16.2 innings in his last 4 starts!   Now Irvin has to face the Dodgers and he is on the road for this one.   LA is expected to have Jack Flaherty on the mound in this one.  He is off a solid start versus the Mariners but he gave up 7 earned runs on 13 hits (including 4 homers!) in 10.2 innings spanning his two starts before that one against Seattle.  Flaherty now has to face one of the top hitting teams in the majors.  The Orioles have the #1 slugging percentage in the majors this season!  The Dodgers have the #1 slugging percentage in the NL. The LA bullpen is solid but the Orioles are middle of the pack at best.  Baltimore did not hit well at all in their Sunday night loss and we expect them to bounce back strong here.  This Orioles team has scored 5.3 runs per game on the road this season and have maintained that pace in their 19 road games since the All-Star break as well.  The Dodgers have averaged scoring 5.5 runs per game in their last 18 home games.  We look for these two lineups to be the story in this one as these two teams loaded with potent hitters put on a show here at Dodger Stadium in the opener.  Per our computer math, high probability for a range of 10 to 12 runs here.  Over is the call in this one Tuesday night.

#919/920 ASA PLAY ON Over 9.5 Runs - Arizona Diamondbacks at Boston Red Sox, Friday at 7:10 PM ET - The Diamondbacks have won 23 of 31 games since the All-Star break.  Arizona has scored an average of 6.8 runs in the last 27 of those games and, as you would expect, have been trending strongly to the over!  Boston has won 6 of 10 games and scored an average of 5.5 runs during this 10-game stretch!  The Red Sox are off a 4-1 win but, prior to this, 20 of 29 Boston games reached double digits in runs scored and we expect a back and forth high-scoring affair in this one.  The Red Sox start Brayan Bello.  The right-hander has a 5.28 ERA at home this season with opponents hitting .286 against him there.  Arizona's Ryne Nelson is off of a quality start on the road but this followed allowing 4 earned runs and being hit hard in each of his two road starts prior to that one.  Both bullpens have ERA numbers that rank them in the lower third of the league.  Also, these are 2 of the top 3 teams in the majors for slugging percentage over the last 30 days.  Two hot lineups and both teams with hopes on post-season MLB keep pushing hard in this one and the runs keep coming.  9 of 12 games at Fenway Park since the A/S break totaled at least 10 runs and all signs point to plenty of success for each lineup here as that trend continues!  Over is the call in this one Friday night.

#955/956 ASA PLAY ON Under 7.5 Runs – Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates, Thursday at 6:40 PM ET - This one should be a pitchers duel. When Nick Lodolo faced the Pirates earlier this season it was also a start at Pittsburgh and he was fantastic with just 1 earned run on 4 hits in 7 innings while striking out 8!  Lodolo enters this start off a bad one at home and that is the 2nd bad one he has had at home in recent weeks.  But he continues to dominate on the road where he has given up only 14 earned runs in 37.1 innings for a solid 3.37 ERA in his 7 starts away from home.  This Pirates team has been struggling to score runs in most of their recent games so we expect Lodolo to have another good start against them.  Pittsburgh is on a 3-13 run and averaged only 1.8 runs scored in their last 8 losses during this bad stretch.  The Reds lineup has been performing better than the Pirates of late yet they have averaged only 3.2 runs scored in the last 5 road games prior to wrapping up the series in Toronto with a huge win.  Now they face a very tough match-up with Paul Skenes on the mound.  He bounced back at home after a tougher outing in LA versus the Dodgers and he has given up only 10 earned runs in his last 6 home starts.  Runs likely tough to come by in this one as Skenes and Lodolo should both work deep as well and we like the recent history of these pitchers versus these lineups. Our computer math model is projecting high probability for a range of only 4 to 6 runs here and even if it gets to 7 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Under in this one.

