Sports Handicapper Matt Fargo's Picks & Predictions

This is a play on the ORLANDO MAGIC for our NBA Tuesday Signature Enforcer. Orlando has lost three straight games, failing to cover any of those, but those were against Milwaukee, Boston and Denver which are a combined 34 games over .500 and all ranked in the top nine in the league power rankings. The Magic have been better at home than on the road and their road record is identical to the home record of Toronto but the line is set correctly with the overall body of work. They have had their struggles against the top teams but are 17-4 against teams ranked outside the top 16. Toronto had won two straight games and pretty impressive ones against Golden St. and Boston before losing at Milwaukee by 18 points on Friday and now they are back home where they are 9-13. They have played a tougher schedule but overall are still No. 26 in Net Efficiency compared to Orlando which is No. 16. Toronto is 23-53 in its last 76 games following one or more consecutive losses with a scoring differential of -6.2 ppg. Here, we play on road teams with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 off a home loss, playing a team with a winning percentage of .250 or worse. This situation is 68-36 ATS (65.4 percent) with a scoring differential 0f +9.0 ppg. 10* (533) Orlando Magic

This is a play on the SMU MUSTANGS for our CBB Tuesday ACC Game of the Month. Louisville is in a stretch of playing great where it cannot lose as the Cardinals have won eight straight games since their loss at Kentucky and this is the second game of a closing stretch where they can keep the run going. Of their final 12 games, this is the only Quad 1 game on the schedule and while things can change as the schedule goes along, the Cardinals have the easiest closing slate. Louisville did beat Florida St. and Pittsburgh in its two road Quad 1 games but this one sets up differently that is not in its favor. The Mustangs are back home following a pair of road wins at Virginia and Miami, the latter coming by 43 points against a Hurricanes team that has already tossed it in. We cannot count that against them as they are back home with an 8-2 record with those losses coming against Mississippi St. and Duke, No. 17 and No. 2 respectively in the NET Rankings so this Quad 1 game is a step down and they are catching a number that is basically a win means a cover. 10* (664) SMU Mustangs

This is a play on the ARIZONA ST. SUN DEVILS for our CBB Tuesday Letdown Dominator. West Virginia responded from a 16-point loss at Houston with a major home upset over Iowa St. by seven points and the Mountaineers have covered three straight games, all as underdogs. Now they are in the ultimate letdown spot following the court storm and now they are overpriced because of that win. They are now 9-1 at home with the loss coming against Arizona by 19 points and that is not a great Arizona team and this is the point to sell high especially with four straight revenge games on deck. Arizona St. opened 1-1 in the Big 12 Conference but has since dropped its last four games but with the exception of the loss at Kansas, the last three have been competitive with defeats of 6, 6 and 7 points. The Sun Devils have played the No. 16 ranked schedule in the country, part of it because of it having played seven Quad 1 games where they are 1-6 but this is the ideal buy low spot as the chance to get their first road win of the season is a lot better but at an even better number to stay within margin. 10* (657) Arizona St. Sun Devils

This is a play on the TEXAS LONGHORNS for our CBB Tuesday Star Attraction. We played against Missouri on Saturday as we had Arkansas in what was a good spot even though it was on the road but it is now clear that Arkansas is not good as it has dropped down to the third worst team in the SEC in NET Rankings. The Tigers improved to 15-3 and are the surprise of the conference as they are in a second place tie with Alabama and Mississippi at 4-1. They have covered five straight games including that road win at Florida in their back pocket but have lost all three other Quad 1 games away from home. Texas fell to 1-4 in the Southeastern Conference following a 24-point loss at Florida on Saturday and the Longhorns have had their struggles with the conference shift. To their credit, three of the losses have come against top five teams with the other coming against No. 20 Texas A&M and the two home losses against No. 1 Auburn and No. 4 Tennessee were by five and four points respectively so now comes a break back in Austin. 10* (654) Texas Longhorns

This is a play on the OHIO ST. BUCKEYES for our CBB Tuesday Ultimate Underdog. Purdue came through on its west coast trip with a sweep in Washington and Oregon to make it seven straight wins and the Boilermakers are now 7-1 in the Big Ten Conference which puts them a half-game behind Michigan St. for first place. They are back home where they are 9-0 but it includes only two Quad 1 wins and while one was against Alabama, that was back in November and their only Big Ten win came against Maryland by five points. This is a difficult turnaround spot and making it more tough is the fact they have Michigan on deck. Ohio St. is now 10-8 following a loss against Indiana which was its third straight to fall to 2-5 in the conference but those last three losses were by a combined five points which has put the Buckeyes in the bottom 25th percentile in the Luck Ratings. All eight losses have come in the top two quadrants and six of those have come by seven points or less so this record could be a lot better. Despite being just two games over .500, they are No. 36 in the NET rankings and are undervalued here. 10* (633) Ohio St. Buckeyes

This is a play on the DAYTON FLYERS for our CBB Tuesday Signature Enforcer. Duquesne is coming off one of its best seasons as it won 25 games, won its first ever Atlantic Ten Conference Tournament and won its first NCAA Tournament game since 1969 but not much was expected this season yet the Dukes are on a run as they have won three straight games, all as underdogs, and seven of their last eight. They are 4-1 in the conference which is good for a tie for second place but now comes the highest NET ranked opponent in a spot that they should not be wanting to the face in the Flyers. Dayton snapped a three-game losing streak with a win over Loyola Chicago on Saturday but it was just by two points on its home floor and the Flyers are now just 2-3 in the conference. They have failed to cover seven straight games and come in 0-2 on the road and that is keeping this number down. To put that in perspective, they were favored by 9 and 10.5 points at George Washington and Massachusetts in their last two road games so this line has been overadjusted based on the recent results. 10* (623) Dayton Flyers

This is a play on the CONNECTICUT HUSKIES for our CBB Tuesday Supreme Annihilator. Butler snapped a nine-game losing streak with a home win over Seton Hall on Wednesday and now it goes into the worst possible environment. The Bulldogs are now 1-6 in the Big East Conference with that win being a Quad 4 victory and that was not easy. Now they go back into a Quad 1 game where they have dropped their last four and while the last three have been between 8 and 10 points, this is the worst spot of them all as the Huskies are not going to look past them. Connecticut is coming off a home loss against Creighton on Saturday to fall to 5-2 in the conference, the other loss coming at Villanova by two points. This is the first time this season the Huskies have played back-to-back home games within the conference and obviously the first coming off a loss in Storrs which was their first overall home loss. The reason for no lookahead is not only coming off the defeat but they escaped with a four-point win at Butler a month ago. 10* (620) Connecticut Huskies

This is a play on the OHIO BOBCATS for our CBB Tuesday Early Dominator. Ohio had its six-game winning streak snapped with a 12-point loss at Akron on Friday which was its first conference loss for the preseason Mid-American Conference favorites. The Bobcats are now 4-1 in the conference and this is the one break that it needs to smash as they have Kent St., Toledo and Miami on deck, three of the top five teams in conference NET rankings along with themselves and Akron. They fell to 1-7 in Quad 1-Quad 3 games with the one win coming on the road but they are 8-0 in Quad 4 games, which is where this one is with seven of those wins by more than what they are laying Tuesday. Eastern Michigan is coming off an upset win at Bowling Green as a 6.5-point underdog which snapped a three-game losing streak and it is now 2-3 in the conference, the other win coming against No. 357 ranked Northern Illinois. The Eagles are just 3-3 at home so there is no edge and the two Quad 3 losses were by 23 and 24 points. 10* (601) Ohio Bobcats