Big Al McMordie CFL Top Picks Archive

At 3 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Toronto Argonauts + the points over the Montreal Alouettes.  The Argos come into this CFL semi-final match-up playing their best football of the season.  They walloped Ottawa in the opening round of the playoffs, 58-38, as a 6-point home favorite.  And that was Toronto's 5th straight point spread cover.  And one of those ATS wins was an upset win against these Alouettes, back on September 28, when Toronto won 38-31, as a 1.5-point road dog.  The point spread is similar for this playoff game, and I expect another Argos upset win.  The Alouettes have had just one SU/ATS win among their last seven games, and have been outscored over their final 7 games by a 177-148 tally.  In contrast, Toronto's aggregate score over its last 7 games is 241-192.  Finally, underdogs (or PK) on 4-game (or better) ATS win streaks have cashed 82% in the CFL Playoffs.  Grab the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Montreal Alouettes and Toronto Argonauts to go UNDER the total.  Last week, the Argonauts erupted for a season-high 58 points, which was 19 points greater than their second-best offensive performance of the season.  Off that extremely high-scoring game, we'll look for a lower-scoring game in this CFL Playoff game.  Indeed, the Argos have gone 12-1 UNDER in competitively-priced games with point spreads of 3 or less, after scoring more than 35 points in their previous game.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the UNDER in the Ottawa/Toronto game.  These two teams met two games ago (also here, in Toronto), and the Argonauts won a high-scoring game, 38-31.  Then, Toronto ended its regular season with another high-scoring game -- a 31-30 loss at Edmonton.  CFL Playoff teams have gone UNDER 64% if they tallied 30+ points in each of their two previous games.  Also, this season, the Argos were 5-0 UNDER off back-to-back OVERS.  Take Toronto and Ottawa UNDER the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Winnipeg Blue Bombers minus the points over Montreal.  These two teams met earlier this season in Manitoba, and the Alouettes blew out the Blue Bombers, 27-12.  This game will be played in Quebec, and we'll lay the points with Winnipeg, as it's an awesome 22-4-1 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, including a perfect 10-0 ATS away from home.  Take the Blue Bombers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Ottawa Redblacks minus the points over Hamilton.  The Redblacks are locked into their 3rd place position in the East division, and will play at Toronto in the first round of the playoffs.  But that doesn't mean Ottawa will mail this game in.  The Redblacks have lost their last five games, so their coach, Bob Dyce, will want to right the ship heading into the post-season.  They will welcome the 7-10 Tiger-Cats to TD Place Stadium, and the Ti-Cats will miss the playoffs for the first time since 2017.  We will take Ottawa, as it plays with revenge from a 37-21 upset loss at Hamilton last month.  And CFL teams have gone 7-0 ATS their last 7 (and 75% since 2006) in their final game of the regular season, if they were playing with revenge from an upset loss.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 7 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the British Columbia Lions minus the points over the Montreal Alouettes.  It's true that each of these two teams is locked into its Playoff seed, so neither "needs" to win this game.  However, this is the Lions' final regular season game, while Montreal will play its final game next week.  Also, the Lions are making a quarterback change, as Vernon Adams, Jr. is returning after missing the previous eight games.  Adams was injured midway through the season, but was in contention for the Most Outstanding Player award at that time.  Adams was 171-for-266, for 2,544 yards, and 14 touchdowns in his eight games.  Nathan Rourke replaced Adams, and Rourke's production paled in comparison.  In his eight games, he was 136-for-209, for 1,781 yards, and four touchdowns.  So, even though B.C. doesn't "need" the game, it will certainly WANT to play well in its final game, and establish a rhythm with Adams back under center.  Also, defending Grey Cup champs have been poor in their final road game of the season, as they've cashed just 35.7%.  Lay the points with British Columbia.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Ottawa Redblacks + the points over Toronto.  The winner of this game will get a leg up in the race for the #2 seed in the East division (and the home field advantage in the initial playoff game).  So, both teams will greatly want to win.  We'll side with the underdog Redblacks, and go against an Argonauts squad which enters off an upset win over Winnipeg, as a 3.5-point road underdog.  Unfortunately for Toronto, home favorites off upset wins as an underdog of more than 3 points, have cashed just 30.7% vs. division foes off a SU loss.  