#922 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (+100) over Chicago White Sox, Wednesday at 3:45 PM ET - This game is being priced with too much emphasis on the starting pitching match-up and, even then, there is a flawed perception here!  When one first looks at this match-up they see Garrett Crochet with a 3.61 ERA this season and a 3.28 ERA in his career.  One also sees Logan Webb with similar numbers as he has a 3.17 ERA this season and a 3.36 ERA in his career!  Before we even get into the vast difference between the recent trending of the White Sox and Giants, there is also a big difference in trending between these pitchers and it is not what one would expect given those numbers for Crochet.  The White Sox southpaw is dealing with a major stretch of struggles with only his last start, though short, an exception! Crochet has not lasted more than 4 innings in any of his last 7 starts and has averaged 3.1 innings per start!  Behind him is a very bad White Sox bullpen and also Crochet is off a scoreless 4-inning start but this followed him having given up 13 earned runs in 13.1 innings in his 4 outings since the All Star break!  As for Webb, he is in phenomenal current form as he has allowed only 2 earned runs in 29.1 innings over his last 4 starts.  Also, on the season he is 7-3 with a 2.26 ERA in his home starts!  Opponents are hitting only .223 against him in San Francisco.  Now, about those team trends, the Giants have won 11 of 16 home games and are still very much alive in the Wild Card race.  The White Sox, on other hand, are going down this season as one of the worst teams in all-time MLB history.  They head into this one with just 3 wins in 35 games and also are 12-53 on the road this season.  San Francisco wins this season have featured 72% of them coming by a margin of at least 2 runs.  Chicago's losses have seen 72 of 97 come by a multi-run margin.  Strong odds on yet another blowout loss for the White Sox here. Lay the run line in this one!

#916 ASA PLAY ON San Diego Padres -155 over Minnesota Twins, Monday at 9:40 PM ET - The Padres are off a loss and have not lost B2B games since mid-July. They were on a 20-4 run before yesterday's loss and are a perfect 5-0 the last 5 times they have entered a game off a loss.  With San Diego one of the hottest teams in the league since the All-Star break and coming off a loss and with Michael King on the mound, they should prove well worth the money line price in this one. King has been fantastic ever since his slow early season start. From May onward King has an 8-3 record with a 2.54 ERA.  The Twins are starting Zebby Matthews here and he has made only one MLB start.  He moved up the minors fast and pitched quite well until he hit AAA ball where he went 1-2 with a 5.68 ERA and got hit at an over .300 batting  average in his 4 starts.  That said, we are not going to put too much weight into his one MLB start which, by the way, was at home.  Matthews is a rookie making his first ever MLB road start.  While both teams were on the road yesterday, certainly it is the Padres that are happier to be here today in comparison with the Twins.  San Diego is happy to be back home while Minnesota is coming off that tough loss at Texas where they blew a 4-0 lead and eventually lost 6-5 in extra innings.  Now the Twins had to fly even further away from Minnesota and have this 3-game set in California before finally heading back home.  Minnesota is a solid team but is just 29-37 in games against teams with a winning record and they are on the road here and the Padres have the pitching edge.  The home team is the bet in this one.

#929 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Braves -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Los Angeles Angels, Saturday at 9:38 PM ET - The Braves expected to start Chris Sale in this one and the Angels are likely trotting out Griffin Canning to the mound for this one.  Sale is 13-3 with a 2.61 ERA this season.  Canning is 4-10 with a 5.11 ERA on the year.  Sale is off an outing in which he threw 7 scoreless innings on the road and he has now allowed a total of only 13 earned runs in his last 10 road starts!  Canning has allowed 4 earned runs or more in 7 of his last 11 starts.  In addition to the starting pitching edge here for Atlanta, the Braves are seeking to bounce back from a 3-2 loss yesterday here in Anaheim.  The Braves are now off B2B road losses but this followed wins in 8 of 11 away from home.  Atlanta has not lost more than 2 straight road games since two months ago - all the way back in the middle of June!  The Braves had scored 6.3 runs per game in their 8-3 run on the road prior to these B2B losses.  We look for them to bounce back strong here against Canning and the hosts will not be able to keep up.  This is an Angels team that has averaged only 2.9 runs scored per game in their last 7 games.  Los Angeles is on a 5-9 run in home games and has scored only 2.4 runs per game in their last 9 games played here in Anaheim.  The Angels bullpen ERA ranks in the bottom half of the majors while the Braves bullpen ERA is among the top 3 teams in the majors!  The Braves are 22-13 in interleague action this season and 51 of their 64 wins on the season have come by 2 or more runs.  Lay the run line in this one!

