Sports Handicapper Frank Sawyer's Picks & Predictions

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the Augusta National Golf Course for the first major championship of the year with the Masters. This a Par 72 event consisting of 7555 yards. After the course was ten yards longer, given changes at the Par-5 second hole, the length of the course is unchanged this year — however, a hurricane required the removal of some trees so the look and feel of some holes will be different this time around. The average round last year at this tournament was 73.906 which was almost a stroke higher than the 72.960 average in 2023 — and it was the second-highest average round in the last four editions. Despite the length of Augusta National which plays even longer given the elevated greens on many of the holes, this remains a second-shot course where shot-shaping and placement remain a priority. The fairways average 50 yards in width. There is no rough with the professionals having to contend with a first cut if they miss the fairway before dealing with pine straw. There are 44 sand bunkers on the course and water impacts five of the holes. Nine of the ten Par-4s are at least 440 yards in length with three of those holes consisting of at least 490 yards. The Bentgrass greens average 6500 square feet measuring up to 14 feet on the stimpmeter, which is the fastest on the PGA Tour. The tournament features 90 professionals including 12 players from the LIV Tour. The top 50 players plus ties will make the weekend cut. Weather is not expected to play a significant role in this event.

LONG SHOT: Shane Lowry (+4500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Lowry (7025) versus Russell Henley (7026) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 8:43 AM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet to win the Masters is on Shane Lowry who is listed at +4500 odds at DraftKings. Lowry is in great form this season after coming off a tie for eighth place at the PGA Valspar Challenge three weeks ago. He has four top 11 finishes in his last six PGA events this year including a second place at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He remains one of the best ball-strikers in the world. He ranks fifth on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Total — and he ranks sixth in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He also ranks fourth in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — and he ranks fifth in the field this week in that metric in the last three years at this tournament. This metric is a critical leading indicator this week as the last four green jacket winners finished in the top two for the week in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Lowry has finished in the top 12 in 12 of his last 15 events worldwide including an impressive third place in the DP World Tour Championship. Lowry had seven top-nine finishes on the PGA Tour last season including a pair of sixth-place results at the PGA Championship and the British Open. Lowry had made the cut at the Masters in his last five trips here headlined by a third place in 2022. He is lurking to put it all together. In 2022, he led the field in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee — and he ranked fourth in both Shots-Gained: Putting and Shots-Gained: Around the Green. Last year, he led the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and was fourth in Ball-Striking but lost -7.8 strokes versus the field with putter which was his worst putting numbers in his 178 PGA events in his career. Lowry is no stranger to the big stage — he has won a British Open and finished second at the US Open previously.

