Sports Handicapper Frank Sawyer's Picks & Predictions

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SUNDAY, 12/29:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Sunday night is with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars and the Chicago Blackhawks. Dallas (20-13-1) has lost three of their last four games after their 3-2 loss at home against Minnesota on Friday. The Stars have played 7 of their last 9 games on the road Under the Total after losing at home in their last game. They have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total in December. Chicago (12-22-2) has lost three games in a row after their 6-2 loss at Buffalo on Friday. The Blackhawks have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after giving up six or more goals in their last game. They have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Take the Under. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is on a 9 of 12 (75%) All-Sports run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays after ANOTHER NFL PRIME-TIME SWEEP last night with Arizona and the Cardinals-Rams Under! Now Frank furthers his 7 of 9 (78%) NFL featured plays run with tonight’s Falcons-Commanders’ ATS winner on NBC-TV at 8:20 PM ET! WATCH and WIN — and BANK on Frank!

Frank GOT OUT HIS BROOM AGAIN in the NFL last night with Arizona and the Cardinals-Rams Under to continue his 204 of 344 (59%) NFL Prime-Time run! Frank now has 15 NFL PRIME-TIME SWEEPS this season —  and he has 37 PRIME-TIME SWEEPS since last season and 57 NFL PRIME-TIME SWEEPS since the ’22 season! Frank is also on a 13 of 19 (68%) NFL TOTALS TEAR — and now he furthers his 99 of 166 (60%) NFL Totals run with featured plays with tonight’s Atlanta-Washington O/U winner! CA$H-IN Frank’s Sunday Night Discounted Deal — IT’S A STEAL!

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (413) and the Washington Commanders (414). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (8-7) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 34-7 victory against the New York Giants as a 10-point favorite last Sunday. Washington (10-5) has won three games in a row after their 36-33 upset victory against Philadelphia as a 4-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Commanders held the explosive Eagles offense to just 338 yards last week despite Philly’s  33 points in that game. We were on the Under for that game which got crushed — but both teams averaged only 353 Yards-Per-Game in that contest. Washington held Philadelphia to just 5.08 Yards-Per-Play which was far below their 5.9 YPP season average. We observed last week that Washington’s defense continued to improve under first-year head coach Dan Quinn. They had held each of their last two opponents to exactly 245 total yards and 19 points. Since surrendering 484 yards at Baltimore, the Commanders had since held seven of their last eight opponents to no more than 332 total yards before their showdown with the Eagles. Their defense thrives at home where they went into last only giving up 4.7 Yards-Per-Play which is the second-lowest mark in the league and a big contrast to the 6.2 YPP they have given up when playing on the road. The Commanders are banged-up on offense with starting right tackle Andrew Wylie and two of their top three wide receivers, Dyami Brown and Noah Brown, out for this game with injuries. Despite the spectacular plays from rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, their offense has taken a step back lately as they rank only 16th in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play since Week Ten. Washington had five turnovers last week and endured a -3 net turnover margin — and Quinn’s teams in his career have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. Atlanta has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread win under head coach Raheem Morris. Under the radar, the Falcons defense is playing much better. Wince Week 13, Atlanta leads the league in Opponent EPA allowed — they rank fifth in Opponent EPA per rush attempt allowed and second in Opponent EPA per dropback allowed. And while the Falcons’ strength of schedule can be scrutinized during that span, it does include holding Justin Herbert to just 187 yards of offense. Since Week 15, the Falcons are second in the NFL by limiting their opponents to 241.5 total YPG and 4.0 Yards-Per-Play. Atlanta has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the second half of the season. They go back on the road where they have played 6 of their 8 games Under the Total as an underdog with Morris as their head coach. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Given the 14 MPH wind tonight in Washington, the passing game will be more difficult for both teams. The Falcons have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (413) and the Washington Commanders (414). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will playing the Atlanta Falcons (413) plus the points versus the Washington Commanders (414). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (8-7) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 34-7 victory against the New York Giants as a 10-point favorite last Sunday. Washington (10-5) has won three games in a row after their 36-33 upset victory against Philadelphia as a 4-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS PLUS THE POINTS: The Commanders are ripe for an emotional letdown after rallying from a 21-7 deficit to shock the Eagles. NFL teams after beating Philadelphia are just 9-21-2 ATS including failing to cover the point spread in both games this season. Washington is a banged-up football team with starting safety Marshon Lattimore, starting right tackle Andrew Wylie, and two of their top three wide receivers, Dyami Brown and Noah Brown, are out for this game with injuries. Four of their last five victories have been by five points or less including three of those wins by a field goal or less. The Commanders have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning three games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in December. Despite the spectacular plays from rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, Washington’s offense has taken a step back lately as they rank only 16th in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play since Week Ten. The Commanders' defense has surrendered 26.5 Points-Per-Game in their last six games — and their biggest weakness has been against defending the run. Washington is surrendering 137.0 rushing Yards-Per-Game — and they rank 29th in terms of league by surrendering 4.8 Yards-Per-Carry. They rank 25th in Opponent EPA per rush attempt allowed and 25th in Run Defense DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. The Commanders also rank 24th in Opponent EPA per pass attempt allowed. Now here comes one of the best running backs in the league Bijan Robinson who rushed for 94 yards on 22 carries last week with two touchdowns. The Falcons were last in play-action pass rate with the immobile Kirk Cousins under center — but they dialed up play-action passes on 22% of their dropbacks last week with Michael Penix at quarterback. The rookie’s frontline numbers look pedestrian: he went 18 of 27 for 202 yards with no touchdowns and an interception. But digging deeper, he had 11% of his passes dropped including one by Kyle Pitts in the end zone (and his interception came later on that drive). He ranked ninth in EPA per dropback of all quarterbacks last week — and he ranked eighth in success rate. He did not take a sack. There was a lot to like. Under the radar, the Falcons defense is playing much better. Wince Week 13, Atlanta leads the league in Opponent EPA allowed — they rank fifth in Opponent EPA per rush attempt allowed and second in Opponent EPA per dropback allowed. And while the Falcons’ strength of schedule can be scrutinized during that span, it does include holding Justin Herbert to just 187 yards of offense. Since Week 15, the Falcons are second in the NFL by limiting their opponents to 241.5 total YPG and 4.0 Yards-Per-Play.