#966 ASA PLAY ON Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (+105) over Chicago White Sox, Friday at 8:10 PM ET - This game is being priced with too much emphasis on the starting pitching match-up and, even then, there is a flawed perception here!  When one first looks at this match-up they see Garrett Crochet with a 3.65 ERA this season and a 3.30 ERA in his career.  One also sees Spencer Arrighetti, a rookie, with a 5.14 ERA this season!  Before we even get into the vast difference between the recent trending of the White Sox and Astros, there is also a big difference in trending between these pitchers and it is not what one would expect given those numbers.  Arrighetti has been pitching like a phenom of late while Crochet is dealing with a major stretch of struggles!  The Astros Arrighetti has been charged with only 11 earned runs on just 20 hits in his last 5 starts and these have covered 31 innings on the mound!  Also, Arrighetti has struck out 33 in 19 innings over his last 3 starts!  Crochet has not lasted more than 4 innings in any of his last 6 starts and has averaged 3 innings per start!  Behind him is a very bad White Sox bullpen and also Crochet has given up 13 earned runs in 13.1 innings in his 4 outings since the All Star break!  About these teams, the Astros have won 8 straight games and have soared to 1st place in the NL West.  The White Sox, on other hand, are going down this season as one of the worst teams in all-time MLB history.  They head into this one with just 2 wins in 28 games and also are 11-49 on the road this season.  The Astros wins this season have featured 80% of them coming by a margin of at least 2 runs.  Chicago's losses have seen 68 of 93 come by a multi-run margin.  Strong odds on yet another blowout loss for the White Sox in this one.  Lay the run line in this one!

#969 ASA PLAY ON Houston Astros -115 over Tampa Bay Rays, Wednesday at 6:50 PM ET - Houston has won 7 straight games and the Rays have already dropped the first two games of this series following the tight win over Baltimore Sunday.  Before that win Sunday Tampa Bay had lost 6 of 9 games and they had scored an average of only 3 runs per game in their 10 games since the end of July.  Now 12 games into August they are still averaging only 2.75 runs scored per game in these dozen games.  TB is going to struggle against Ronel Blanco here in this one.  Blanco is 5-2 with a 2.98 ERA in his road starts this season.  Also, overall on the year, opponents are hitting a paltry .183 against the offerings of Blanco.  The right-hander certainly gives the Astros the edge on the mound over the Rays and Zack Littell.  The Tampa Bay right-hander has gone 5-8 this season and opponents are hitting .287 against him on the year.  He just got hit hard again for the 3rd time in 6 starts.  These two teams just met recently in Houston and Littell and Blanco squared off in that series and TB prevailed.  Blanco had 7 strikeouts compared to just 3 for Littell and it was a bit of a tough luck loss for Blanco and Houston.  We expect this to be payback for that one as the Astros are heating up once again.  Houston has won 7 straight games and 8 of last 9 road games.  In those 9 games away from home, the Astros have scored an average of 6 runs per game.  The road team is the bet in this one.

#967/968 ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs - Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET - These teams played a double-header yesterday and that puts some extra stress on bullpens.  This is particularly true in this case because in the first game yesterday neither starter was able to make it out of the 5th inning.  Also, the Guardians have been losing but their games continue to see plenty of runs.  In fact, Cleveland is 2-7 in August and 7 of the 9 games have totaled at least 9 runs!  The Guardians enter this game losers in 7 straight games and Gavin Williams is unlikely to turn that around.  Williams is off a tough start and if you look at 3 of his last 4 starts he has given up 12 earned runs in 14 innings spanning 3 of the 4 starts.  The Twins, unlike the Guardians, have won 7 of 9 games.  Minnesota has scored an average of 6 runs per game in this 9-game stretch!  13 of their 19 games since the All-Star break have reached at least 9 runs.  Also, Simeon Woods Richardson is expected to get the start here and he has struggled some in his last two starts and that includes the most recent one even though it was against the White Sox!  Woods Richardson has allowed 9 earned runs in 7.1 innings over his last two starts!  We like the value here given all of the above as well as the high-scoring trending of Guardians games and Twins games plus the metrics based on this expected pitching match-up.  Over is the call in this one Saturday evening.