Lowry is linked with Russell Henley in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Henley may be enjoying his best season on the PGA Tour as his improved short game has helped complement his accuracy off the tee and with his irons. I just worry about how high his ceiling is when playing against the best players in the world. He won the Arnold Palmer Invitational earlier this year before settling for a tie for 30th place at THE PLAYERS Championship. He ranks 16th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 22nd in Shots Gained: Approach the Green which are good but not elite numbers. His biggest weakness is his length off the tee. Henley ranks 174th on the tour in Driving Distance -- and that is why he ranks 97th in Shots-Gained: Off-tee-Tee. He can also struggle with his putter in clutch situations. His best finish at a major championship was at the Masters two years ago — but he followed that up with a 38th place last year. He is playing better at the recent major championships but lacks that final gear that pros like Lowry possess. Take Lowry (7025) versus Henley (7026) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the Augusta National Golf Course for the first major championship of the year with the Masters. This a Par 72 event consisting of 7555 yards. After the course was ten yards longer, given changes at the Par-5 second hole, the length of the course is unchanged this year — however, a hurricane required the removal of some trees so the look and feel of some holes will be different this time around. The average round last year at this tournament was 73.906 which was almost a stroke higher than the 72.960 average in 2023 — and it was the second-highest average round in the last four editions. Despite the length of Augusta National which plays even longer given the elevated greens on many of the holes, this remains a second-shot course where shot-shaping and placement remain a priority. The fairways average 50 yards in width. There is no rough with the professionals having to contend with a first cut if they miss the fairway before dealing with pine straw. There are 44 sand bunkers on the course and water impacts five of the holes. Nine of the ten Par-4s are at least 440 yards in length with three of those holes consisting of at least 490 yards. The Bentgrass greens average 6500 square feet measuring up to 14 feet on the stimpmeter, which is the fastest on the PGA Tour. The tournament features 90 professionals including 12 players from the LIV Tour. The top 50 players plus ties will make the weekend cut. Weather is not expected to play a significant role in this event.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Collin Morikawa (+1700 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Morikawa (7006) versus Rory McIlroy (7005) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 9:47 AM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value at their price to win the Masters is on Collin Morikawa who is listed at +1700 odds at DraftKings. Morikawa may be playing the best golf on the PGA Tour this season. He has not finished worse than 17th place in his five tournaments — and he has two-second places. He comes off a tie for tenth place at THE PLAYERS Championship last month. The week before, he was cruising on the way to victory at Bay Hill at the Arnold Palmer Invitational before Russell Henley holed a near-miracle chip shot in big rough to register an eagle on the 16th hole on Sunday to rally from a one-shot deficit to the eventual winning one-shot victory. Morikawa was unable to birdie one of the two remaining holes and settled for second place. That setback should leave him ornery to get the win at the first major championship of 2025 — and he is way overdue. His results have been consistently good with a second place at The Sentry followed up by a pair of ties for 17th place at Pebble Beach and then the Genesis Invitational. Morikawa ranks second on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Total — so it is hard to jump off the bandwagon when priced more than four times the return that Scottie Scheffler is at +400. His putting has been an Achilles’ heel in the past — but he ranks 59th in Shots-Gained: Putting so far this season. He leads the PGA Tour in both Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He leads the field in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green for his last 50 rounds — and this metric is a critical leading indicator this week. The last four green jacket winners finished in the top two for the week in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He finished second at the PGA Tour Championship (including the adjusted starting score) in Atlanta last August. He has seven top-four finishes since playing the Masters last year. He has made the cut in all four of his previous trips to Augusta National including three straight top-ten finishes after his third place last year. As he gains more experience at this tournament, his putting on these greens continues to improve. Morikawa has already claimed a British Open and a PGA Championship at major championship events.

Morikawa is linked with Rory McIlroy in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. McIlroy comes off a fifth-place finish at the Texas Children’s Houston Open. He has two first-place results this year at Pebble Beach and THE PLAYERS Championship. The fan favorite is priced at just +650 this week despite the fact that he has not won a major championship since 2014 in a span of 36 straight majors without a win. He has had some close calls, but the muffed shots on Sunday have been more consistent than championship-level play when the lights have been brightest. The Masters remains the one major championship he has yet to win. After a heartbreaking second place at Augusta National in 2022, he missed the cut the next year before settling for 22nd place last year. While his driving has been excellent, he has been a bit off with his iron play as he ranks just 19th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He ranked eighth in that category two years ago before dropping to 52nd last year. At 35 years old, it’s McIlroy’s mental game I worry most about. There is no hiding from the top dogs if you want to invest in a player as good as Morikawa in head-to-head props. Take Morikawa (7006) versus McIlroy (7005) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the Augusta National Golf Course for the first major championship of the year with the Masters. This a Par 72 event consisting of 7555 yards. After the course was ten yards longer, given changes at the Par-5 second hole, the length of the course is unchanged this year — however, a hurricane required the removal of some trees so the look and feel of some holes will be different this time around. The average round last year at this tournament was 73.906 which was almost a stroke higher than the 72.960 average in 2023 — and it was the second-highest average round in the last four editions. Despite the length of Augusta National which plays even longer given the elevated greens on many of the holes, this remains a second-shot course where shot-shaping and placement remain a priority. The fairways average 50 yards in width. There is no rough with the professionals having to contend with a first cut if they miss the fairway before dealing with pine straw. There are 44 sand bunkers on the course and water impacts five of the holes. Nine of the ten Par-4s are at least 440 yards in length with three of those holes consisting of at least 490 yards. The Bentgrass greens average 6500 square feet measuring up to 14 feet on the stimpmeter, which is the fastest on the PGA Tour. The tournament features 90 professionals including 12 players from the LIV Tour. The top 50 players plus ties will make the weekend cut. Weather is not expected to play a significant role in this event.