Take Ottawa + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Ottawa Redblacks + the points over Montreal.  The defending champion Alouettes are 11-3-1, and have already clinched the East division title, and a bye into the semi-final round of the playoffs.  So, its last three games of the regular season are a bit meaningless.  Meanwhile, Ottawa is sitting in 3rd place in the division, and will play Toronto in the first round of the playoffs.  That much is known.  But Ottawa can still leapfrog Toronto in the standings (they play next week) and host the playoff game.  So, this afternoon's game still has great meaning for the Redblacks.  We will grab the points with Ottawa, as defending Grey Cup champs (like Montreal) are a horrible 40-74-3 ATS when favored by more than 4 points, if they weren't off a double-digit loss.  Even better:  Montreal won the season's first two meetings by scores of 47-21 and 24-12.  But double-revenge-minded road dogs have cashed 82% in the regular season if they lost season's prior two meetings by more than 10 points.  Grab the points with Ottawa this afternoon.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Calgary Stampeders and Edmonton Elks to go UNDER the total. The defenses of these two teams are both surrendering a lot of points. The Elks' defense is giving up 28.25 ppg, while the Stampeders' defense is allowing 30.0 ppg. The upshot is that each team has tended to play high-scoring games that have gone over the total. The Elks have gone 10-5-1 over the total, including each of its last two games, while the Stampeders have gone 9-6 over. The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another high-scoring game, here. But we will run the other way, and look for this game to go under the total, as Edmonton is 7-0-1 UNDER following back-to-back overs. Additionally, the first two meetings between these teams went over the total. However, CFL games have gone UNDER 60% if the season's two prior meetings both went over. Take the UNDER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Winnipeg Blue Bombers and Toronto Argonauts to go Under the total.  We played on the Under in Winnipeg's game vs. Hamilton last week, and were rewarded with a low-scoring 31-10 win by the Blue Bombers.  That moved Winnipeg's O/U record this season to 13-3 Under the total.  These two teams met in Toronto earlier this season, and the Argos won a very low-scoring game, 16-14.  Winnipeg is 93-62-4 Under the total when playing with revenge, including 75-38 when the O/U line was 49+ points.  Take Winnipeg + Toronto Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 7 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Edmonton Elks + the points over Saskatchewan.  The Elks currently sit in 4th place in the West division, and need to win on Saturday to avoid being eliminated from playoff contention.  After covering six straight games, from August 3 to September 7, the Elks lost back-to-back games to Winnipeg, including a 55-27 defeat last Friday.  We'll take the Elks to bounce back off that debacle, as underdogs have gone 39-25-2 ATS off a loss by 28+ points.  Likewise, teams have cashed 78% following a road loss in which they gave up 55+ points.  Finally, the Roughriders are 0-10 ATS as a road favorite of less than 7 points vs. foes off back to back losses.  Grab the points with Edmonton.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the UNDER in the Hamilton/Winnipeg game.  Last week, Winnipeg erupted for 55 points in a 55-27 blowout of Edmonton.  But prior to that offensive explosion, the Blue Bombers had averaged just 23 ppg.  And they had gone UNDER the total in 12 of their previous 14 games!  Winnipeg has also gone UNDER in 24 of the last 34 meetings with Hamilton.  We'll look for Winnipeg to revert to form on Friday, and take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the UNDER in the Saskatchewan/Ottawa game.  The O/U line for this game has been installed at 51.5.  We'll take the UNDER, as the Redblacks have gone 13-5 UNDER on the road when the O/U line was north of 51 points.  Likewise, the Roughriders are 18-8 UNDER at home when the O/U line was greater than 51 points.  These two teams met in Ottawa last month, and that game finished in a 22-22 tie -- easily going UNDER the total of 48.5 -- as it was tied at 13 at the end of regulation.  The number for this game is considerably higher, and I think the value is squarely on the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Hamilton Tiger-Cats and British Columbia Lions to go UNDER the total.  The Ti-Cats have gone 'over' the total each of their last 3 games, including a 33-31 victory at Toronto last week, which went over the total of 52.5 by 11.5 points.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another high-scoring game here, especially because the previous meeting between these teams this season was a 44-28 win by BC.  But Hamilton has gone 20-9 UNDER its last 29 road games where the O/U line was 47+ points.  