#952 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Braves -140 over Milwaukee Brewers, Thursday at 12:20 PM ET - The Braves have a significant situational pitching edge here with Charlie Morton over Frankie Montas in this one.  Before we get into that, yes the Braves have lost 4 straight games but this followed wins in 6 of 7. The Brewers entered this series having lost 4 of 5 and 6 of 9.  Montas allowed only 3 earned runs in his debut with Milwaukee last week but he only went 5 innings in that start and allowed 9 hits in the shaky outing.  Overall he has struggled of late as Montas compiled a 7.71 ERA in the month of July for the Reds.  Making this spot even tougher for him is his final start of July was here in Atlanta and he gave up 10 hits in 4.1 innings!  The Braves Morton has a 3.00 ERA in his 11 home starts this season.  He has been particularly strong in recent months in his home starts as he has allowed only 4 earned runs in his last 6 home starts!  Morton has given up only 23 hits and 4 earned runs in 35.2 innings!  Yes he has a 1.01 ERA in his last 6 home starts.  We like the value of the home team here off of 4 straight losses and with the starting pitching edge.  It is strengthened by the fact that Atlanta had been the hotter team than the Brewers over the past week or so prior to this series.  We do not see them getting swept here at home.  The host is the bet in this one.

#972 ASA PLAY ON Seattle Mariners -1.5 on the Run Line (+105) over Detroit Tigers, Tuesday at 9:40 PM ET - The Mariners Luis Castillo has a 2.82 ERA at home this season. He is off a fantastic July in which he went 3-1 with a 1.99 ERA. Seattle was off yesterday after a 6-0 shutout loss to the Phillies Sunday. The Mariners will be ready to bounce back off that loss here and had won 6 of 8 games before that loss. The Tigers have lost 9 of 12 games and scored only 2.8 runs a game in these dozen games. Detroit starter Keider Montero has allowed 19 earned runs in his last 4 starts and had allowed 5 earned runs in 3 straight outings before being charged with 4 earned runs in his most recent one. The rookie is 1-5 this season and opponents have hit .298 against him on the road this season. This one is set up well for the Mariners to roll big at home. The Tigers are off a 1-run loss but this followed a stretch where each of their 6 losses came by a minimum margin of 4 runs! We will lay the 1.5 runs here with confidence. The Mariners most recent win was by 1 run but this followed a stretch where each of their 9 victories prior to that one were by 2 or more runs. Lay the run line in this one!

#970 ASA PLAY ON Kansas City Royals -125 over Boston Red Sox, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET - The Royals have a significant pitching edge here with Seth Lugo over Brayan Bello in this one.  Lugo is 13-5 this season with opponents hitting only .217 against him. Lugo has given up 2 earned runs or less in 7 of last 9 starts and allowed a total of only 8 earned runs in those 7 strong starts!  Bello had an 8.25 ERA in June and had a 4.97 ERA over his last 5 starts in July.  Boston is off B2B wins but has not won more than 2 in a row since early July.  Prior to these back to back wins, the Red Sox had lost 9 of 14 games. Kansas City had won 15 of 22 games prior to yesterday's 9-5 loss to the Red Sox.  Kansas City is 36-23 this season in home games.  We like the value of the home team here off a loss and with the starting pitching edge.  It is strengthened by the fact that KC had been the hotter team than the Red Sox in recent weeks entering this series.  The home team is the bet in this one.

#974 ASA PLAY ON Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Wednesday at 8:10 PM ET - This is a great spot with a huge pitching edge. The Astros have lost 3 straight games but are a perfect 3-0 since mid-May when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3+ games.  Houston was on a 43-25 run prior to this 3-game losing streak and we look for them to bounce right back here.  The Astros are starting Framber Valdez here and he is 5-2 at home this season.  He had a tough May but since then has given up 2 earned runs or less in 7 of his last 10 starts.  The Pirates are starting Jake Woodford here.  He performed well on a minor-league contract after previously pitching with the White Sox earlier this season.  The trouble is, just like his starts earlier this season with the White Sox, Woodford has not performed well at the MLB level.  Woodford had a 10.80 ERA earlier this season for Chicago.  Also, last season for St Louis, Woodford had a 6.23 ERA in 15 games (8 starts).  Opponents hit .314 against him last season with the Cardinals and he got hit hard with the White Sox earlier this season too.  Now his debut with the Pirates and we expect his struggles to resume at the MLB level.  47 of 55 Houston wins have been by a margin of 2 or more runs.  18 of 26 Pittsburgh road losses by a margin of 2 or more runs this season.  Big edges all around for the home team here.  There is a reason Houston is so heavily favored on the money line here and it has led to particularly solid value on the run line in this one.  Great spot to grab the solid value with the home team in a great spot and available at very small juice by laying the -1.5 runs!  We will take it!  Lay it!

