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Jack's Free Pick Thursday: Royals/Tigers UNDER 8

Two struggling offenses square off in Game 1 of this series tonight.  The Royals have scored 3 runs or fewer in eight of their last nine games overall, and 4 runs or fewer in 12 consecutive contests.  The Tigers have been held to one run or fewer in three of their last four games coming in.

The forecast will aid us in cashing this UNDER 8 ticket tonight.  There are expected to be 10-15 MPH winds blowing in from center at spacious Comerica Park tonight.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Royals last 11 games overall.  The UNDER is 7-2-1 in Tigers last 10 games overall.

Michael Lorenzen went 7-6 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 24 starts and two relief appearances last season.  Lorenzen is 1-2 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in three starts this season.  He has owned the Tigers, allowing just one earned run in 10 2/3 innings in his two starts against them last season.

Reese Olson is 10-16 with a 3.90 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 43 starts and three relief appearances in the big leagues.  He isn't off to the best start this season, but he should get right tonight against the cold-hitting Royals with the wind blowing in.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

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David's 1% MLB Free Pick

We really like the favorite in this matchup. The line looks mispriced considering the two teams home/away splits with the Royals 2-7 away from home and the Tigers 5-1 at home. The Tigers will be eager to get back on track at home after losing the last two on a six-game road trip. 

This is a 1% free play on the Tigers

Free Play – Take #954 Detroit -140 over Kansas City (6:40 p.m. ET, Thursday, Apr. 17)

Kansas City and Detroit open a four-game series in the Motor City searching for offense. The Tigers, after taking the series opener 9-1 at Milwaukee, scored one other run in the Brew City and rang just one tally last Sunday at Minnesota. The Royals scored just six times in the Cement Jungle of New York, being swept by the Yankees. K.C.’s problems go deeper, as only Colorado scores fewer runs per game than their 3.0. That is wasting Kansas City’s pitching, which is 4th in runs allowed. Michael Lorenzen (1-2, 3.71 ERA) will go for K.C. and he’s the quintessential 5th starter; anything is possible. Detroit’s Reese Olson (1-1, 6.00 ERA) is much the same, but he and his teammates are 7-3 vs. AL teams scoring 4.4 or less RPG at home. Lorenzen on the teams he played for is 12-23 as a road underdog of +100 or higher.

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On Thursday April 17, 2025 the Detroit Tigers will start a four-game series at Comerica Park against the Kansas City Royals. The Detroit Tigers who lead AL Central with a 10–7 record need to bounce back from consecutive defeats in Milwaukee where their team scored only one run across two games. After dropping three consecutive games in a difficult series in New York the Royals who currently hold a third-place position in their division with an 8–10 record are attempting to reverse their losing trend.

Right-handed pitcher Reese Olson (1–1, 6.00 ERA) will take the mound for Detroit while Kansas City responds with their veteran right-handed pitcher Michael Lorenzen (1–2, 4.50 ERA). Olson works to establish a more consistent performance following a challenging start to the season while Lorenzen focuses on delivering stability to support the Royals' rotation which lacks depth.

Spencer Torkelson leads the Tigers offense with a .273 batting average and six home runs paired with 13 RBIs. Their offensive performance has been problematic at the plate with Riley Greene experiencing a significant slump by managing only one hit in 32 recent plate appearances. The Royals have struggled to maintain offensive consistency by averaging only 2.2 runs per game in their most recent ten games. Bobby Witt Jr. stands out as a positive element on the team with his nine-game hitting streak and impressive .353 batting average in his most recent ten games.

Home cooking should provide the necessary boost for the Tigers to regain their winning momentum on this Thursday game.

Take: Detroit Tigers. 

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Kansas City Royals +135

The Kansas City Royals have the advantage at starting pitcher today with Michael Lorenzen over Reese Olson.  Lorenzen has a 3.99 ERA for his career, he had a 3.31 ERA last season and he has a 3.71 ERA thus far this season.  Reese Olson is 1-1 with a 6.00 ERA in three starts this season.  Olson has given up 5 earned runs and 2 HR in 5 innings in his last two starts against the Royals.  Lorenzen has only given up one earned run in 10 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Tigers.  Give me the Royals.

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UNDER 9

New York and Tampa are worth a flyer to the under. This is a game where both starting pitchers are going to have success. Bradley goes for the Rays and he owns an ERA of under 1 in his career against this New York side. Warren counters and has momentum coming into play after earning his major league win. Both have started the season off well and they're going to find a lot of success against these hitters. Grab the under. My daily free plays are meant to be cheap bankroll plays. Remember folks, money management is the key to profits when it comes to sports gambling. Strong lean on the UNDER 9 tonight. You know what to do. Hop ON! Good Luck, Razor Ray.

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Ricky's 1* play on TB.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- Taj Bradley is 4-1 in his last 5 starts for the Rays.

- The Yankees are 1-3 in their last 4 road games.