And CFL games have also gone 77-56-1 UNDER when a team played its previous three games Over the total, and went Over by 7+ points in its previous game.  Take the Lions & Tiger-Cats UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Hamilton/Toronto game.  Both of these teams won high-scoring games last weekend.  Toronto blew out British Columbia, 33-17, while Hamilton knocked off Ottawa, 37-21.  But off those high-scoring victories, we'll look for the offenses to take a holiday tonight.  Indeed, games between two teams that were off wins in which they each scored more than 30 points, have gone 72% under since 2018.  Even better:  Hamilton is 9-1 UNDER on the road following a SU win which went Over the total.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Montreal/Calgary game.  The Stampeders went Over the total for the 5th straight game in last week's 37-16 loss at Edmonton, while Montreal also went Over in its last game -- a 37-23 upset loss to British Columbia.  We'll take this game UNDER, as teams off back to back OVERS have gone Under 59.2% when matched up against another team that also went Over in its previous game.  Take the Stamps & Alouettes UNDER the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Ottawa/Hamilton game.  These two teams met earlier this season in Ottawa, and the Redblacks won, 24-22, sending it UNDER the total.  The Under has now gone 12-6 the last 18 meetings between these teams, and we'll look for another low-scoring game here, as the UNDER falls into 201-122 and 297-218 Totals systems of mine.  Even better:  the Redblacks enter off a 41-27 upset win over Toronto.  And the Redblacks are 26-16 UNDER following a game which went Over the total.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Edmonton/Calgary game.  The Stampeders enter tonight's game off 4 straight high-scoring games that went over the total.  We'll look for a reversal tonight, as CFL teams off exactly 4 Overs have proceeded to go UNDER the total in their next game 56.8%.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Calgary Stampeders + the points over Edmonton.  The Stamps were blown out, 35-20 by Edmonton this past Monday.  We'll take the underdog Stamps, as Calgary has cashed 69.5% off a double-digit loss when playing with revenge.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Saskatchewan Roughriders + the points over Winnipeg.   These two teams played six days ago in Regina, and the Roughriders were upset by the Blue Bombers, 35-33.  We'll take the revenge-minded Roughriders + the points, as road underdogs have cashed 73% off an upset home loss to a division rival in rematches of a game played the previous week.  Take Saskatchewan.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Edmonton Elks and Calgary Stampeders to go Under the total.  The Stampeders' defense has been leaky their past two games, as they gave up 31 to Ottawa in their most recent game, and 39 to Toronto before that.  We'll take the Under, as teams that gave up more than 30 points in each of their two previous games have gone Under 57%.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Hamilton Tiger-Cats + the points over Toronto.  The Tiger-Cats are just 2-9 this season, and have lost their last four in a row.  But one of their two triumphs was against this Argonauts team.  The first meeting was also played at Hamilton, and the Tiger-Cats won outright, 27-24, as a 4-point home dog.  The number is slightly higher for this rematch, and we'll grab the points, as Toronto is a terrible 22-38-2 ATS on the road, including 9-17-1 ATS with revenge, and 1-4 ATS its last five as a road favorite.  Take Hamilton.

At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Hamilton/Toronto game.  The first meeting between these two division rivals went under the total, as have five of the last six games in this series.  We'll look for yet another low-scoring game between these teams, as the Under falls into a 113-68 Totals system of mine.  Take the Under.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the British Columbia Lions minus the points over Ottawa.  These two teams met last Saturday, and the Redblacks came away with a 34-27 victory at home.  But that was Ottawa's first win vs. the Lions in nine games.  And the Lions are also 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  We'll lay the points with British Columbia in this rematch, as favorites have cashed 58% vs. foes they lost to in their previous game.  Take the Lions.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the game between Ottawa and British Columbia.  This is a rematch of last Saturday's game played in Ottawa, won by the Redblacks, 34-27.  That game went over the total of 48.5.  The oddsmakers have set this O/U line significantly higher, but I think it's too high, and we'll happily take the under.  For technical support, consider that rematches of games where the teams combined for more than 60 points have gone UNDER 58%.  Take BC and Ottawa UNDER the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Edmonton Elks and Montreal Alouettes to go UNDER the total.  