#921/922 ASA PLAY ON Over 8.5 Runs - Minnesota Twins at New York Mets, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET - The Twins look to respond off yesterday's 15-2 loss.  While we are forecasting a much better night of hitting for Minnesota in this one, we also expect the Mets to pound the ball yet again.  The Twins had won 4 of 6 before that loss yesterday and they had scored an average of 5 runs per game in their first 8 games after the All-Star break.  Minnesota did have 9 hits last night but scored only 2 runs as they left 9 men on base in the game.  The Twins are facing lefty Sean Manaea here.  The Mets southpaw has been solid this season but he has allowed 18 baserunners (including 2 hit batters) in 9.2 innings spanning his two starts since the All-Star break.  Minnesota is hitting .276 against left-handed pitching this season and that is #1 in the majors!  As for Twins starter David Festa, he is off of a solid performance versus the Phillies but he did give up quite a few hard hit balls in that one.  He was solid from a strikeout standpoint but, considering the hard contact, he was fortunate more damage was not done.  Festa is a rookie and he has allowed 12 earned runs in 10 innings in his first two MLB starts.  His 3rd outing was a long relief effort against the Phillies.  We look for another tougher start (just like the first two) for Festa here on the road and all signs point to plenty of success for each lineup here!  Over is the call in this one early Tuesday evening.

#955/956 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 Runs - Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks, Monday at 9:40 PM ET - Though yesterday's game was admittedly an extremely fortunate win for those (including us) holding over tickets in Arizona (was 2-1 in top of 9th!) the fact is the Diamondbacks entered that contest continuing to trend toward high-scoring games here in July and we will take advantage of the rather low total of 9 posted on Monday's game.  Now it is the Nationals that Arizona is hosting rather than the Pirates and Washington, like the Diamondbacks, enter this game off a tough, tight loss as they gave up the deciding run in the bottom of the 9th of a 4-3 final.  Overall, Washington was on a 7-4 run before yesterday's loss and the Nationals averaged scoring 5.5 runs during that 11-game stretch.  We are confident the Nationals will resume their hot hitting here after a couple of huge games at the plate in St Louis before yesterday's loss. We also like how potent this Arizona lineup has been. The Diamondbacks have won 16 of 24 games and some big hitting games have certainly helped lead the way.  The Diamondbacks have scored 6 runs per game on average during this 24-game stretch.  The Nationals bullpen ERA ranks 17th and Arizona's ranks 22nd so look for runs throughout this game as these starting pitchers are also likely to struggle!  Mitchell Parker gets the call for Washington and he is winless with a 9.18 ERA in his 4 starts this month.  He has a 4.91 ERA on the road this season.  Jordan Montgomery expected to take the mound for the Diamondbacks in this one.  Montgomery has been getting hit hard at home all season long.  We are not exaggerating as he had one good start at home versus the major league worst White Sox this season but has been hit quite hard in every other home start this season.  He has a 7.82 ERA at home this season and opponents are hitting .355 against him in those starts. All signs point to plenty of success for each lineup here!  Over is the call in this one Monday night.

#960 ASA PLAY ON Texas Rangers -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Chicago White Sox, Thursday at 2:35 PM ET - We have stayed away from this series after we got burned with a 1-run win in the first game of the series and we had the run line.  Laying the -1.5 runs on the run line to avoid laying big prices always carries with it the risk of getting burned by a 1-run win but we like our chances for a home blowout in the series finale here.  Texas is going for the sweep and Chicago has now lost 10 straight games!  Note that the White Sox have scored only 2 runs per game last 11 games and the last 10 games in this low-scoring stretch have all been losses.  56 of 77 Chicago losses this season have come by a multi-run margin.  Texas has scored 5 runs per game last 20 games and has won 11 of 15 games.  Rangers build off the momentum of 3 straight wins in this series punctuated by the huge 10-2 win yesterday.  We look for the Rangers to pull away as this game gets into the middle and later innings.  The starting pitching match-up is expected to be Max Scherzer versus Jonathan Cannon.  Scherzer is off a tougher start but it came against the league-best hitting Orioles.  Now he faces the league-worst hitting White Sox!  He takes advantage and dominates.  Scherzer is still getting back to full strength after missing time with injury but this is a guy who has dominated for many years and facing light-hitting Chicago will help him round back into top form!  As for Cannon, he is a rookie and is 0-3 with a 6.46 ERA in his road starts and opponents hitting .313 against him away from home.  He catches the Rangers lineup confident off the 10-run outburst yesterday.  The surge continues here in a home blowout.  Lay it!

