Sports Handicapper Jack Jones's Picks & Predictions

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: San Diego Padres +115

The San Diego Padres will be highly motivated for a win tonight and avoid the sweep after dropping the first two games of this series to the Houston Astros.  It's rare you'll get the opportunity to back Dylan Cease as an underdog, and we'll take advantage tonight.

Cease went 14-11 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 33 starts in his first season for the Padres with 224 K's in 189 1/3 innings.  Cease has owned the Astros, going 1-0 with a 0.44 ERA and 0.48 WHIP in his last three starts against them, allowing just one earned run and 10 base runners in 20 2/3 innings.

Framber Valdez consistently gets too much respect from the books.  He has allowed 12 earned runs in 9 innings in two starts against the Cardinals and Giants this season.  Valdez has allowed 5 earned runs in 13 innings in his last two starts against San Diego.  Bet the Padres Sunday.

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15* Heat/Cavs TNT ANNIHILATOR on Miami +12.5

The Miami Heat actually ranked No. 1 in the entire NBA in net rating (+14) over the final 12 games of the regular season.  They carried over that positive momentum becoming the first No. 10 seed to make the playoffs since the play-in was introduced.  They did so by going on the road in both games upsetting the Bulls 109-90 in regulation and the Hawks 123-114 (OT).

I think they keep the momentum in Game 1 of this series against the Cleveland Cavaliers.  The Cavaliers could have some rust factor especially after resting starters down the stretch of the regular season and being off since April 13th for a full week, which is more when you factor in the rest.

The Heat are 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Cavaliers, so they clearly match up well with them.  This game will be much closer than the spread suggests.  Bet the Heat Sunday.

15* Padres/Astros ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 7

This total of 7 is too low with just how much these two big name starters are struggling to start the season.  Dylan Cease is 1-1 with a 6.64 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in four starts this season while allowing 15 earned runs in 20 1/3 innings.  Framber Valdez is 1-2 with a 4.91 ERA in four starts this season.  Valdez has allowed 12 earned runs in 15 innings in his last three starts.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Reds/Orioles OVER 9

The Reds are heating up at the plate scoring an average of 5.7 runs per game in their last nine games.  The Orioles are scoring 4.8 runs per game on the season with one of the most potent lineups in baseball.  These teams combined for 11 runs in Game 1 and 14 runs in Game 2 and it will be more of the same today.

Brent Suter is an opener for the Reds and the Orioles will get into their bullpen early.  Charlie Morton is washed up allowing 18 earned runs and 4 homers in 18 1/3 innings in his four starts this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Yankees/Rays OVER 8

The Tampa Bay Rays play in a hitter-friendly Minor League park.  It is also hot outside with temps approaching 90 today with the ball flying out.  That was the case in a 10-8 victory for 18 combined runs yesterday, and the Rays are now 7-2-2 OVER in their last nine home games with 9 or more combined runs in nine of those 11 games.  This total of 8 is too low today.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on DBacks/Cubs on OVER 7

These are two of the most potent lineups in baseball.  The Diamondbacks are scoring 5.6 runs per game while the Cubs are scoring 6.2 runs per game this season.  Arizona has scored at least 5 runs in six of its last seven games coming in.  Chicago has scored at least 6 runs in six of its last seven home games.

Merrill Kelly has allowed 12 earned runs and 3 homers in 15 2/3 innings in his las three starts.  Jameson Taillon has allowed 13 earned runs and 5 homers in 22 2/3 innings in his four starts this season.  One of those starts came against Arizona on March 28th when he allowed 6 earned runs and 2 homers in 4 1/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Grizzlies/Thunder ABC Early ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma City -12.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are 68-15 SU & 55-24-4 ATS this season with almost all their wins coming by double-digits.  The Thunder are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their four meetings with the Grizzlies this season with all four wins coming by 13 points or more.  

The Thunder are champing at the bit to prove their are the best team in the NBA starting with Game 1 of this series.  The Grizzlies could relax a little after needing two play-in games just to make the playoffs after beating the Mavs on Friday night.  Now they have a quick turnaround for an early 1:00 EST start Sunday and won't be ready.  Bet the Thunder Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Thunder OVER 225

Two dead nuts OVER teams that like to play fast square off in this series.  The Grizzlies rank 1st in pace while the Thunder rank 5th.  The Thunder and Grizzlies have combined for at least 229 points in four of their last five meetings.  This total of 225 is too short today.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Warriors/Rockets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston ML -115

The Golden State Warriors needed the play-in and a narrow win over the Grizzlies just to get into the playoffs.  They got huge games from Jimmy Butler and Steph Curry and were still life and death with the Grizzlies at home.  That's the problem for the Warriors is they just rely too much on two guys.  Now Jonathan Kuminga is a DNP coach's decision and not even in the rotation, which is a big mistake I think.

The Rockets may be the single-most underrated team headed into the playoffs.  They earned the No. 2 seed in the West thanks to being a Top 5 defense and a better offensive team than they get credit for.  I love Amen Thompson, who is the best guard in the league to defend Steph Curry.  He learned a lot in four matchups and will be on Curry like glue.  The Rockets take Game 1 tonight.  Bet the Rockets Sunday.

20* Magic/Celtics ABC No-Brainer on Orlando +14

The Orlando Magic played their best basketball of the season down the stretch to secure the 7th seed and a home game in the play-in.  The Magic went 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their final five games in which they played their starters, and then went on to crush the Hawks 120-95 as 6-point home favorites in the play-in.

I like the fact that the Magic have that playoff feel already in their veins and they thrived against the Hawks.  I think they carry that momentum into this game with the Celtics, who are fat and happy after winning the NBA Title last season.  The Celtics could also show plenty of rust in Game 1 after being off since April 13th which was a week ago.  They also rested starters down the stretch, so rust will be a factor.  

The Magic are 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Celtics with five outright upsets.  Bet the Magic Sunday.