These two teams played earlier this season in Edmonton, and the Alouettes won, 23-20.  That game sailed under the total of 47.5  This game will be played in Quebec, and the O/U line is significantly higher than in the first meeting.  I think it's too high.  Additionally, the Alouettes have gone 90-56-4 UNDER the total in its last 150 regular season home games.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Winnipeg Blue Bombers and Hamilton Tiger-Cats to go OVER the total.  The Blue Bombers enter tonight's game off back-to-back wins, in which they held their foes to 0 and 11 points.  And both of those victories went under the total.  I look for a much higher scoring game tonight, as teams off back to back "under" games where they held their opponent to less than 14 points have proceeded to go 12-3 OVER including 7-0 OVER their last seven.  Take the Blue Bombers/Tiger-Cats OVER the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Hamilton Tiger-Cats + the points over Winnipeg.  The Ti-Cats enter tonight's game on a 3-game SU/ATS losing streak, while the Blue Bombers have won and covered their last two.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to lay the points with red-hot Winnipeg vs. ice-cold Hamilton.  But CFL underdogs of > 9 points have gone 100-80-5 ATS.  And the underdog in this series has gone 27-17-2 ATS.  Grab the points with the Ti-Cats.  Good luck, as always..Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Saskatchewan/Toronto game.  The Roughriders have gone Over the total in 7 of their 10 games this season, including a 30-23 victory over the Argonauts in Regina, back on July 4.  Based on my numbers, this O/U line is a bit inflated, and we'll look for a relatively low-scoring game this evening.  For technical support, consider that CFL teams have gone UNDER 55.7 percent, if they have gone over the total 4+ games more than they've gone under during the season.  Additionally, the Roughriders are 99-68 UNDER the total away from Regina.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the OVER in the Winnipeg/British Columbia game.  These two teams met two weeks ago, and the Blue Bombers upset the Lions, 25-0.  In this rematch, we'll look for a higher-scoring game, as CFL games have gone OVER the total 57.6% if the previous meeting in the season totaled 25 or less points.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Hamilton Tiger-Cats + the points over Edmonton.  These two teams met 3 games ago, and the Tiger-Cats defeated the Elks, 44-28.  But since that game, the Elks have gone 2-0 SU/ATS, while the Ti-Cats have gone 0-2 SU/ATS.  We'll take Hamilton to bounce back, as CFL underdogs off back-to-back SU/ATS losses have cashed 61.9% vs. revenge-minded foes off back-to-back SU/ATS wins.  Take Hamilton + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the UNDER in the Hamilton/Edmonton game.  These two teams played two weeks ago, and the Tiger-Cats won a high-scoring affair, 44-28, easily sending it over the total of 51.  The oddsmakers have set the O/U line higher for this rematch, and the knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another high-scoring game.  But consider that CFL games have gone UNDER 61.1% if the first meeting went Over the total by more than 18 points.  We'll look for a relatively low-scoring game on Saturday.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Saskatchewan Roughriders + the points over Montreal.  These two teams met earlier this season, and the Alouettes triumphed, 20-16.  We'll fade Montreal in this rematch, as defending Grey Cup champions have covered just 40.2% as a favorite when playing a revenge-minded foe.  Saskatchewan is 6-0 ATS its last six as a home underdog.  And it's 24-11 ATS as a home dog when it wasn't off a SU win.  Take the Roughriders.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the UNDER in the British Columbia/Edmonton game.  This is the 2nd meeting of the season between the Lions and Elks.  The first meeting was won, 24-21, by the Lions -- their 8th straight win vs. the Elks -- and it went under the total of 53.5 by 8.5 points.  That was also the 5th meeting of the last six between these West division rivals that went Under the total.  Last week, the Lions were shut out, 25-0, by Winnipeg.  And that was BC's 2nd straight game to go Under.  We'll look for another low-scoring game on Sunday, as CFL teams off a game where they didn't score more than 10 points have gone 61% UNDER if the O/U line was > 47 points in the current game.  Take the Lions/Elks UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the British Columbia Lions + the points over Edmonton.  We played against BC last week, and got the $$$ when Winnipeg upset the Lions, 25-0.  But off that upset defeat, we'll step in and grab the points with the road team vs. the 1-7 Elks.  For technical support, consider that underdogs off upset losses by 25+ points have covered the spread 73% vs. foes off SU/ATS wins.  That bodes well for BC as a road dog.  