#925 ASA PLAY ON Baltimore Orioles -130 over Miami Marlins, Wednesday at 6:40 PM ET - The Orioles lost yesterday here at Miami and it was unusual in that they failed to do damage against an opponents bullpen.  We doubt that will be repeated here.  Miami is 21-33 at home this season which is one of the worst home records in the league!  The Orioles are 30-18 on the road this season and also the Marlins are 23-43 against teams that have a record above .500 on the season.  Baltimore is one of the strongest teams in the majors and should bounce back here.  We have no hesitation in fading the Marlins off a win.  Since a 3-game winning streak back in mid-June, the Marlins have won B2B games only twice (including first game before A/S break and first game after A/S break).  In fact, the Marlins have gone 2-8 the last 10 times they have entered a game off a win!  We get line value here because the Orioles have a rookie hurler going in this one.  Chayce McDermott has a 3.96 ERA at the AAA level this season and he is facing a Marlins team that has a .357 slugging percentage which is dead last in the National League.  By the way, the Orioles slugging percentage is .452 which is the #1 out of all 30 MLB teams!  The Orioles should get to Edward Cabrera here.  He is 1-3 with a 7.36 ERA this season.  He has a WHIP of 1.80 since he returned from injury this month and he continues to struggle here against a tough Orioles lineup.  The road team is the bet in this one.  Lay it!

#911/912 ASA PLAY ON Over 8 Runs - Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics, Wednesday at 3:37 PM ET - The Astros Hunter Brown has a 4.99 ERA in road games and a 1-4 record with a 7.09 ERA in day games. As strong as he has been at home and in night games this season, you can see why this could be a tricky matchup for him this afternoon in Oakland.  The Athletics have been better with wins in 11 of 17 games and Oakland has scored an average of 7 runs during this stretch.  So, Oakland has been trending much better of late compared to their full season numbers.  Houston has suddenly cooled off but they had been hot too and they will get to the A's starter here.  JP Sears gets the start and he is off a start where he only allowed 2 earned runs but on 9 hits in an outing that he was unable to complete 6 innings.  He has now given up 45 hits in 33 innings spanning his last 7 starts.  The Astros get it rolling at the plate this afternoon and the A's stay hot.  Over is the call in this one Wednesday afternoon. 

#977/978 ASA PLAY ON Over 9.5 Runs - Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royals, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET - Yesterday's game was a 10-4 Royals win and we look for another high-scoring game here. Kansas City is running hot after the All-Star break with 4 straight wins and they've scored 6.8 runs per victory in this stretch!  Going further back, KC has won 8 of 10 games and scored 6.1 runs a game during this hot stretch.  The Diamondbacks are off B2B losses but this followed a 12-5 stretch in which Arizona scored 6.5 runs per game during the last 14 games of that.  Their bats should resume the hot-hitting ways here as they face Alec Marsch of the Royals.  The Kansas City right-hander had a 5.68 ERA in 6 starts last month.  Now this month he has a 7.20 ERA in 3 appearances (2 starts).  Marsh's struggles continue here but he should get plenty of run support as well.  Not only are the Royals bats hot, they can take advantage of a struggling Jordan Montgomery who is also coming off the 15-day DL after dealing with a knee injury.  The Dbacks southpaw has allowed 26 earned runs in his last 25.1 innings dating back to late May.  In terms of bullpen ERA, the Diamondbacks are ranked 21st and the Royals are ranked 20th.  We like all the key elements to this one and our computer math model shows the highest probability of 11 to 12 runs.  Over is the call in this one Tuesday evening.

#965/966 ASA PLAY ON Over 8 Runs - Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays, Sunday at 1:37 PM ET - Toronto's Kevin Gausman is 1-5 at Rogers Centre this season with a 7.19 ERA and opponents hitting .318 against him.  Home has not been good to Gausman this season to say the least.  We also look for Detroit's Keider Montero to struggle in this one.  Montero is off a start in which he allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings.  He has only pitched in 5 games this season but has now allowed at least 4 earned runs in 3 of the 5 outings.  Montero has appeared in 3 day games this season and has a 9.22 ERA under the sun.  The Tigers have won 12 of 16 games and scored 5.7 runs per game during this solid 3-week stretch of action.  The Blue Jays are looking to avoid the sweep here but one thing has remained a constant for the Blue Jays of late and that is high-scoring games.  24 of 29 games for Toronto over the past 5 weeks have totaled at least 8 runs.  Most of those games totaled at least 9 runs and this total is set too low.   Per our computer math model, the most probable outcome for total runs scored in this one is in a range of 10 to 11 runs.  The Jays have had 7 straight games total at least 8 runs and those 7 games averaged 11.4 runs per game. We make the most of this low total.  Over is the call in this one early Sunday afternoon. 

