Sports Handicapper Jack Jones's Picks & Predictions

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Blazers/Knicks UNDER 221

The New York Knicks are without their top three PG's in Brunson (26.3 PPG, 7.4 APG), McBride (9.4 PPG, 2.9 APG) and Payne (7.0 PPG, 2.7 APG).  They have had to rely a lot more on defense of late with their offense out of sync without these guys.

The Portland Trail Blazers are dealing with injuries of their own that will hamper them offensively tonight.  Scoot Henderson (12.7 PPG) and Jerami Grant (14.4 PPG) are both out, while Anfernee Simons (19.3 PPG) is questionable.  I wouldn't be surprised if the Blazers are cautious with Simons since they are all but eliminated from playoff contention after three consecutive losses.

The Knicks rank 25th in pace this season and will control the tempo playing at home.  The Blazers (18th) rank in the bottom half of the league in pace as well.  The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 196, 198 and 212 points at the end of regulation.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

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15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Orioles/Blue Jays OVER 9

The Baltimore Orioles blasted the Toronto Blue Jays 12-2 in Game 1 for 14 combined runs.  The Blue Jays returned the favor with an 8-2 victory in Game 2 and 10 combined runs.  The Orioles came back with a 9-5 win in Game 3 for 14 combined runs.

The Orioles boast one of the best lineups in baseball, and there's a lot to like about this Toronto lineup as well with Bichette, Guerrero Jr., Santander and Springer leading the way.  After combining for 10 runs or more in each of the first three games in this series, it should be more of the same in Game 4 as they combine to top this 9-run total for us again.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Rockies/Rays OVER 7.5

The temporary home of the Tampa Bay Rays at George M. Steinbrenner Field has some of the best hitter dimensions in baseball.  Add to that the fact that the forecast will help us cash this OVER ticket, and this total of 7.5 is too short today.

Temps will be in the 80's with 15 MPH sustained winds blowing out to center field today.  I think after these two teams combined for a couple low scoring games in the first two games of this series, the books have set this total too short today.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on A's/Mariners UNDER 7.5

Two dead nuts UNDER teams square off today when the Oakland A's visit the Seattle Mariners at spacious, pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park.  The first 3 games of this series all saw 7 or fewer combined runs, and it should be more of the same in Game 4 in a matchup between two of the worst offenses in baseball.

JP Sears is coming off a solid 2024 season going 11-13 with a 4.38 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 32 starts.  The left-hander is entering the prime of his career at Age 29.  Bryan Woo 25 years old and has one of the best young arms in baseball.  He is 13-8 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 40 starts in his first two years in the big leagues.

Woo went 9-3 with a 2.89 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 22 starts last season for the Mariners.  He has owned the A's, going 5-0 with a 0.57 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in six career starts against them while allowing just 2 earned runs in 31 1/3 innings.  Sears is 2-4 with a 3.04 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in eight career starts against the Mariners as well.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Toronto Raptors -4

The Toronto Raptors continue to play hard almost every night.  That is evidenced by the fact that the Raptors are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  They are also pretty healthy right now with Barrett and Barnes all expected to suit up, and they have shown off their tremendous depth battling injuries all season.

The Philadelphia 76ers are in full blown tank mode going 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.  The only games they were somewhat competitive in were a 5-point home loss to the Wizards and an 8-point loss at San Antonio, which are two of the worst teams in the NBA.  They also lost by 23 at home to Miami, by 13 at Atlanta, by 13 at New Orleans and by 33 at OKC.

Making matters worse for the 76ers is the fact that they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after that 23-point loss to Miami last night.  They have 8 players listed out tonight and their are 8 of their best players.  Bet the Raptors Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Clippers/Cavs OVER 229.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are quietly playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now.  They are 10-2 SU & 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  A big reason for their success is a healthy return of Norman Powell and the trade for Bogdan Bogdanovic, surrounding Kawhi Leonard and James Harden with plenty of shooting.

The Clippers have thrived offensively scoring 119 or more points in eight of their last nine games.  The only team that held them below that number was the Thunder, who are the best defensive team in the league.  The OVER is 7-3 in Clippers last 10 games overall.  They have gone for 232 or more combined points in four of their last five games coming in.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are a dead nuts OVER team this season.  They rank 1st in offensive efficiency and 10th in pace.  They have gone 48-26 OVER in all games this season.  The OVER is 6-1 in Cavs last seven games overall with 232 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  This total of 229.5 is too short for a game involving these two teams today.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Michigan State/Auburn South Region No-Brainer on Auburn -5

It's amazing how good Auburn can be when they are dialed in.  The Tigers clearly knew they were going to be a No. 1 seed regardless of how they performed in the SEC Tournament and it showed.  They were also lackluster in their NCAA Tournament opener against Alabama State winning by 20 as 31.5-point favorites.

The Tigers started slow against UConn trailing by 2 at halftime.  They showed what they were capable of down the stretch, pulling away for a 82-70 victory as 9-point favorites.  They did the same thing against Michigan, trailing by 8 points with about 12 minutes left.  That's when they decided their season was on the line, and they locked in from that point outscoring the Wolverines by 21 the rest of the way to win 78-65 and cover as 9-point favorites.

If Auburn is anywhere near at its best for 40 minutes, it will crush Michigan State.  The only hope for the Spartans to keep this game competitive would be an off game for Auburn, and considering a trip to the Final 4 is on the line I expect we get their best effort.

Michigan State needed late surges to beat both New Mexico by 8 and Ole Miss by 3 the last two rounds.  The Spartans have been getting by with hustle, defense and rebounding because they rank just 318th in the country in 3-point shooting at 31.1%.  This is where their lack of shooting finally hurts them as they can't hang with a team the caliber of Auburn without it.

Ole Miss is a common opponent and Auburn went 3-0 against Ole Miss this season winning those three meeting by a total of 45 points, or by an average of 15 points per game.  Michigan State pretty much trailed Ole Miss the entire way and was life and death.  This is a big step up in class for the Spartans against an Auburn team with no weaknesses ranking 3rd in adjusted offense and 8th in adjusted defense.  It's also a home game for the Tigers basically less than two hours from campus in Atlanta.  Bet Auburn Sunday.

20* CBB Sunday Elite 8 Total DOMINATOR on Michigan State/Auburn UNDER 150

Two elite defensive teams square off in the Elite 8 Sunday when Michigan State takes on Auburn in the South Region final.  This profiles as a defensive battle with points very hard to come by, especially for Michigan State.

The Spartans rank 4th in the country in adjusted defense and have been riding defense and rebounding to the Elite 8.  They have gotten away with just how poor of a shooting team they are, largely due to their soft schedule to this point.  The Spartans rank 318th in 3-point percentage at 31.1% this season.  They rank just 329th in 3-point rate at 32.8%, so at least they know they shouldn't be taking a ton of them.  That also allows them to set their defense with fewer long rebounds.

Auburn ranks 8th in the country in adjusted defense and 11th in effective FG percentage.  The Tigers have great defensive guards across the board, and they have two great defensive big men inside led by Broome and Cardwell.  Nothing will come easy for the Spartans in this one.  I also like the fact that neither team really looks to push the pace as both rank middle of the pack in tempo.

Michigan State is a dead nuts UNDER team going 25-11 UNDER in all games this season.  They are 14-4 UNDER in their last 18 games overall with 149 or fewer combined points in 13 of those 18 games.  That includes 143 with Ole Miss and 134 with New Mexico in their last two games coming in.

Auburn has been an UNDER team since the start of the NCAA Tournament.  The Tigers are 4-1 UNDER in their last five games overall with 146 or fewer combined points in four of those five games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.