FINAL TAKE: Given the 14 MPH wind tonight in Washington, the passing game will be more difficult for both teams. It should be a heavy dose of the Atlanta rushing attack — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams who are allowing at least 130 or more rushing YPG. The Falcons have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games under head coach Raheem Morris as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. 20* NFL Atlanta-Washington NBC-TV Special with Atlanta Falcons (413) plus the points versus the Washington Commanders (414). Best of luck for us — Frank.

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SUNDAY, 12/29:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Sunday afternoon is with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers and the Minnesota Vikings. Green Bay (11-4) has won five of their last six games after their 34-0 win against New Orleans as a 14-point favorite on Monday. The Packers have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home. They have also played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total when playing away from Lambeau Field. Minnesota (13-2) continued their eight-game winning streak with their 27-24 win at Seattle as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. The Vikings have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after winning three or more games in a row. They have also played nine of their last fourteen games at home when favored by up to seven points. Take the Over. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is on a 9 of 12 (75%) All-Sports run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays after DELIVERING their 25* NFC West Game of the Month on Arizona last night for a WINNING 2-1 Saturday! Frank is now on a 7 of 9 (78%) NFL run with featured plays — and now he furthers his 10 of 16 (63%) NFL Game of the Year/Month mark with a 25* NFL Divisional Game of the Month this afternoon! DO NOT MISS OUT!

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (425) plus the point(s) versus the Minnesota Vikings (426). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (11-4) has won two games in a row as well as five of their last six games after their 34-0 victory at home against New Orleans as a 14-point favorite on Monday night. Minnesota (13-2) rides an eight-game winning streak after their 27-24 victory at Seattle as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS PLUS THE POINT(S): Green Bay is clicking on all cylinders right now having scored 30 or more points in five straight games. Quarterback Jordan Love has not thrown an interception in this span — and the Packers’ pivot to a power running team has not only helped Love by asking him to do less, but it has also helped their defense. Green Bay has held four of their last five opponents to 17 or fewer points. The Packers' defense now ranks sixth in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders — and they rank third using their weighted Defensive DVOA numbers that privilege recent results. Green Bay has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight road games after scoring 30 or more points. They have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. They have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after a straight-up win. The Packers enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin against the Saints — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after generating a +2 or better net turnover margin in their previous game. Green Bay has covered the point spread in five straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in four or more games in a row and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games if they have covered the point spread in five straight games in the head coach Matt LaFleur era. The Packers have covered the point spread in 25 of their 37 games as an underdog under LaFleur. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 8 of their 11 games in Weeks 16 or 17 under LaFleur. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games as an underdog including eight of their last eleven contests getting points on the road. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games against fellow NFC rivals. Minnesota beat the Seahawks last week despite getting outgained by -63 net yards in that game. Despite their 13-2 record, the Vikings are only outgaining their opponents by +10.3 net Points-Per-Game. This team is reminding me of Kevin O’Connell’s squad in his rookie season as the team’s head coach with Kirk Cousins at quarterback when they went 13-4 in the regular season despite getting outgained in yardage. Minnesota has won eight of their nine games decided by one scoring possession. At home, the Vikings are outgaining their opponents by just +1.6 net PPG. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games at home when favored. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in Weeks 16-17 under O’Connell. The Packers rank fourth in Rushing DVOA and are generating 147.3 rushing YPG — and the Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home against teams who average 130 or more rushing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay wants to avenge a 31-29 upset loss at home against Minnesota as a 2-point favorite on September 29th. The Packers outgained the Vikings by +91 net yards and put up 465 total yards against their defense — but Love was coming off an injury and threw three interceptions. Green Bay has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing with same-season revenge under LaFleur. 25* NFC North Game of the Month with the Green Bay Packers (425) plus the point(s) versus the Minnesota Vikings (426). Best of luck for us — Frank.