Michael Alexander NCAA Basketball Picks Archive

Rating: 2 Units

Loyola-Chicago is probably the more talented team and is a program that’s used to tournament success, so the Ramblers are going to get the love from oddsmakers. However, the value is with Chattanooga and the free bucket, as the Mocs have lost just once since January 25. Chattanooga is one of the better offensive teams in the country, as it’s a top-60 scoring offense and top-40 offensive field goal percentage. Chattanooga has been an underdog three times in this tournament and is still here. That includes scoring 109 points against Middle Tennessee. Chattanooga is 7-0 ATS and SU in its last seven games as an underdog !!!! Chattanooga is 22-12 ATS on the season overall. I’m grabbing the bucket with Chattanooga.

Rating: 2 Units

Both of these teams were able to escape with close victories in their last game and will look to advance to the NIT Championship with a win here. North Texas continues to win with great defense and they have allowed 66 points or fewer in 17 straight games. UC Irvine played very solid defense against a great UAB offense in their last game, but I don’t see them having a ton of luck in this game. This North Texas defense is going to be the best that UC Irvine has faced this season and I think the Mean Green will really slow things down here, which will throw UC Irvine off. Take North Texas to win. 

Rating: 3 Units

I was going to lean toward Auburn, but the line seems thick enough for the Spartans to get in there. You could make a good case either way here, though; it’ll be a great matchup if both teams play well. The Tigers dispatched a very good Michigan team on Friday (despite a relatively slow start), hitting a 48-33 rebounding advantage along the way. The shooting wasn’t spectacular for either team (both below 40 percent) and each squad had 15 turnovers in a pretty sloppy outing ball-control-wise. In short, it wasn’t a pretty win but Auburn gutted it out. The Tigers have now scored 78 or more points in all three national tournament outings. As for Michigan State, they shot much better (50 percent) and went a nice 19-of-22 (86.4 percent) from the line in their win over Ole Miss on Friday. The Spartans did get out-rebounded 33-29 though, and had 10 turnovers for 13 Ole Miss points. Michigan State has 71 or more points in eight straight games (a 7-1 run), so we should see a pretty healthy total here. Michigan State needs to get it going on the boards but I like them slightly better. It’ll be a great game to watch regardless. 

Rating: 2 Units

UH held on to beat Purdue on Friday night, as junior guard Milos Uzan scored the game-winning layup with 0.9 seconds left. The Cougars made only two baskets over the final eight minutes, squandering a ten-point lead. They shot 37.7 percent from the field, including 9-for-23 (39.1%) from three-point range, and won the rebounding battle 38-29, collecting 16 offensive rebounds.  The Volunteers are 8-2 straight-up in their last ten games. UT won and covered against UK, getting its revenge after losing twice to the Wildcats during the regular season. The Vols led by 15 at halftime and by as many as 19, never trailing by more than one point. They shot 50.9 percent overall, won the rebounding battle 34-24, and scored 38 points in the paint.

Rating: 3 Units

Any believer in the Law of Averages has to side with Duke in this game, as there will surely be a regression in the outside shooting from Alabama. The Tide were on fire last game, they made 25 threes while shooting 49% from deep, this performance is historic, and will not be repeated, especially considering the defense they are facing. BYU was ranked 82nd in defensive efficiency, they are not strong at defending the outside shot, but now the Tide are facing a different type of defensive threat. Duke is 5th in the nation in defensive efficiency, they will not allow Bama to run up and down the floor shooting open threes as they did last game. The Blue Devils have length and athleticism all over the floor and will be able to contest deep shots and bring Bama's three point efficiency down. Bama is not stellar on defense either, and do not have a defensive matchup for Flagg, as he is faster than Nelson and bigger than all of their guards. Duke's talent will rise to the top and get the cover here.

Tournament Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

These teams have met only once, and it was back in 2018 when Texas Tech won 69-66. Florida proved to be one of the most dominant teams in the NCAA tournament so far and is on a nine-game winning streak, so the Red Radiers will have a mountain to climb in order to advance to the Final Four. The Gators are excellent against the spread this year, and they have covered the Spread in 24 of their last 32 games. I believe that reaching the Elite 8 is the maximum for Texas Tech, and it has a slim chance to participate in the Final Four. Florida is better offensively and are in top form, so I am backing the Gators to win and cover.

Rating: 2 Units

Purdue managed to handle High Point and McNeese in the first two rounds. The Boilermakers have a much stiffer challenge here dealing with a Cougars team that is a veteran squad that has plenty of experience in big games. Houston leads the nation in scoring defense and they are the nation’s top team shooting from the perimeter on the offensive end. This isn’t the same Purdue team of the last couple of years: while Kaufman-Renn is a solid low post presence, he won’t get the clean looks he had in the first two rounds. Houston turns this game into a slog and grinds Purdue into the ground to punch their ticket to the Elite Eight.

Rating: 3 Units

Tennessee has been the more consistent team this season and has the defense that should provide the edge. However, Kentucky is one of the better offensive teams in the country and has beaten Tennessee twice the season. The Vols struggled to find an offensive rhythm in those games against Kentucky. Also, the underdog has outright won each of the last seven games between Kentucky and Tennessee and eight of the last 10 games overall. You have to go back to February 2022 the last time a favorite has won a game between these SEC rivals. It's not easy to beat the same team three times in a season, but this season and history overall suggest Kentucky and the points are the play tonight.   

Sweet 16 Tournament Crusher

Rating: 4 Units

Michigan State rolls into this matchup after winning 10 of their last 11 games and running away with the Big Ten regular season title, but this will be the most athletic team they have faced in at least a few months. The Spartans started slow against Bryant and New Mexico last weekend, but can’t afford to do that here. Ole Miss was very competitive in the SEC this year and they shot the ball extremely well last weekend in their upset win against Iowa State. This should be a great matchup between two very good teams and I think either side can win, so I will take the points with Ole Miss, as I think the MSU three point shooting will be the deciding factor.

Rating: 3 Units

Offensively, Texas Tech is averaging 80.8 points per game, which ranks 32nd nationally. Defensively, they allow 67.6 points per game, which is 54th in the nation. The Red Raiders shoot with 46.9% from the field (63rd), and with 37.1% from beyond the arc (22nd). The Red Raiders shoot with 76.4% from the free-throw line (41st), and are grabbing 33.2 rebounds per game (111th). Consider that Arkansas has won each of its last eight games against non-Conference opponents.

Sweet 16 Play of the Day

Rating: 5 Units

I’m staying with Duke. The Blue Devils are a force to be reckoned with these days, and they’re tearing right through the schedule. Duke dispatched a good Baylor team without too much difficulty in their last outing, hitting an excellent 64.4 percent from the field, 54.5 percent (12-of-22) from outside and 82.6 percent (19-of-23) from the line. The only real blemish was the 32-29 rebounding deficit (18-3 offensive), but a lot of that came in relative garbage time.  That makes 73 or more points in 13 straight games (all wins) for Duke. As for Arizona, they were able to power their way past a pesky Oregon squad thanks to 45.5 percent shooting and a 44-37 rebounding edge in their last outing. The Wildcats have posted 86 or more points in four of the last five games (all four were wins), so this one’s got the potential for a very high total. In the end I like Duke to fend off the Wildcats, though.

Rating: 2 Units

These teams have met just once before, and it was in 2021 when Maryland won. The Terrapins were lucky in the previous round, and in my opinion, they deserved to lose to Colorado State, so I believe this is the end of the road for them. The Gators did have trouble with UConn, but that's understandable given that the Huskies came to the tournament as back-to-back champions. Florida has a fantastic ATS record this year and covered the Spread in 23 of its last 31 games. I am backing the Gators to win and cover here.