BEST BET: Jon Rahm (+1300 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Rahm (7007) versus Bryson DeChambeau (7008) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 1:23 PM ET.

Our Best Bet to win the Masters is Jon Rahm who is listed at +1300 at DraftKings. Scottie Scheffler gets most of the attention in the United States, but Rahm may still be the very best player in the world —  and he should be very motivated to make a statement this year after a subpar 2024 campaign. Rahm was off for the first half of the year. His defense of his 2023 Masters title was a flop as he settled in a tie for 45th place. The burdens of being the reigning champion for the week along with the light schedule on the LIV Tour might have led to some complacency. He then pulled out of the US Open after suffering a foot injury in practice. He did regain his form as the summer came to a close. The week before the British Open, he finished in 10th place at the LIV Tour event in Spain while leading the field that week in Greens-In-Regulation. Then despite being stuck in the brutal Thursday AM/Friday PM swing at the British Open that ruined most of the scores for the professionals, Rahm battled the terrible weather and finished a very impressive tie for seventh place. He followed that up last week by winning the LIV Tour event in London. He then had the lead on the final day of Mens Golf event at the Olympics in Paris in early August before a disastrous back nine caused him to settle for fifth place. He should be angry about that one (I know I am after getting reminded about it). But Rahm has won us much more money in his career, so he is forgiven. Rahm has 11 first places on the PGA Tour including two majors with the 2021 US Open and the 2024 Masters (and were on him for both those wins before jumping off the bandwagon for last year’s Masters). He has been disappointed with his results at major championships since moving to the LIV Tour — and I suspect he plans on using 2025 to rectify this situation. While I was initially skeptical, plenty of the professionals on the LIV Tour have thrived at the four major championships. With the development of the Signature Events on the PGA Tour to compete with the financial rewards of the LIV Tour, the LIV pros may be at an advantage since their tournament schedule is more spaced out and consists of only 54 holes. Rahm has finished in the top ten in every one of the LIV Tour events this year. He may be the best driver in the world — and his iron play is elite. It was the improvement in his short game which helped him win his first two major championships. Scheffler remains very good —but the fanfare and additional responsibilities of being the defending champion add a burden. Scheffler’s price is +400 — so getting Rahm at more than three times that amount is very enticing. Rahm has registered four top ten finished at Augusta National in his seven professional trips.

Rahm is linked with Bryson DeChambeau in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. DeChambeau enjoyed his best finish at the Masters last year with his tie for sixth place. He had missed the cut the previous two years at Augusta National — and he had not finished better than a tie for 21st place in his previous six trips before last year. But a closer look at his scorecard last year reveals that he finished over par in three of his four rounds with his seven-under-par on Thursday helped by wet conditions that softened the course. Augusta National is going to be a difficult track for DeChambeau for several reasons. His desire to just bomb away is often stymied by the many obstacles on the course. Shop-shaping and strategy are rewarded. The prohibition of green books also frustrates his desire to deploy analytics to find small advantages versus his peers. DeChambeau has only played one round of golf under par in his l last ten rounds at the Masters. He can also struggle with his short game — as he did last week at a much easier course on the LIV Tour — which is not a good sign coming into this event. Take Rahm versus DeChambeau in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.