As does the fact that favorites with a win percentage < .140 have gone just 28-39-1 ATS, including 6-18-1 when priced as a favorite of -3 or less.  Take BC + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the UNDER in the Montreal/Hamilton game.  These two teams played last week, and went under the total in a 33-16 Alouettes win.  And that's the way we will look again for our Over/Under play, here.  Indeed, 33 of the last 52 meetings between these East division rivals have gone Under the total, including the last four straight.  And Montreal is 90-55-4 UNDER at home in the regular season.  Take the Alouettes/Ti-Cats Under the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 7 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Hamilton Tiger-Cats + the points over the Montreal Alouettes.  This is a rematch from last week's game won by Montreal, 33-16, as a 4-point road favorite.  The defending Grey Cup champions are now 7-1 SU, while the Ti-Cats fell to 2-6 SU.  We'll take the revenge-minded Tiger-Cats, as teams playing with revenge from a loss in their previous game, in which they failed to cover by more than 11 points, have cashed 60.6% since 2006.  Even worse for Montreal:  defending champs are a wallet-busting 1-16 ATS as a favorite off back to back wins, if their foe both lost by 9 and failed to cover the spread by 9 in its previous game.  Grab the points with Hamilton.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Toronto Argonauts minus the points over the Calgary Stampeders.  These two teams met last Sunday, and the homestanding Stamps got the better of the Argos, 27-23, covering the 3-point spread by 1 point.  We'll take the revenge-minded Argos to bounce back and avenge that defeat with a convincing home win on Friday night.  Indeed, .500 (or better) home favorites that lost on the road the previous week to their opponent have cashed 61%.  Lay the points with Toronto.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Saskatchewan Roughriders + the points over the Ottawa Redblacks.  The Redblacks are 5-2 following a 33-6 win over Calgary, while Saskatchewan is 5-3 after losing last week, 42-31, to Edmonton.  And that was Edmonton's first win of the season, following an 0-7 start.  We'll take the Roughriders to bounce back off that ignominious defeat, as underdogs of +2 (or more) points have gone 11-0 ATS after losing SU/ATS to a winless foe.  Even better:  the Roughriders are 9-2-1 ATS off an upset loss when matched up against a foe off back-to-back wins.  And they're 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with Ottawa.  Grab the points with Saskatchewan.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Toronto/Calgary game.  Both of these teams come into this game off poor offensive outings.  Calgary managed just 6 points vs. Ottawa, while Toronto tallied 16 (but just 13 in regulation) in its 16-14 overtime win vs. Winnipeg.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another low-scoring game, here.  And, indeed, the bettors have been playing the under, as this line has significantly dropped from its Opener (it opened 51 at DraftKings and 50.5 at Bet365).  We'll run the other way and take the OVER, as games have gone 11-2 OVER (including the last 8 in a row), where one team scored 6 or less in its previous game, and its opponent scored less than 17.  And CFL games have gone OVER 62% if a team scored 6 or less in its previous game, while that game totaled 23 or less.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Edmonton Elks + the points over the Saskatchewan Roughriders.  These two teams opened the 2024 season against one another, and the Roughriders upset the Elks, 29-21, as a 1-point road underdog.  This rematch will be played at Mosaic Stadium, and the Roughriders have been installed as a home favorite against the winless (0-7) Elks.  We'll take the road underdog, as Edmonton is a terrific 10-0-1 ATS on the road when playing with revenge from a loss to Saskatchewan.  Additionally, winless teams, with an 0-7 (or worse) record, have cashed 63%.  Grab the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the under in the Hamilton/Montreal game.  The Alouettes come into this game with the league's #1 defense in points allowed (18.9), and yardage given up (317.3), as well as passing yards allowed (223.1).  Montreal is also 2nd in turnovers forced, and 4th in sacks.  Not surprisingly, four of the Alouettes' seven games have gone under the total.  Moreover, when the Alouettes and Tiger-Cats get together, the result is generally a low-scoring game.  Dating back to 2013, the under has cashed 20 of 30, including 3-0 the last 3, and 9-2 the last 11.  And in games played at Hamilton, the under is 11-4, including a perfect 8-0 under when the O/U line was 49+ points.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Winnipeg Blue Bombers + the points over British Columbia.  The Blue Bombers are the most disappointing team in the league.  