Rating: 2 Units

Alabama is the more talented team and more battle-tested, so it’s going to be favored. However, this has the feeling of being a high-scoring scoring back and forth game that should be decided in the final five minutes. Alabama was the top-scoring team in the country this season but its pace produced a defense that was 356th in scoring allowed. BYU has more balance to its attack and that includes an offense that’s 25th in scoring and top-20 in field goal percentage. I don’t see either team getting many stops. I’ll take a shot with BYU and the points, as this feels like a game where the team with the ball last wins. This will be entertaining from start to finish. Give me BYU and the points. 

Rating: 2 Units

According to BartTorvik.com, UAB is rated 89th overall on the road, while UC Irvine is rated 122nd at home. Playing on the road hasn't been an issue for the Blazers in the NIT, as they've secured outright wins as six- and seven-point underdogs, respectively. Those road victories came against Saint Joseph's (rated 98th at home) and Santa Clara (51st at home). On the other side, UC Irvine's wins came over Northern Colorado (105th on the road) and Jacksonville State (98th on the road). Based on these resumes, I believe UAB is capable of pulling off another road upset due to their two way strengths of star play of Yaxel Lendeborg.

Rating: 2 Units

Kent State has been a solid road team this season, going 10-5 as the visiting team, entering this contest. The Golden Flashes have a stiff challenge here in the Ramblers though, given that Loyola Chicago is 16-1 at home on the season. The Ramblers’ lone home loss came to VCU back on January 4. Both teams are average on the offensive end of the floor and above average when it comes to playing defense. Kent State is the better free-throw shooting team and that could keep them in the contest. Loyola Chicago should win the game but it’s a close one: if you’re playing the moneyline, the Ramblers are the call but with the spread, take the points and the Golden Flashes.

Rating: 2 Units

The Mean Green play at the second-slowest pace in the country, and Ross Hodge has built this team to slow down fast-paced squads like Oklahoma State. The Mean Green had a fantastic warm-up game against Arkansas State on Sunday as North Texas earned the narrow 65-63 win. The RedWolves play at a very brisk pace and led the Sun Belt in offensive efficiency this season. North Texas' defense held the RedWolves to a very slow 61-possession game as Arkansas State shot 36.9-percent from the floor. Oklahoma State's senior forward Marchelus Avery has not played in the first two NIT games. The Cowboys have done a great job protecting home court at Gallagher Iba Arena this season, but North Texas is built to slow down the Cowboys.

Rating: 2 Units

The Patriots did a great job of that, holding Duke to nine points on 3-for-13 shooting with four turnovers. However, they let the rest of the Braves' roster beat them. Senior forward Christian Davis scored a career-high 21 points and junior center Corey Thomas came out of nowhere to match him with 21 points. Thomas scored a total of 17 points in his previous ten games combined, so him scoring 21 against the Patriots (with 11 rebounds!) is something that no one saw coming. The obvious question is, can they do it again? We're not too concerned with Chattanooga's offense on the road. Since January 1, the Mocs have played 12 games away from home and have scored at least 75 points in 11 of those games. Haslametrics maintains a rating called "Away from Home" that measures how well a team maintains their home form when they play on the road. Chattanooga is top-10 in the country in that metric. Since mid-December, the Mocs have gone 12-2 against the spread away from home.

Rating: 2 Units

The Wildcats and Ducks have both won three of their last four games. Arizona has the edge here because they're shooting the ball well, making over 50 percent of their shots and 42 percent of their three-pointers  in their last three games, while the Ducks make 45 percent of their shots and 34 percent of their three-pointers. They've also done a better job at the charity stripe, making over 77 percent of their free throws. Their ball movement is very good and they rebound the ball well, grabbing more than 10 offensive rebounds per game, which will give them more scoring chances. They also do a good job of protecting the ball and won't give up many easy-scoring chances. The Ducks have struggled defensively on the road, giving up more than 72 points per game and their perimeter defense has been the biggest issue. They are facing a team that is shooting the ball well from long distance and will have a hard time slowing them down. Go with Arizona to cover the spread.

Rating: 2 Units

The Golden Flashes are playing very good basketball at the moment and have a solid chance for another road upset. They are 9-5 on the road this season and have won seven of their last ten games. The Cardinal have been outstanding at home this season, 17-2, but are just 5-5 in their last ten. The Golden Flashes showed the ability to compete effectively on the boards against the Bonnies, outrebounding them by 17. They also showed that they could get out on the perimeter and defend, crucial against the Cardinal. Kent State is ranked 46th in the country in defensive efficiency. They'll keep the Cardinal offense at bay on the perimeter and compete on the glass to keep this game tight.

NIT Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

In this Jacksonville State Gamecocks vs UC-Irvine Anteaters Prediction, UC-Irvine is coming as -7.5-point favorites. UC-Irvine is rightfully favored, as they have a better record this season, and are very good at home, while Jacksonville State is below average on the road. Both teams are coming in good form, as UC Irvine is 7-1 in their last 8 games and 4-1 against the spread in their last 5. UC-Irvine has trouble covering spreads at home, as they are 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 home games. Jacksonville State is 3-1 in their last 4 games, and have been great covering on the road, as they are 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 road games. Given both teams’ recent form, the value here lies with the road dog, as I expect them to keep this large spread close. Take the Jacksonville State Gamecocks and the +7.5 points on the road in this one.

Rating: 2 Units

It's going to be the first meeting between these teams. It could be the end of the road for the Rams, who have been terrific lately, but they will surely not go away without a fight. I expect Colorado State to test Maryland here and cause the Terrapins a problem or two, and although I doubt they can make an upset, I believe the Rams can cover the spread. After all, they have been very good against the spread this season and covered each of their previous ten games! Colorado State has covered the Spread in 22 of its last 29 games, and I am backing the Rams to do it again today.

Rating: 3 Units

I’m on Alabama here. I just think that while Saint Mary’s shut down a similar level of offense when they beat Gonzaga twice in the regular season, I think we’re going to see the pitfalls of Saint Mary’s being in the WCC. Alabama has a high-octane offense, an underrated defense in. my opinion, and all of that while playing in the SEC, which this season was heralded by many as potentially the greatest conference in college basketball history. I just don’t see the Gaels having the horses to hang with Alabama for a full 40 minutes and I don’t think the Gaels have the chops offensively to hang around in this game either. Give me Alabama in this one.

NCAAB Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

This isn’t the same Baylor teams as years past, and that will show up in a big way here. Sure, the ACC hasn’t been as good this season as shown in the NCAA tournament, but I don’t think that takes away from how good this Duke team is. In the last game of the ACC tournament, Duke beat Louisville by 11 points, and they are similar to the Baylor team. It doesn’t matter who it was; Duke ran up the score against anyone, and they will run it up again here. Flagg and company will have a big game, and Duke will end up cruising here. Back Duke against the spread.

NCAAB Play of the Day

Rating; 4 Units

I’m staying with Florida. The Gators have been quite impressive during this win streak, and they’re coming off a dominant win over Norfolk State. In that one Florida shot a nice 48.3 percent from the field with a 41-28 rebounding edge, 20 team assists and 27-of-33 (81.8 percent) from the line. The lone blemish was the 12 turnovers, resulting in 14 Spartans points. Norfolk State has won seven straight games, hitting their stride with 86 or more points in each. As for UConn, they tamped down Oklahoma’s offense in their win this week, giving up just 32.1 percent shooting from the field and posting a 41-34 rebounding advantage. The Huskies are 6-1 in their last seven games, with 72 or more points in each victory. UConn will serve as a stout test for Florida here if the Huskies play well. That said, I like the Gators to power it out in the end and continue their excellent run.

Rating: 2 Units

The UCLA Bruins will play a very strong defense to keep Tennessee close throughout. The Bruins gave up just 47 points to Utah State in the first round and during the regular season allowed an average of only 65.1 points per game. UCLA has covered the spread in three of the last four games and seven of the last 10. Tennessee has failed to cover the spread in each of its last two games and the Volunteers have covered the spread in just two of the last eight games. Tennessee's offense is not the most potent, as they shot just 45.5% overall which was 140th, and 34.0% from 3-point territory, which was 183rd, but its defense kept the Vols ahead. However, Tennessee will face a tough UCLA defense which will keep the score low and help UCLA to steal a win late.