#953 ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Phillies -130 over Pittsburgh Pirates, Sunday at 1:35 PM ET - The Pirates have taken the first two games of this series and, because the Phillies also lost their final game before the All-Star break, it means they have now lost 3 straight games. This matches their longest losing streak of this season and, dating back to July of 2023, the Phillies are a perfect 4-0 when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games.  We also like the pitching match-up here.  The Phillies already faced Marco Gonzales earlier this season. That was back in April and now Gonzales is back from injury.  Though he allowed only 1 earned run in 5 innings in his first start back, he did give up 7 hits in those 5 innings and this was against the lowly White Sox.  He faces a much tougher challenge here.  In that start against Chicago, Gonzales got a couple of double plays to help him along and he gave up some hard contact and line drives so there was more to his outing than what you see in the boxscore. The Phillies are going with Tyler Phillips here and he had a solid first start at home in Philadelphia - he is from south Jersey so it was special for him - and he looked sharp and has added confidence now that he has that first MLB start under his belt. The Pirates are one of the weakest hitting teams in the league and the Phillies are one of the best.  Philadelphia avoids the sweep here!  The road team is the bet in this one.  Lay it!

#919 ASA PLAY ON Texas Rangers -125 over Los Angeles Angels, Wednesday at 9:38 PM ET - The Rangers have now won 5 straight games by a combined score of 34 to 13!  Unfortunately they let us down with our big run line play yesterday as Texas won the game by just one run but they are very reasonably priced on the money line tonight.  That said, we love the small price on Texas to extend their win streak to 6 straight games.  They entered this series with B2B high-scoring wins under their belt and as they have now won 5 straight games, Texas is quickly building up confidence at the plate.  For the downtrodden Angels, the opposite is true!  Los Angeles has lost 8 of 9 games!  Also, in the 6 most recent losses in this stretch, LA has been outscored by a combined score of 34 to 9!  You can definitely see these two teams have been going in opposite directions over the past week.  Though the bullpen is not a strength for either team this season, the Angels bullpen ERA is the second highest in the AL with only the White Sox worse off.  Also, with Griffin Canning on the mound in this one, that struggling bullpen is likely to be called upon early in this one!  Canning had a great start versus a bad A's team recently but has allowed 19 earned runs in his other 5 starts since early June.  He averaged about 5.1 innings in those 5 starts so we look for the Angels bullpen to again play a role in another loss for LA tonight. As for the expected Rangers starter here, Michael Lorenzen has had one tough recent start but it was at Baltimore against a great Orioles team.  The Angels are certainly not the top hitting team in the league like the Orioles and other than his start versus Balimore, Lorenzen's other 4 starts since mid-June have been strong.  He has allowed only 6 earned runs in 23 innings in those 4 starts.  In fact, Lorenzen has given up 2 earned runs or less in 8 of 10 starts since mid-May!  We look for another solid outing from him here as the Angels struggles at the plate continue.  The Angels have scored a total of only 9 runs in their last 6 losses!  As Texas surges, the Angels continue to falter as this team is just nowhere near the lineup it once was without Ohtani (now with Dodgers) and Trout (still injured) and their pitching has also been a big concern all season long.  Look for the Rangers to stay red hot here and make it 6 straight wins!  A very fair price here on Texas because they are on the road. We'll take it as the Angels have one of the worst home records in the majors this season.  The road team is the bet here.  Lay it!