After a 14-4 campaign in 2023, which culminated with a loss in the Grey Cup to Montreal, the Blue Bombers had high hopes for 2024.  Indeed, they were favored by 8 points in Week 1 over the defending champion Alouettes, but were upset at home, 27-12.  That loss kicked off a 4-game losing streak to start the year, and they're currently 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS.  Among Winnipeg's six losses was a 25-24 home defeat to these Lions, back on June 24.  Winnipeg was a 3-point home favorite in that game, so one can see the adjustment by the oddsmakers because tonight, Winnipeg is a big home underdog.  We'll happily step in and take the Blue Bombers + the points, and note that they are 16-0 ATS their last 16 when playing with same-season revenge, and not favored by 4+ points.  Take Winnipeg.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the UNDER in the Hamilton/Edmonton game.  This matchup features two very bad teams.  Hamilton is 1-5, after defeating Toronto, 27-24, while Edmonton is 0-6 after losing to Ottawa, 20-14 (which was the Elks' first game under new head coach, Jarious Jackson).  And CFL games between two bad teams, with win percentages < .375 at Game 3 forward, tend to be relatively low-scoring, and especially with O/U lines of 52+.  Those games have gone under 86% dating back 15 years.  Likewise, winless teams, with 0-2 (or worse) records have gone 38-20 under when the line was 50+ points.  And, finally, teams like Edmonton, that scored less than 15 points in their previous game, have gone Under 57% since 2006 when the O/U line was 50+ points.  Dating back to last season, the Elks have now lost 10 straight games.  And I don't believe Jackson, in his new position as head coach, will be able to quickly solve the team's woes.  We'll take the Under in this Elks/Tiger-Cats game.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Winnipeg Blue Bombers + the points over Toronto.  Last week, Winnipeg fell, 19-9, to Saskatchewan, while Toronto lost, 27-24, to Hamilton.  The Blue Bombers are 2-5 this season, and have covered just once -- in their 25-16 home win over Ottawa.  And this 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS spread ledger might make some bettors shy away from Winnipeg, here.  But not me.  Indeed, CFL teams with .300 (or worse) SU and ATS records have covered 68.1% when they weren't getting more than 3 points.  That bodes well for the Blue Bombers on Saturday.  As does the fact that Winnipeg is 9-4 ATS its last 13 vs. Toronto.  Finally, road underdogs have cashed 60.4% of non-division match-ups after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.  Take Winnipeg.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Calgary/Ottawa game.  Seven of the last nine meetings between these teams have gone UNDER the total, including 5-0 UNDER in games played at Ottawa.  And that's the way we will look, here.  The Redblacks are 4-2 UNDER this season, including 3-0 UNDER at home (where they are also 3-0 SU/ATS).  This season, Ottawa's home games have averaged just 40.66 ppg.  And they're 21-13 UNDER their last 34 at home.  Meanwhile, the Stampeders have gone UNDER 36-14-3 away from home when the O/U line is greater than 47 points.  We'll look for another low-scoring game at TD Place Stadium tonight.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Ottawa Redblacks + the points over Calgary.  The Redblacks are off to a 3-0 SU/ATS start here, at TD Place Stadium this season, and are 4-2 overall.  And they've been installed as a home underdog vs. Calgary, which is 3-3 on the season.  The Stampeders have covered the spread on the road by 5.33 ppg LESS than what they've done at home, while Ottawa has covered the spread by 13 ppg MORE at home, than what it's done on the road.  We will happily take the points with the home underdog, as home dogs (or PK) have cashed 60% in the CFL when they've owned a better win percentage than their opponent.  Take Ottawa.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Saskatchewan Roughriders and Montreal Alouettes Under the total.  The Alouettes lost their starting QB, Cody Fajardo, in their last game -- a 37-18 upset loss to the Toronto Argonauts, as a 6-point home favorite.  That was Montreal's first loss of the season, after a 5-0 start.  Caleb Evans replaced Fajardo behind center in that defeat to the Argos, and Evans is a big step-down from Fajardo.  For his career, Evans has completed just 60.9% of his passes (Fajardo is at 71.1%), and has thrown a whopping 22 interceptions, while passing for just 15 TDs.  He averages just 7.22 yards per pass attempt.  Fajardo has a career 77:49 TD-to-Interception ratio, and has averaged 8.38 yards per pass attempt.  This season, those numbers were even better (10:4 TD-to-INT ratio; 8.98 yards per pass attempt).  In its last game, Montreal scored a season-low 18 points.  That game did go Over the total, however.  Still, the Alouettes are 81-52 UNDER following a game which went Over.  And they're 11-6 Under their last 17 at home vs. the Roughriders.