NCAAB Dog of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The Wisconsin Badgers (27-9, 22-13-1 ATS) didn't play their best basketball late in the regular season as they lost three of the final five games. Wisconsin lost to Oregon, Michigan State, and Penn State, but managed to clinch the No. 5 seed for the Big Ten tournament. The Badgers beat Northwestern, UCLA, and the No. 1 Michigan State to reach the conference finals, but Michigan was better 59-53.  Wisconsin is averaging 79.9 PPG (43rd) and is allowing 70.3 PPG (124th). The Badgers are getting 36.6 RPG (129th) and dish out 14.6 APG (123rd). John Tonje is the team’s top performer with 19.1 PPG and 5.3 RPG. John Blackwell has 15.6 PPG, 5.1 RPG, and 2.2 APG, while Steven Crowl contributes 9.9 PPG, 5.3 RPG, and 2.5 APG.

Rating: 3 Units

I’m going to try Creighton in this one. The Bluejays looked pretty good in their Thursday victory over Louisville, shooting a stellar 57.1 percent from the field with 45.8 percent (11-of-24) from 3-point range and a 37-32 rebounding advantage. Creighton wasn’t spectacular from the line though (14-of-21 for 66.7 percent) and had 10 turnovers for 14 Louisville points. Still, it was a nice effort against a tricky team and Creighton has now posted 71 or more points in five of the last six games (all five were wins).  As for Auburn, they didn’t have too many issues with an overmatched Alabama State team on Thursday. The Tigers shot 45 percent from the field with a 46-36 rebounding advantage, but did cough up 12 turnovers for 14 Hornets points. Auburn held Alabama State to just 37.1 percent shooting from the field so there wasn’t much danger of an upset. In six of the previous seven games however, the Tigers had give up 70 or more points. If Creighton can get that trend going again, I can see the Bluejays powering one out here. Should be an interesting matchup.

Rating: 3 Units

I’m going to go with Drake. This should be a pretty interesting matchup regardless, though. The Bulldogs are coming off a nice win over a great Missouri team, shooting 54.3 percent from the field with a 31-26 rebounding edge. It wasn’t perfect though, as Drake struggled from the line (12-of-24 for 50 percent) and had 15 turnovers for 13 Tigers points. The Bulldogs are currently riding an eight-game win streak, and they’ve been doing it with defense. Drake has been below 69 points in six of those victories. As for Texas Tech, they shot a rough 39.1 percent from the field in the win over UNC Wilmington but saved themselves with 16 points off 13 Seahawks turnovers. The Raiders weren’t great from 3-point range (28.3 percent) or the line (65.2 percent) either, which was fairly uncharacteristic of them. I do like Texas Tech to rebound in this one during a competitive game, though. 

NCAAB Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Texas A&M was able to pick up a comfortable win against Yale in their opening game and they will look to continue their hot shooting here. The Aggies have had problems shooting from the field this season, but they did shoot 51% against Yale. Michigan nearly collapsed in the second half against UC San Diego, with turnovers and poor free throw shooting being a big issue. Michigan has had issues rebounding at times this season and I think that is going to be a big issue for them in this matchup. The Wolverines will need a huge game from Wolf and Goldin in order to keep it close.

Rating; 3 Units

Don't let Pitino's words fool you, this game has special meaning. First, this will be the fifth time that he and Calipari lock horns in the NCAA Tournament and they currently are tied at two apiece. Pitino has bristled in the past about comparing the two coaches and going a game up in the rivalry will be on his mind. Second, this game will be played in Providence, a place in which Pitino led his first-ever team to a Final Four back in 1987. Pitino is still very much revered at Providence and the crowd will be backing the Red Storm. How about numbers? You can be sure that Pitino has drilled into his team about their modest +2 rebounding margin in their first game. Arkansas is ranked just 182nd in the country in rebounding while the Red Storm check in at 3rd. Freshman Bland will be under fire in just his second game back for the Razorbacks. The Red Storm are 7th in the country in forcing turnovers. Pitino will certainly pressure the Arkansas guards into mistakes. Ultimately, too much depth, too much size, and too much talent will spell victory for the Red Storm.

Rating: 2 Units

The Cowboys have a better-than-average chance of reaching the final 16 teams with a win on Saturday. They come into this game riding high after picking up their first-ever tourney win and should have a significant advantage on the defensive end against Purdue. They are 12th in the country in scoring defense and come off an opener that saw them hold a talented Clemson offense to just 13 points at the half. Some of the comeback came in the latter stages of the game and Clemson was going for broke. Until then, the Cowboys were able to dictate pace and dominate the painted area. The Cowboys will need to get out on the perimeter against the Boilermakers, a team coming off just a 5-of-15 performance from 3-point range. Momentum is a curious thing and the Cowboys certainly have it. This will come down to their ability to rebound, defend the three, and hit their free throws. Wade has his team playing loose and confident. That'll carry over today.

Rating: 2 Units

In this Dayton Flyers vs Chattanooga Mocs Prediction, Dayton is coming as -3-point favorites. Maybe the wrong team is favored in this matchup, as Chattanooga had more total wins this season and also more wins away from home than Dayton (11 to 6). The Mocs are coming in this matchup red-hot, as they are 9-1 in their last 10 games and 4-1 against the spread in their last 5. The Flyers are 5-1 in their last 6 games but only 5-5 against the spread. Given both teams’ recent form and overall records, the value lies with the underdog in this matchup. Give me the Chattanooga Mocs and the plus points in this one.

Rating: 2 Units

The Flames have won 11 of their last 12 games, while the Ducks have won eight of their last nine games. Liberty has the edge here because they're shooting the ball at a very high clip, making over 56 percent of their shots and 49 percent of their three-pointers in their last three games, while the Ducks made 48 percent of their shots and 30 percent of their three-pointers. They do a good job of finding the open man and they rebound the ball well, grabbing more than five offensive rebounds per game, which will give them more scoring chances. They don't turn the ball over much and won't give up many easy-scoring chances. The Ducks struggled defensively in recent games, giving up more than 72 points in two of their last three games, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Flames. Go with Liberty to cover the spread.

Rating: 3 Units

While Illinois comes in as the higher seed with impressive offensive numbers, they have been inconsistent this season. Xavier loves to get up and down the court and can match buckets with the best of them. The Musketeers' comeback win against Texas showcased their resilience and ability to perform in high-pressure situations. With Xavier's 7-2 record against the spread in their last nine games and offensive firepower, led by Freemantle and Conwell, they should be able to keep pace with Illinois' high-scoring attack.

Tournament Crusher

Rating: 4 Units

These teams have never met before. UConn has been in better form recently and the Huskies have a stronger defense, which, I believe, will be crucial in this encounter. Oklahoma is good when it comes to covering the spread this season and it managed to cover in each of the previous seven games. The bettors who follow trends would likely back the Sooners to cover, but not me. I can't ignore the fact that the Huskies are back-to-back national champions and that they have experience of playing big games. I am going with UConn.

Rating: 3 Units

KenPom rates Marquette as the 26th-ranked NCAAB team, including 32nd in offensive efficiency and 24th in defensive efficiency. The Golden Eagles score 76.9 points per game (98th) on 44.5 percent shooting (188th), including 32.5 percent from deep (265th). Their opponents average 68.6 points per game (73rd) on 43.5 percent shooting (168th), including 31.8 percent from beyond the arc (76th). While KenPom rates New Mexico as the 42nd-ranked NCAAB team, including 84th in offensive efficiency and 19th in defensive efficiency. The Lobos score 81.2 points per game (28th) on 45.9 percent shooting (117th), including 34.7 percent from deep (137th). Their opponents average 70.8 points per game (145th) on 42.9 percent shooting (120th), including 33.9 percent from beyond the arc (203rd).