#969 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Rangers -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Los Angeles Angels, Tuesday at 9:38 PM ET - The Rangers have won 4 straight games by a combined score of 29 to 9! With B2B high-scoring wins under their belt in this 4-game winning streak, Texas is quickly building up confidence at the plate. For the downtrodden Angels, the opposite is true! Los Angeles has lost 7 of 8 games! Also, in the 5 most recent losses in this stretch, LA has been outscored by a combined score of 29 to 5! You can definitely see these two teams are going in opposite directions right now. Though the bullpen is not a strength for either team this season, the Angels bullpen ERA is the highest in the AL. Also, with Roansy Contreras on the mound in this one, that struggling bullpen is likely to be called upon early in this one! Contreras hasn't gone beyond the 3rd inning in either of his last two starts and has been hit hard plus has more walks than strikeouts in these two outings. Contreras is only expected to get another start here because the Angels are currently so short on starting pitching. This will again cause the Angels bullpen to continue to be over-used. As for the expected Rangers starter here, Max Scherzer has been building up strength and pitch count since he resumed and he could even go 7 innings in this one! Scherzer has been handcuffing hitters and, though his strikeout numbers are lower than usual he is inducing plenty of weak contact. Pop ups, foul outs, ground outs ... those types of outs have been on display as Scherzer gears up. We look for another solid outing from him here as the Angels struggles at the plate continue. Again, a TOTAL of only 5 runs scored for the Angels in their last 5 losses! The Rangers continue to work their way back up the AL West standings as the Mariners and Astros are each off B2B losses. It is a long season and Texas is starting to believe again as they are not yet out of the hunt for another strong finish to the season and then of course there is always then hope of another post-season run like last season's World Champion team. As Texas surges, the Angels continue to falter as this team is just nowhere near the lineup it once was without Ohtani (now with Dodgers) and Trout (still injured) and their pitching has also been a big concern all season long. Look for the Rangers to stay red hot here and win this by a margin. About that margin, 16 of the Angels last 17 losses have been by 2 or more runs. 17 of the last 19 Texas wins have been by 2+ runs! Look for Texas to pull away as this game gets into the middle and later innings. Lay it!

#907 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Braves -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Arizona Diamondbacks, Monday at 9:40 PM ET - The Braves Chris Sale is having a fantastic season.  The Diamondbacks Yilber Diaz comes in with high expectations based on his minor league success but, of course, pitching at the MLB level is entirely different.  This is his MLB debut and he is facing a very tough assignment having to face the Braves.  As for Sale, he had one unreal ugly start versus Oakland in his last 11 starts.  In the other 10 starts he allowed a total of only 9 earned runs!  Not only that, Sale has allowed - other than that start against the A's - just 22 earned runs in 95.2 innings this season.  He is 8-1 with a 1.53 ERA in night games this season and has held opponents to a .163 batting average in those 9 starts.  We have fantastic line value here with the Braves available at -115 by laying the 1.5 runs on the run line in this spot.  Also, in terms of bullpens here, the Braves are #1 in the NL with a 2.97 ERA.  The Diamondbacks are #25 out 30 MLB teams with a 4.44 ERA.  Arizona is 20-27 against teams with a winning record on the season.  The Diamondbacks are also 6-10 against NL East teams this season and 13-17 against left-handed starters.  Sale is a tough one so this is a really tough spot for Arizona as Diaz is likely to hit some stumbles in his first ever MLB appearance.  Atlanta off B2B wins over a strong Phillies team and the Braves have now won 14 of 23 games.  The Dbacks off B2B wins at San Diego but this followed losses in 7 of 12 games and Arizona has lost all 3 games with Atlanta this season plus 6 of last 8 dating back to last season!  Look for Atlanta to pull away as this game gets into the middle and later innings.  Lay it!

#959/960 ASA PLAY ON Over 9.5 Runs – Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET - The Dodgers are starting unproven Justin Wrobleski who is making his MLB debut.  He is practically jumping directly from AA ball to the majors as he made only two AAA starts before getting called up.  Prior to this season he had never pitched higher than single A ball.  He will be facing a Brewers team that is 5th in the majors for slugging percentage in day games and averaging 4.8 runs scored per game in day games.  Milwaukee sends Dallas Keuchel to the mound for this one.  His recent seasons have only featured minimal MLB appearances and the results have been ugly.  This season, with Milwaukee, Keuchel has only pitched in two games and has a 6.75 ERA and opponents are hitting .316 against him.  His strikeout numbers were way down in the minors this season too.  Now he has to deal with a tough LA lineup and on the road at Dodger Stadium.  Los Angeles has a .441 slugging percentage which is tops in the NL and also they are known for hitting well at home and in day games too.  The Dodgers won yesterday's game 5 to 3 but we expect more scoring in this one.  Prior to that 5-3 win, LA had been involved in 6 straight games that all totaled at least 11 runs!  Our computer math model is projecting 11 to 12 runs here!  We are going with the Over in this one Sunday.