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Calgary Stampeders + the points over the British Columbia Lions.  Off a 35-20 blowout of Saskatchewan, and a 44-28 demolition of Hamilton before that, the Lions come into this game on a 5-game win streak (4-1 ATS).  We'll fade the Lions, as CFL road favorites, off back-to-back wins, have cashed just 43.8% since 2006.  And CFL favorites off back to back SU/ATS wins in which they scored 34+ points have cashed just 34.2% vs. foes off a SU loss.  Take Calgary + the points.  Good luck, as always, Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the British Columbia/Calgary game.  We played on all 3 unders so far this week (and won all 3).  Today, we'll look for a 'CLEAN SWEEP' on the CFL games to go UNDER this weekend.  Both of these West division rivals come into Sunday's game off back-to-back high-scoring affairs.  The Lions are off 35-20 and 44-28 wins, while the Stampeders lost, 41-37, at Winnipeg last week, and lost at Montreal, 30-26, the week prior to that.  The O/U line has been installed north of 50 points, and that bodes well for the under.  Dating back to 2006, CFL games have gone 63.4% UNDER the total when the O/U line was 52+ points, and each team was off back-to-back Overs.  Take BC/Calgary UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Toronto/Hamilton game.  In their previous game, the Tiger-Cats gave up a whopping 44 points, and fell to British Columbia, 44-28.  For the season, the Ti-Cats have been a sieve on defense, and have allowed 33.80 ppg.  And four of their five games have gone Over the total.  That has led to a very high O/U line for this evening's game.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another high-scoring game.  But we will run the other way, as CFL teams off an OVER, that allow 24 (or more) points per game, have now gone UNDER in 17 straight games with O/U lines > 52 points.  Take the Argonauts and Tiger-Cats Under.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Hamilton Tiger-Cats + the points over Toronto.  The Argos upset Montreal, 37-18, last week, which was the first time all season the defending Grey Cup champs tasted defeat.  But off that win, we'll fade Toronto, as favorites off upset wins over defending champs have had letdowns the following game, covering just 33% of the time.  Meanwhile, Hamilton has yet to win or cover a football game this season.  It's 0-5 SU/ATS after losing, 44-28, to British Columbia two weeks ago.  The good news for the Ti-Cats is that is had last week off to re-group, and get ready for this home game.  And rested home dogs off a SU loss have cashed 75% vs. foes off a double-digit win.  More good news:  home teams on 5-game (or greater) ATS losing streaks have cashed 73% if they didn't own a winning record.  We'll grab the points with the undervalued Ti-Cats.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Winnipeg Blue Bombers minus the points over Saskatchewan.  After an 0-4 start, the Blue Bombers are starting to right the ship.  They've won their last two games, straight-up, and will look to make it three-in-a-row tonight.  This will be the first meeting this season between these teams, and the Blue Bombers have dominated the series, with a 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS record.  Winnipeg walloped Saskatchewan in the previous meeting, 51-6, and I expect another easy win tonight.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Winnipeg Blue Bombers and Saskatchewan Roughriders to go UNDER the total.  We played on the Over in last Friday's Winnipeg/Calgary game, and were rewarded with a 41-37 Blue Bombers victory.  This week, Winnipeg will be on the road at Saskatchewan, and we'll look for a much lower-scoring game tonight.  Since 2006, road teams off a win in a high-scoring game, where 78+ points were scored have generally gone UNDER the total their next game, as the under has cashed 61%.  Even better:  the Under is 11-4 the last 15 games in this West division rivalry.  Take the Under.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Ottawa/Edmonton game.  These two teams met five days ago, and the Redblacks won, 37-34, and went OVER the total of 51 by 20 points.  The oddsmakers have adjusted the total for this game a couple of points higher, which I believe has created value on the Under.  Indeed, games have gone under 56.9% if the season's previous meeting went over by 20+ points.  Take the under.

At 7 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Edmonton Elks + the points over Ottawa.  These two teams met last week in Alberta, and the Redblacks upset the Elks, 37-34, as a 3-point underdog.  We'll take Edmonton in this rematch in Ontario, as teams have covered 85% since 2006 if they were upset by their opponent as a 3-point (or greater) home favorite in their previous game, and aren't getting 3+ points in the current game.  The underdog has gone 15-6 ATS in this series, while revenge-minded teams are 13-7 ATS.  Take the Elks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.