Rating: 2 Units

Kentucky has the ability to blow the doors off given the talent gap, but we’ve seen the youth get tight in early tournament games. It’s led to early exits in the past for Kentucky. Troy has been elite defensively over the last month and has an underappreciated coach in Scott Cross. Conerway is also one of the better players the public probably has never heard of and he’s more than capable of taking over games. The senior guard who does everything offensively and can force turnovers on defense, he’ll keep Troy in this game. If somebody comes with him, this game could get hairy for the Wildcats. I want the points with Troy in this first round matchup.

Rating: 2 Units

I’m on Florida here. It’s a big number and Norfolk State in my opinion is still one of the more underappreciated low-major teams out there, but the problem is that there’s a clear talent discrepancy here, and I don’t see the Spartans being able to navigate past that here. The Spartans have been crushed more often than not in these matchups against the high seeds and Florida’s offense is so electric that I think that the Gators steamroll the Spartans here. Give me Florida.

Rating: 2 Units

The Terrapins have won four of their last five games, while the Lopes have won three of their last four games. Grand Canyon has the edge here because they're shooting the ball well, making over 51 percent of their shots in their last three games, while the Terrapins made 42 percent of theirs. Their ball movement is very good and they rebound the ball well, grabbing more than nine offensive rebounds per game, which will give them more scoring chances. They also turned the ball over less than 10 times per game in their last three games and won't give up many easy-scoring chances. The Terrapins haven't played well defensively in recent games, and they will have a hard time slowing them down. Maryland will likely win a close game, but the Lopes will cover the spread.

Rating: 3 Units

The discussion about North Carolina's record against Quad 1 teams has become a lazy talking point. The Tar Heels lost to Duke three times, fell to Michigan State by three points, and were defeated by Florida, Alabama, Auburn, and Kansas earlier in the season. Despite these losses, North Carolina remains a strong team that competed well in all of those matchups. They enter the tournament in good form, ranked as the nation's 20th best team according to BartTorvik since February 1, while Ole Miss ranks 38th over the same span. With one tournament game already under their belt, I like the Tar Heels to come out strong and secure the win.

Rating: 2 Units

Mount St. Mary’s had a big offensive showing in their win over American in the First Four but the fact remains that there is a big jump in competition from the Patriot League to a top-five team in the country. Duke has been rolling since late November, winning 26 of their last 27 games entering this game. While the situation revolving around Flagg and Brown is concerning as their status is murky at this point, We know what Duke brings to the table as they are sound on both ends of the floor. Playing within shouting distance of campus, the Blue Devils have been here, done that before and they should roll past an overmatched Mount St. Mary’s squad.

NCAAB Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

In their only previous meeting back in 2021, Memphis won 90-67 on the road, covering the spread, as the game went over the point total. In this Colorado State Rams vs Memphis Tigers Prediction, Colorado State is coming as -1.5-point favorites. Maybe the wrong team is favored in this matchup, as Memphis had more total wins this season and also more wins away from home than Colorado (10 to 7). Colorado has been one of the hottest teams, if not the hottest team, in the nation lately, with ten consecutive wins, and a perfect 10-0 against the spread in that span. Memphis has also been red-hot lately, with 9 straight wins, but are just 5-5 against the spread. This is going to be a close one, as Colorado’s elite defense goes up against Memphis’ elite offense, but the fact that Memphis has been mediocre against the spread lately, makes me lean towards Colorado State in this one.

Rating: 2 Units

Alabama comes into this matchup as one of the highest scoring teams in the country, but they don’t play much defense and they will probably be without Grant Nelson here. The Crimson Tide have allowed 104, 70, 91, and 99 points in their last four games, which is definitely a concern. Robert Morris is a huge underdog in this game, but they have won 10 games in a row and they have scored at least 82 points in three of their last four. I do think the Colonials will be able to keep this game somewhat close, especially with Alabama’s defensive issues, so give me the points with Robert Morris here. 

Rating: 2 Units

I’m on Baylor here. I just think that this is a decent matchup for the Bears, who hit their threes at a high rate and that’s the weakness of Mississippi State’s defense, defending the perimeter. The Bears are also a great offensive rebounding team and they hit their free throws at a higher rate. If this becomes a free throw contest down the stretch, I trust Baylor in this spot a lot more than I trust Mississippi State right now. Give me Baylor in this one.

NCAAB Upset Special

Rating: 4 Units

In this UC-San Diego Tritons vs Michigan Wolverines Prediction, Michigan is coming as -2.5-point favorites. The wrong team is favored in this matchup, as the Tritons have a better record this season, and are one of the best road teams in the nation this season, having 12 wins away from home, while Michigan has 7.  UC-San Diego is better than Michigan both offensively, scoring 1.5 points more, and defensively, allowing 9.6 points less. Michigan has won their last three games, having covered the spread in all, but they had lost their three previous games before that. UC-San Diego is coming off 15 consecutive wins, and are 13-2 against the spread. This is another spot, where the most popular team of the matchup gets to be the favorite, but the value in this matchup lies with the underdog. I like UC-San Diego Tritons to win this one outright, so I will gladly take the +2.5 points in my back pocket.

Rating: 2 Units

The Red Storm are on a roll these days and coming off a great effort in the Big East championship versus Creighton. St. John’s shot 52.3 percent from the field in that one with a 39-34 rebounding edge and just nine turnovers. The 50 percent (7-of-14) from 3-point range and the 21 points off 15 Bluejays turnovers certainly helped as well. That gives the Storm 71 or more points in all nine games during this current win streak.  As for Omaha, they played pretty well themselves in the Summit League Championship Game versus a tricky St. Thomas-MN team. The Mavs hit 49.1 percent from the field in that one, with a 41-31 rebounding advantage. The 12 turnovers were just about the only blemish during the win. Omaha is scoring great lately themselves—and pretty much all year, in fact. During this six-game win streak, the Mavericks have 78 or more points in each outing. That said, I’m not sure they’ll be able to keep pace with a surging St. John’s team if the Storm get going.

Rating: 2 Units

I’m on Utah State and the points here. I just feel like Utah State is the more battle-tested team here even though the Big Ten is a tougher conference than the Mountain West. Utah State had a solid non-conference schedule, and side-by-side, I just trust Utah State’s offense more in a matchup like this. I think Utah State is live in this matchup so I’ll gladly side with the Aggies and the points in this one.

Rating: 3 Units

In this Yale Bulldogs vs Texas A&M Aggies Prediction, Texas A&M is coming as -7-point favorites. This line makes absolutely no sense, as both teams have the same number of wins this season, and Yale has fewer defeats and more wins away from home. The Bulldogs are also better offensively, scoring 7.4 points per game more than the Aggies, while being a little worse defensively, allowing 1.8 points more. Yale boasts elite shooting percentages, ranking in the top 15 of the nation both in field goal and in 3-point percentage, while on the other hand, Texas A&M ranks in the bottom 40 in both shooting categories. The Aggies have not been in good form lately, as they are 2-5 in their last 7 games and 2-5 against the spread. Yale is 9-1 in their last 10 games, but 5-5 against the spread. Given both teams’ season stats and recent form, there is huge value with the underdog in this matchup. Yale is capable of winning this outright, so I will gladly take the +7.5 points in my back pocket with the Bulldogs.

NCAAB Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Arkansas finished below .500 in SEC play this year, but they won five of their last seven games to sneak into the field. The Razorbacks have some defensive issues for sure, but they can score points very quickly and they have scored at least 80 points in five of their last seven. Kansas had a disappointing season in Big 12 play and they have also had some defensive concerns, as they have allowed 88, 94, and 76 points in their last three games. Kansas has some great non-conference wins, but I can’t trust them with how they have played over the last month. Take Arkansas and the points here.

