Sports Handicapper ASA's Picks & Predictions

#904 ASA PLAY ON Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Chicago White Sox, Thursday at 1:10 PM ET - The White Sox have now lost 9 of 10 games and 8 of those 9 losses were via a multi-run margin of defeat.  It will be tough for the White Sox to keep up here as they have scored an average of only 2 runs per game in their last 9 losses.  Chris Paddack had a tough start to this season but has been much stronger in his last two starts with only one earned run allowed in each start.  Paddack allowed only 5 hits while striking out 11 over 10 innings in those two starts.  Last season at home Paddack was 4-1 with a 3.61 ERA in his 9 starts.  Chicago counters with Shane Smith here.  Smith is a rookie who was off to a good beginning to this season over his first 3 starts but the White Sox right-hander hit 3 batters in most recent start and allowed 3 earned runs in 4 and 2/3 innings.  Issues with command for Smith and it could all unravel for him here on the road and facing a Twins team that has won 4 straight home games.  Also, 8 of 9 Twins victories this season have come by a multi-run margin.  Lay it with the home team here as we look for another blowout road loss here for the White Sox as the Twins hold all the edges in this match-up. We are laying the 1.5 runs with the home team on the run line in this one early Thursday.

Spanish La Liga: #201997/201998 ASA PLAY ON Under 2.5 Goals (-120) – Atletico Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano, Thursday at 3:30 ET - Atletico Madrid has conceded only 14 goals in their 16 home games in La Liga action this season!   Rayo Vallecano has conceded only 15 goals in 16 road games this season!  Both of those solid defensive statistics rank among the best in the league this season!  We see this one struggling to see much goal-mouth action.  Rayo Vallecano allowed 3 goals in the most recent road game and Atletico Madrid allowed 2 goals in the most recent home game.  The point is that both clubs will likely have defensive intensity dialed up for this one after unusual results in their most recent road / home games, respectively.  Their first meeting this season was a rather drab 1-1 draw and we expect a similar result here.  Our computer math model shows the highest probability being a match totaling 1 to 2 goals here and we will take the under in this one. 

NHL play on: Ottawa Senators -107 vs. Toronto Maple Leafs – Game 3 Thursday, 7pm ET - I’m betting on the Ottawa Senators to beat the Toronto Maple Leafs in Game 3 on Thursday night at Canadian Tire Centre, with the Sens a slight favorite. Despite trailing 0-2 in the series, Ottawa has been the better team overall, outshooting Toronto 61-45 across the first two games. The Senators also swept the regular-season series 3-0, outscoring Toronto 7-3. Ottawa’s underlying numbers are strong—they’ve led the playoffs with 148 shot attempts through two games and hold edges in scoring chances, expected goals, and high-danger chances, even if they haven’t converted enough. At home, where they went 27-11-3 this season, the Sens should capitalize on their territorial dominance. Meanwhile, Toronto’s 33-12-2 record when outshot this season (47 times) is impressive, but their 5-on-5 play has been underwhelming, outscoring Ottawa just 4-3 in that situation despite a 9-4 overall edge. With Ottawa’s physicality, home crowd energy, and regular-season success against the Leafs, I expect a Sens win to get back into the series.

ASA NBA play on Detroit Pistons +1.5 vs NY Knicks Game 3 Thursday, 7pm ET - I’m betting the Pistons take Game 3 against the Knicks on Thursday. They’ve outplayed New York in 6 of 8 quarters this series, splitting the first two games, with a 123-112 loss in Game 1 and a 100-94 win in Game 2. Detroit’s been a top-10 team on both ends of the court since February, led by Cade Cunningham (26.1 points, 9.1 assists, 6.1 rebounds), who had 33 points and 12 rebounds in Game 2. They’ve also won 3 of 4 regular-season matchups and out-rebounded the Knicks 48-34 in Game 2. The Pistons grabbed 12 offensive boards in G2 which led to 13-second chance points.  The Knicks are just 15-13 against winning teams this season and 6-16 against top-10 point differential teams like Detroit (ninth). With home-court energy, we like the young Pistons over the Knicks in Game 3.