Rating: 2 Units

I’m with Tennessee here. The main thing that I’ve noticed with Wofford this year, is that when it comes to taking the step up in class and competition, this is where Wofford has had a tendency to fall flat on their faces. I think Wofford was lucky to get into the NCAA tournament, and I think Tennessee is going to make sure Wofford’s stay is short-lived and one-and-done. Give me Tennessee here.

Rating: 2 Units

The BYU Cougars recently played West Virginia, Iowa State, Utah, and Houston. BYU has won 13 of its last 16 games and hasn’t lost two straight games since February 4-8. The BYU Cougars are averaging 81.4 points on 48.7 percent shooting and allowing 70.1 points on 42.5 percent shooting. Richie Saunders is averaging 16 points and 4.4 rebounds, while Egor Demin is averaging 10.3 points and 5.4 assists. Trevin Knell is grabbing 2.4 rebounds and Fousseyni Traore is dishing 1.4 assists. The BYU Cougars are shooting 37 percent from beyond the arc and 69.4 percent from the free throw line. The BYU Cougars are allowing 34.3 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 33.6 rebounds per game.

Rating: 2 Units

The odds are very, very low Alabama State will win this game on Thursday against Auburn, but the Hornets will play well enough to cover a big spread, that at the time of publishing this article was Auburn -32. Auburn struggled down the stretch as the Tigers lost three of the last four and were 0-4 ATS. All stats, previous performances as well as strength of schedule point to Auburn winning this matchup but Alabama State is coming off a last-second victory in their First Four game and will use that momentum to remain close enough on Thursday to cover the spread. Alabama State has covered the spread in five of its last seven games and during the regular season was 3-1 ATS when a double-digit underdog.

Rating: 2 Units

SIU Edwardsville was good down the stretch to make the NCAA Tournament field but their reward for that success is a matchup with the #2 team in the land. Houston is a suffocating defensive team that will make SIU Edwardsville grind on every possession and they aren’t that good of an offensive team to begin with. Roberts may not take the floor here but Houston shouldn’t need him for this contest. Kelvin Sampson’s team has been a force in March over the last few seasons and that doesn’t change here. Houston wins the game outright but if you’re playing the line, SIU Edwardsville covers as their defense is strong enough to keep them in the game.

Rating: 3 Units

The Badgers have won three of their last four games while, while the Grizzlies have won four straight games. Wisconsin has the edge here because they're shooting the ball well, making over 45 percent of their shots. They've also done a better job at the charity stripe, making over 82 percent of their free throws. They rebound the ball well and grab more than seven offensive rebounds per game, which will give them more scoring chances. They also do a good job of protecting the ball and won't give up many easy-scoring chances. The Grizzlies aren't very good defensively and they're giving up more than 75 points per game on the road, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Badgers. Go with Wisconsin to cover the spread.

NCAAB Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

This should be a fantastic matchup to start the Tournament on Thursday afternoon, as both teams lost in their conference championship games. Creighton has won four of their last five games, but they have had consistency issues and barely beat DePaul just three games ago. Louisville has won 11 of their last 12 games, but they had a close call with a below-average Stanford team three games ago. Creighton is the better shooting team and I really like the duo of Kalkbrenner and Ashworth. This is going to be a tight game to the very end, but I think Creighton gets the job done behind a huge game from Kalkbrenner.

Rating: 2 Units

San Francisco rates as the stronger team, but the Dons have also had Marcus Williams in 31 of their 33 games this season, and missing him will be a substantial blow. One of San Francisco's biggest defensive strengths is defending the three-point line, but Utah Valley doesn't take many threes (345th in attempts), so it will not affect them as much as the Dons' typical opponents. Utah Valley is also a stronger rebounding team and I expect them to grind out a cover.San Francisco rates as the stronger team, but the Dons have also had Marcus Williams in 31 of their 33 games this season, and missing him will be a substantial blow. One of San Francisco's biggest defensive strengths is defending the three-point line, but Utah Valley doesn't take many threes (345th in attempts), so it will not affect them as much as the Dons' typical opponents. Utah Valley is also a stronger rebounding team and I expect them to grind out a cover.

Rating: 2 Units

I’m going to lean toward Northern Iowa. You could make a case either way here, though. The Panthers had a rough first half in their tournament loss to a middling Valparaiso team and couldn’t rally for the win in the end. Northern Iowa ended up shooting 47.9 percent from the field in that one but went just 11-of-21 (52.4 percent) from the line and had 11 turnovers. That’s not going to cut it in tournament play. Northern Iowa has been below 64 points in three of their last four games (all three were losses), so they’re going to need a big push on offense here. As for SMU, it’s been a choppy run lately as they’ve finished below 70 points in all five losses during this 4-5 stretch. If Northern Iowa can keep that trend going (and find some life at the line), the Panthers will be in good shape for a potential cover. 

Rating: 2 Units

North Alabama will be the more motivated side as it doesn’t get these chances often. A quality opponent on national TV. However, the MVC is head and shoulders the better conference than the ASUN, and I’d need more points to look the other way. Bradley is more balanced with a top-100 scoring offense and top-100 scoring defense. Bradley has won 13 of its 16 home games and it's also the best three-point shooting team in the country in terms of percentage. Assuming Bradley cares about this tournament and doesn’t come out disinterested, this should be a win for the Braves. I just don’t believe North Alabama is battle-tested enough to win this game on the road. I’ll lay the points with Bradley.

Rating: 2 Units

The North Texas Mean Green will be too much on defense for Furman to remain close. North Texas was third in the nation in points allowed and in the top 50 in both field goal shooting and 3-point shooting percentage allowed. North Texas averaged 7.6 steals and 2.4 blocked shots per game. Furman played well on defense but allowed 69.7 points per game, which was over 10 points more than the Mean Green (59.3 ppg) gave up per game. Furman has lost six of the last seven straight up when facing a team from the American Athletic Conference. Both teams play a methodical style offense and the big difference will be who shoots better, which of course will be determined in a big way by the defense, and North Texas is much better in that aspect of the game.

Rating: 3 Units

KenPom rates Dayton as the 74th-ranked NCAAB team, including 51st in offensive efficiency and 129th in defensive efficiency. The Flyers score 75.5 points per game (133rd) on 46.0 percent shooting (111th), while their opponents average 70.0 points per game (120th) on 43.5 percent shooting (160th).  KenPom rates FAU as the 115th-ranked NCAAB team, including 82nd in offensive efficiency and 202nd in defensive efficiency. The Owls score 78.8 points per game (65th) on 46.2 percent shooting (101st), while their opponents average 75.2 points per game (276th) on 43.0 percent shooting (129th).

Rating: 2 Units

I’ll stay with George Mason. The Patriots didn’t play their best in their Sunday loss to a very good VCU team, ultimately shooting just 33.9 percent from the field with 11 turnovers for 15 Rams points. George Mason played well on defense though, with 40.4 percent shooting allowed and 16 points off 16 VCU miscues. The foul shooting (16-of-19 for 84.2 percent) was great as well; the team simply couldn’t overcome the rough shooting outing. It would be nice to see the offense get going in this NIT matchup, as George Mason has been below 70 points in four of the last six games (a 4-2 run). The Patriots have given up fewer than 69 points in five straight though (a 4-1 run), so we’ll take what we can get. Samford has posted 78 or more points in four straight (a 2-2 run), which makes this a very interesting matchup. All things considered however, I like George Mason to bounce back with a nice effort and control this one from front to back. 

Rating: 2 Units

I’m on American here. I was really impressed with American from a defensive perspective as conference play finished and throughout the Patriot League tournament. Mount St. Mary’s plays in the MAAC which is known for being more of a low-scoring kind of conference, and their results in the conference tournament were indicative of that. Between two teams that play solid defense, I think American has the more reliable offense here and I think the Eagles get the win and cover to progress in the NCAA tournament. Give me American here.

Rating: 2 Units

It's going to be the first meeting between these teams. Some experts claimed that North Carolina didn't deserve to get the First Four invitation as the Tar Heels lacked big wins throughout the season. They only recorded one victory against the top 25 ranked teams, while San Diego State has two such wins. Still, I am sure North Carolina, one of the most successful programs in the country, will prove the doubters wrong and will win this game and enter the main tournament. San Diego State has only covered the Spread in 12 of its last 32 games. Back North Carolina to win and cover.

Rating: 2 Units

These teams have met on six occasions before and the record is tied at 3-3. The previous H2H encounter was in December 2022 when Oklahoma State recorded a win. Even though Oklahoma State is good at home (12-3), I am far from being impressed with how the Cowboys have been playing lately, so I believe Wichita State has a chance here. Backing the Shockers to get a win is for the braver bettors, but I am going with the visitors to stay close, put up a fight, and cover on Tuesday. Wichita State has covered the Spread in 10 of its last 13 games.

Rating: 2 Units

The Red Wolves have been off the court for a while though (last Monday) and may be a little rusty initially. In their Sun Belt Championship loss to Troy, Arkansas State shot a tepid 41.3 percent from the field with a 39-35 rebounding deficit and 12 turnovers for 17 Trojans points. The good news is that the offense is still kicking; the Red Wolves have 74 or more points in six straight games (a 5-1 run). As for Saint Louis, they missed six of 18 free throws (66.7 percent), got outmuscled on the boards 37-30 and had 10 turnovers for 13 Loyola points in their Atlantic 10 Tournament loss. The 64 points in that one were a disappointment after a combined 173 in the previous pair as well. I like the Billikens to bounce back a bit in a fairly high-scoring game here, but Arkansas State should have the advantage overall. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Mocs didn’t play terribly versus Furman in their SoCon Semifinal loss, but they did give up 47.4 percent shooting with a 37-34 rebounding deficit and 10 turnovers. Chattanooga shot 43.8 percent from the field themselves and went a nice 10-of-12 (83.3 percent) from the line. That gives the Mocs 71 or more points in 13 straight games—a 12-1 run overall. As for Middle Tennessee, they played a tight game in the semifinal of the CUSA Tournament versus Jacksonville State. The only major disparity in that one was the Raiders’ 36-27 rebounding deficit—not to mention the 9-of-17 (52.9 percent) from the line. Middle Tennessee played a couple of very tight games in the conference tournament, and this one is shaping up to be another competitive outing. I like Chattanooga to eke one out in the end, but you could make a case either way. 

Rating: 2 Units

Kent State is a solid defensive unit, but I just feel like the Bonnies are a better version of Kent state. Both defend the floor well, but the Bonnies force turnovers just as well as Kent State but Kent State isn’t great at taking care of the basketball. The Bonnies are also elite at keeping teams off of the foul line and that’s one area where Kent State has an edge. I’ll side with the Bonnies to get the win and cover at home here.

Rating: 2 Units

It’s kind of strange to see Alabama State as this big of a favorite when you consider St. Francis (PA) is playing the better basketball right now. St. Francis (PA) is also comfortably the better offensive side, which includes being a top-100 offensive field goal percentage team. Alabama State doesn’t shoot the ball well at all and has scored 64 or fewer points in five of its last eight games. If St. Francis (PA) can hit shots and control the pace, I don’t believe Alabama State has the horses to counter. There should also be more red in the building than anything considering it’s only a five-hour car ride to Dayton from St. Francis. This is a winnable game for St. Francis (PA) and really comes down to if the offense plays true to its numbers. If so, we’ll see an upset in the first NCAA Tournament game. Give me St. Francis (PA) and the points.

Rating: 2 Units

The Wolverines were last in the Big Ten in turnover rate, giving the ball away on 19.6-percent of their possessions. Well, Wisconsin's defense is No. 330 in the country in forcing turnovers. When these teams met in Madison earlier this season, Michigan only committed 12 turnovers and Roddy Gayle was responsible for four of them. Gayle has since been sent to the bench and his playing time has been reduced, helping to cut down on those turnover concerns. Wisconsin's offense is capable of filling the net and keeping the score board operator busy, but the Badgers' defense is not equipped to take advantage of the Wolverines' biggest flaw. When these teams met in Madison, Wisconsin closed as a three-point home favorite. Should the Badgers now be laying a bigger number on a neutral floor?

Rating: 2 Units

Tennessee is likely locked into a 2-seed after their run in the SEC Tournament, but Florida can secure their 1-seed with a win, and their offense will help carry the way. These are two of the best teams in the nation, but Tennessee's offense is the worst unit in this game analytically. The Volunteers are 18th in offensive efficiency, while the Gators are 3rd. Tennessee cannot rely on Zeigler to lead the way in scoring, the 5'9 guard only scores 13.1 PPG, and cannot carry the offensive load. Florida is rolling offensively, they just scored 104 points in regulation against Alabama, they can fill it up at will. They have three guards in Clayton, Richard and Martin who have all scored at least 16 points in both SEC Tournament games. Florida is too deep, and the better offensive team will carry the way in the final.

Rating: 2 Units

Both teams are top-10 in the country in two-point shooting allowed. The glaring issue on the George Mason side is the Patriots' turnover rate. George Mason turns the ball over on 20.1-percent of its possessions, and that is a recipe for disaster against VCU. Patriots' starting point guard KD Johnson had four turnovers in each of his first two tournament games against George Washington and Saint Joe's. When these teams met in Richmond last month, VCU forced 14 turnovers and won the rebounding battle. The Patriots turned the ball over 16 times in Saturday's win over Saint Joe's. They got past the Hawks because Saint Joe's shot 33.3-percent from the floor and missed 28 three-pointers. Tony Skinn has done a fantastic job with the George Mason program, but with those turnover issues, VCU has a clear advantage in this matchup.

Rating: 2 Units

The Tigers have won six straight games, while the Green Wave have won four of their last six games. Memphis has the edge here because they’re shooting the ball better, making over 50 percent of their shots in their last three games, while the Green Wave make 45 percent of theirs. They do a good job of finding the open man and they rebound the ball well, grabbing more than 10 offensive rebounds per game, which will give them more scoring chances. They also so a good job of protecting the ball and won’t give up many easy-scoring chances. The Green Wave aren’t playing well defensively and they gave up more than 72 point per game in their last three games, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Tigers

Rating: 2 Units

The Tigers were tied with Ole Miss on Friday with six minutes remaining before pulling away in the final minutes. That tight contest comes on the heels of losing back-to-back games to close the regular season. Compare that to Tennessee's game against Texas where the Volunteers never trailed. Tennessee maintained a double-digit lead from the 14-minute mark of the second half through the end of the game. The Vols play at the slowest pace in the SEC, and in theory, should have a little more pep in their step at this time of the season. Tennessee has won six of its last seven games, with that lone loss coming by two points at Ole Miss. Four of Tennessee's six losses this season have come by five points or fewer. The Vols have won three of the last five meetings, and one of Auburn's wins came by two points. 

Rating: 2 Units

Coach Valentine is going to need fresh legs to handle the Rams' aggressive defense. Even with a short-handed lineup, Loyola gave VCU quite a scare in their first meeting and that 19-point margin was not reflective of how that game was played. Loyola held a lead for almost the entire first 30 minutes of that contest. That was a three-point game with six minutes remaining before the Rams ended the game on a 22-3 run. In A-10 play, The Ramblers were No. 4 in offensive efficiency, No. 2 in effective field goal shooting, No. 1 in three-point shooting and No. 1 in assist rate. When these teams met in January, VCU was only +3 in turnover margin. If Loyola can hit a similar mark in this one and limit its mistakes, the Ramblers can stay within double-digits in this matchup.

Rating: 2 Units

Here we go with a matchup with a pair of teams that play completely different styles. Cal Poly can score a ton of points but they also give them up by the truckload. Ranking fifith-worst in the nation in scoring defense isn’t something you want to hang your hat on when it comes to a conference tournament. The Mustangs now have to deal with a UC Irvine team that is solid enough offensively but very good on the defensive end of the floor. UC Irvine has dominated this series in recent years, winning six straight and 16 of the last 17 meetings. We saw the Anteaters hang 101 and 98 points in the two meetings this season against the Mustangs. UC Irvine is solid on the glass and effective offensively: they take advantage of Cal Poly’s defensive woes and the fatigue factor to earn the win here.

Rating: 2 Units

The Tigers have gone 7-2 against the spread in their last nine games. We're a broken record at this time of the year, but we'll go back to the well with one of our favorite angles: We want to play against teams that rely heavily on three-point shooting. Louisville was No. 12 in the country in three-point shot attempts this season, as nearly 49-percent of the Cardinals' shot attempts have come from beyond the arc. Shooting conditions at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte have not been kind to these players as the first 11 games have seen an average of 132.8 points per game and three-point shooting has been dreadful. Clemson shoots above the national average from two-point range, three-point range and the free throw line. When these teams met in Louisville in January, the Cardinals enjoyed a 20-5 edge in free throw attempts. With a better whistle in the rematch, we prefer the balanced attack from the experienced Tigers in this matchup.

Rating: 2 Units

These teams split two meetings earlier this season with the home team prevailing both times. The Broncos turned in a solid defensive showing as they downed San Diego State in their quarterfinal matchup Thursday. Their problem is that New Mexico is a far better offensive team compared to the Aztecs and will seriously test the Broncos here. New Mexico put up 84 and 78 points, respectively, in their two games against Boise State, shooting 52.6% from the floor. Seeing that the Broncos struggled to slow down the Lobos in the regular season, it’s tough to see them pulling it off here as well. Take New Mexico here as they advance to the title game.

Rating: 2 Units

The Creighton Bluejays have shown the ability to dominate the UConn Huskies as they have won seven of the previous 10 games, dating back to Jan. 2021. The Bluejays have shown the ability to be the better defensive team throughout the 2024-25 college basketball season as UConn is 95th in the sport with a 102.8 defensive rating while Creighton is 43rd in college basketball with a 98.0 defensive rating up to this point. The offense as of late shows a bit of a difference as the Huskies are averaging 75.3 points in their previous three games while the Bluejays are scoring 83.7 points in their last three games. All in all, go with the Creighton Bluejays to win as an underdog. 

Rating: 2 Units

Offensively, the Volunteers were 13th in the SEC, averaging 74.5 ppg. As for the Longhorns, they have a slight edge on offense; they average 78.2 ppg, putting them 9th in the SEC this season. For defense, they are seventh in the SEC, giving up 71.4 ppg this season. This is a big spread for the Volunteers to cover in a SEC tournament, and this could be a difficult task to complete against a Longhorns team that is fighting to keep their NCAA tournament hopes alive. Tre Johnson and the rest of this Longhorns team have the offensive power to keep this game close, and even though I don’t think they will pull off the victory, they should be able to cover this large spread against Tennessee

Rating: 2 Units

Kentucky is the more talented team and has the rest advantage, but the value is with Oklahoma and the points. Kentucky is still a young team that’s had issues stringing together success this season and has had issues playing in non-home games. Oklahoma has strung together three straight underdog wins and has covered six straight games overall. While the Sooners have had ups and downs themselves when they’re rolling, they’re rolling, thanks to one of the better offenses in the country. If Oklahoma has found a rhythm, it’s more than capable of winning this game outright. Give me the points with the Sooners.

Rating: 2 Units

The Bears went 0-7 straight-up, 0-5-2 against the spread. In road and neutral site games, Baylor went 3-11-2 against the spread. Baylor head coach Scott Drew does not have a great history in this event, either. He led the Bears to the conference championship game in 2014. Since then, Baylor has not won multiple games at this event and has been eliminated in the opening game five times. These Lone Star State foes are operating on different tiers this season, and we expect Texas Tech to handle business with relative ease.

Rating: 2 Units

Marquette won seven of the previous ten H2H encounters and five of the last six. The record is 1-1 this season as each team secured a two-point win on the road. Considering how close those games were, I expect another tight affair that could go either way, while overtime is not excluded as well. Xavier is playing its best basketball of the year and is in better form than Marquette, and I am leaning toward the Musketeers in this one. Xavier has covered the Spread in 19 of its last 34 games, while Marquette has only covered the Spread in 17 of its previous 37 games. Back Xavier to cover.

Rating: 2 Units

The Wildcats are on the second leg of a back-to-back after sneaking past Richmond on Wednesday. That game was a 40-minute grind as neither team held a lead of more than seven points. Davidson is 1-7 against the spread in its last eight games. The Wildcats are only scoring an average of 66.3 points per game during that stretch. Saint Louis shot 60.6-percent from two-point range in A-10 play, which is nearly ten-percent above the national average. At tournament time, we love to back a team that can score in a variety of ways without relying on the three-point shot in an unfamiliar arena. Saint Louis certainly fits that Bill(iken).

Rating; 2 Units

The red-hot Cougars have won eight straight games including a double-OT win over Iowa State on the road. They are 7-3 ATS in that span. The Cyclones closed out the season with seven wins in their final ten games and went 6-4 ATS in that time. They failed to cover the number in the double OT loss, coming in as an 8.5-point favorite at home. The Cyclones will need to shoot like they did against Cincinnati on the afternoon, rather than the 35 percent they shot at home against the Cougars last week. The Cyclones' ability to shoot from long range could be the difference on Thursday afternoon. The Cyclones are sixth in the conference in 3-point shooting and shot 48 percent from beyond the arc on Wednesday. That was against a Cincinnati defense that ranked 7th in 3-point defense, compared to the Cougars who are ranked 14th. Payback will be on the minds of the Cyclones on Thursday and they'll get to the weekend with a win over BYU.

Rating: 2 Units

Bonaventure shot 47.1-percent from three-point range in their last versus Duquesne contest and the Bonnies "only" won by seven at home. A result like that will sound the regression alarms. Duquesne enjoyed a 39-24 advantage on the glass. Prior to that stumble, Duquesne had won the previous five meetings between these teams (4-1 ATS). The Dukes went 6-1-1 against the spread down the stretch with that lone loss coming against the Bonnies. All Coach Joyce has to do is put on film from last year's A-10 Championship run to light a fire under this year's squad. Any regression to the mean from the three-point line should be enough to propel Duquesne to victory in this opening round matchup.

Rating: 2 Units

Rutgers won the regular season meeting 95-85 in late-February as Harper and Bailey combined for 39 points and 12 assists. Rutgers closed the regular season on a high note with an overtime win over Minnesota. Take a look at the path for the winner of this game. Purdue has lost five of its last seven games. Michigan has lost its last three and the Wolverines have been playing with fire for the last two months. Steve Pikiell is a very good coach, and if he can get Harper and Bailey motivated for one more run before the NBA comes calling, there is a path for the Scarlet Knights to make some noise in Indianapolis this week.

Rating: 2 Units

The big story in that one was the re-emergence of fifth-year senior Coleman Hawkins. The Illinois transfer suffered a fractured tibia, but only missed three games and insisted on playing in the Big XII Tournament. He finished with 26 points, eight rebounds and two blocks in 38 minutes against the Sun Devils on Tuesday. We're struggling to see how Baylor is going to create enough margin to win this contest by multiple possessions. The Bears are outside the top-300 in KenPom's adjusted tempo metric. Over their last ten games, the Bears have scored an average of 69 points per game. Kansas State looked very comfortable playing at the T-Mobile Center last night. The 'Cats had four players finish in double figures and they shot 44.4-percent from three-point range. We don’t see too much that separates these teams on a neutral floor, especially since K-State has covered each of the last four in this matchup.

Rating; 2 Units

Virginia beat Georgia Tech in the only meeting this season, but it’s the Yellow Jackets that are playing the better ball right now. While both teams have benefited hit or miss all year, it’s Georgia Tech that’s won seven of its last 10 games. Those wins include upsets over Louisville, Clemson, Stanford, and Pitt. Virginia remains a rough offensive club from a shooting perspective and the defense has taken a step back in terms of efficiency. Virginia just plays at a slow pace, but nothing about this team is special. Georgia Tech has shown more at both ends of the floor and is playing with more life entering the tournament. I like Georgia Tech to beat Virginia and to advance in the ACC Tournament. 

Rating: 2 Units

In the 16-team Big XII, Utah's offense was No. 15 in turnover rate, giving the ball away on 19.9-percent of its possessions in conference play. If this game is tight at the end and it becomes a free throw shooting contest, UCF is top-25 in the country in free throw shooting (77.9-percent) while Utah is bottom-10 (64.0-percent). If this was a "normal" regular season game, we could probably find some more positives for the Utes in this matchup. But after back-to-back heartbreaking losses at the end of the regular season and playing without a true head coach, this is a nightmare matchup against a Knights team that wants to run and cause chaos for 40 minutes.

Rating: 2 Units

The Gaels are outside the top-150 in three-point shooting, two-point shooting and free throw shooting. A team that struggles to shoot the ball like they do should not be 28-4. We totally understand the argument. But guess what - They just keep winning. Gonzaga has scored an average of 63.4 points per game against Saint Mary's over the last five meetings. When your defense is that good, you can win games with some ugly offense. From a numbers' perspective, we understand why Gonzaga is favored tonight in Las Vegas. But from a matchup standpoint, the Gaels have the Bulldogs' number right now.

Rating: 2 Units

This is a tough matchup for the Orange because of their turnover woes. In the 18-team ACC, Syracuse is No. 17 in turnover rate. In conference play, the Orange are turning the ball over on 18.7-percent of their possessions. In their first meeting this season, Florida State won the turnover battle 15-9. Syracuse has lost its opening round game of the ACC Tournament each of the last two years. The Orange went 2-12 straight-up in games played away from home this season with those two wins coming at Boston College (who didn't qualify for the ACC Tournament) and Cal (13-18 overall; 6-14 ACC). Look for the Seminoles to take care of business in Saturday's marquee matchup in Charlotte.

Rating: 2 Units

This line makes absolutely no sense. Not only did Southern Utah win both games against Utah Tech, which includes a seven-point win on the road a couple of weeks ago, but the Trailblazers have lost 14 straight games and haven’t won in two months. Southern Utah has issues of its own and isn’t a team you should be excited to back, but its last two wins came against Utah Tech. Favored? I’m not buying this line at all and I’m certainly not laying points with Utah Tech. Give me Southern Utah and the points, and I’ll be on the ML as well.

Rating: 2 Units

Oklahoma State won both H2H duels thus far, including the one they played this season when it was 78-67, covering a +3.5 spread in the process. Neither team impressed me recently and it seems like a coin toss for me who is going to win this game. However, even though Cincinnati is a favorite, I believe Oklahoma State will put up a fight and stay close late in the tilt. Cincinnati has only covered the Spread in 16 of its last 37 games. Don't expect a bunch of points. It's going to be a hard-fought affair, and perhaps the Bearcats will prevail because of a stronger defense, but I am going with the Cowboys to cover.

Rating: 2 Units

The Trojans' first two tournament wins have come by 16 and 19 points. Jackson Fields and Tayton Conerway are the only two players to see more than 30 minutes on Sunday as Troy head coach Scott Cross was able to get 13 players in the game and rotate his lineup a bit. Compare that to Arkansas State, who has been involved in a pair of three-point wins over the last two days. RedWolves’ starting point guard Terrance Ford has played 79 out of a possible 80 minutes. In Sun Belt play, Troy grabbed an offensive rebound on 40.1-percent of its misses and the Trojans were top-5 in the country in offensive rebounding rate. If tired legs are a factor with three games in three days, Troy looks a little more prepared for this one.

Rating: 2 Units

This should be a fun game, as Wofford and Furman split the two games this season with the road team winning both contests. I’m laying the bucket with Furman, a team that’s playing its best ball of the season. Furman is on fire offensively and still has a defense that’s top-100 in scoring defense, top-60 in field goal percentage, and top-30 in three-point defense. I mentioned in previous articles that Furman is a legit sleeper to win this tournament and here we are. I’m not jumping off the bandwagon after making it this far. I’ll lay the bucket with Furman, making its eighth NCAA Tournament in school history. 

Rating: 2 Units

This is Charleston's first game in the CAA Tournament, so the Cougars are coming in fresh. Charleston is No. 35 in KenPom's adjusted tempo metric, so if Monmouth does have some tired legs, the Cougars are the ideal opponent to take advantage. Monmouth upset Charleston earlier this season as the Cougars were still getting their feet wet with first-year head coach Chris Mack. Prior to that 84-73 upset at Monmouth, Charleston had won the previous three meetings by an average of 16.3 points per game. Charleston is 5-1 against the spread in its last six games as a favorite.

Rating: 2 Units

Drake plays at the slowest pace in the country, using an average of 22 seconds per possession. In conference play, the Bulldogs are playing even slower. When you limit the game by as many possessions as Drake does, your margin for error is razor thin. The Bulldogs are 5-0 in overtime games this season. When favored by at least four points, Drake has gone 9-14 against the spread this season. The Bulldogs have scored an average of 65.3 points per game over their last seven contests, and that includes two games that went to overtime. We simply cannot recommend laying more than one possession with a team that can't sniff 70 points on most nights.

Rating: 2 Units

The Wolverines will be highly motivated to perform on Sunday afternoon against rival Michigan State. They look to avoid losing three straight games entering the Big Ten Tournament and to avoid a season sweep at the hands of the Spartans. Michigan State has depth and defensive presence but they may be a bit more conservative on Sunday with the #1 seed clinched in the Big Ten Tournament. Both teams get after it defensively, ranked first and second in field goal defense. The difference in this game may be the Wolverines' ability to knock down threes to keep this one close. The Spartans are last in the conference in 3-point shooting and rely more on their inside game. The Wolverines are one of the few teams that have the size to match up with the Spartans down low and to be able to exchange three points for two, with the Big Ten's 4th-best 3-point field goals made per game. The Spartans, despite their winning ways, are just 4-6 ATS in their last ten games against the Wolverines. This one will be a one-possession struggle, suggesting you take the points in this one.

Rating: 2 Units

Oregon State enjoyed a +13 edge in rebounds and won the first meeting by 20 in Corvallis. Prior to last night's come-from-behind win over Portland, Pepperdine was on a 1-6 ATS skid. That gave head coach Ed Schilling his first conference tournament win at Pepperdine. That gave the Waves something to build upon heading into next season. But we're not expecting lightning in a bottle on back-to-back nights.

Rating: 2 Units

Freshman Trevor Best has played 71 minutes over the last three games, after playing a combined nine minutes in his entire career up to last week. The few players that Coach Hurley has left put everything they had into competing with Arizona on Tuesday, and we don't see how they get off the mat for this one. Arizona State will have Texas Tech's full attention after the Sun Devils took the Red Raiders to double overtime last month. Freeman and Miller combined to score 43 points for the Sun Devils in that one. Texas Tech will be facing a much different team than the one it saw last month. The Red Raiders closed as a 16-point home favorite in that contest. Home court has changed, but Arizona State is notably worse than it was a month ago. We believe this spread should be closer to the -16 we saw in February.