- Will Warren has loss 2 of his last 3 starts for the Yankees.

Verdict: The value is on the Home favorite.

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY RAYS for our Thursday Free Play. The Yankees are coming off a home sweep over the royals and turn to Will Warren who is making his fourth start and while he has not been horrible, he has been far from dominating. He is coming off a start where he allowed two runs over five innings, his second start with the same stat lines but both were at home and in his lone road outing, he gave up four runs in four innings against the Pirates. He has struggled ever since hitting the rotation last July as he has an 8.35 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in eight starts and one relief appearance. Tampa Bay fell to 8-10 on the season following a pair of losses against Boston after opening the series with a 16-1 win as it has been unable to take advantage of a skewed opening schedule where 15 of its first 18 games have been at home so this is an important series. Taj Bradley is coming off a solid opening start as he tossed a quality outing and then posted another quality start last time out. Those were both at home with a poor road start in-between and going back to last season, he has a 3.66 ERA in 15 home starts. After a rough rookie campaign where he posted a 5.59, he dropped that by nearly a run and a half over 25 starts last season. Play (966) Tampa Bay Rays

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Flyers vs Sabres 
5-Unit bet on the Flyers priced as a 120-underdog. 

The following NHL betting algorithm has produced a 92-87 record good for 51.4% winning bets but by averaging a 110-underdog wager has produced a solid 11.11% ROI and a $22,420 profit for the Dime bettor and a $1,120 profit for the casual $50 per game bettor since 2014. The requirements are: 

Bet on a road team priced between a 125 favorite and a 125 underdog. 

Both teams have won between 40 and 49% of their games. 

The game occurs in the second half of the season. 

The opponent is playing their 6th game in the past 2 weeks. 

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Free Total Annihilator On Islanders vs Blue Jackets over 5½ -130

ASA NHL free bet Over 6.5 Goals in Flyers vs. Sabres – 7pm ET - The Philadelphia Flyers vs. Buffalo Sabres game at 7:00 PM is a primed for an Over 6.5 goals. Philadelphia’s Samuel Ersson (.891 SV%, 2.80 GAA) and Buffalo’s James Reimer (~.890-.900 SV%, ~3.00-3.20 GAA) are among the NHL’s weakest goalies, with Ersson’s minus-6.5 GSAA and Reimer’s recent seven-goal outing highlighting their struggles. Both teams’ defenses are average to below-average, allowing high-danger chances, while their offenses (led by Philly’s Travis Konecny 75-pts and Buffalo’s Tage Thompson 72-pts) can capitalize on shaky goaltending. The Flyers allow 3.43 GA/G (28th) while the Penguins give up 3.52 GA/G which is 30th. The two meetings between these teams earlier this season produced 11 and 7 goals. We expect a high-scoring game as neither Ersson nor Reimer consistently stops quality shots.

1* Free Sharp Play on Rangers -120

1* Free Play on Lightning +123

(#12) Toronto Maple Leafs // MONEYLINE //. 

Detroit is out of the playoffs, and even though its won three consecutive games, it doesn't have much to play for today. The Red Wings are still without Erik Gustafsson (who's played 60 games this year) and that has shifted things in the line up. Yes, it doesn't seem to be impacting them too much right now. But, this is their fourth straight difficult match in a row and I believe that it will get to them this evening. 

Toronto is looking forward to a much better playoff run this season. The Leafs are poised for a deep run if they can get by Ottawa in the first round. Going into the playoffs hot is something that they'd love to have and winning this game would be their fifth consecutive win. The Leafs have beaten the Red Wings two out of three times so far, including the lone time here in Toronto (3-1.) Expect another win here. 

Score Prediction: 4-2 Leafs. 

Line Parameter: play until -180..

1* FREE INFO PLAY Red Wings +128

1 Dimer on Lightning +123

Thursday Europa League TOTAL OF THE YEAR EARLY and the MLB Game of the Week tonight. NHL Comp Play

The NHL Comp Play is on the NY. Rangers at 7:10 eastern. The Rangers are in a nice 80% Game 82 last game of season system that plays on Home favorites at -115 or more with rest off a road dog win if the total is more than 5 and the total is 6 or less. The Rangers have home loss revenge and Tampa may be flat here off the big win over Florida. Take the Rangers tonight. Rob V-

PSP Data Driven 1* Cardinals.

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the Underdog. St. Louis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games. NY Mets is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against St. Louis.

My friends, after starting the MLB campaign very strong, I hit a speed bump the last week or so. But today I get back on track like the MLB premier Handicapper I am, and I have just a game to do it for us; my first MLB MVP release of the campaign.

Thursday’s FREE WINNER: New York Mets.

Game 958.

4:10 PM PST/7:10 PM EST

For my Free Play today, I want to talk about one of the most interesting matchups on the board for Thursday, and that's the Cardinals/Mets contest. St. Louis, despite possessing one of the most potent offenses in the Major’s, is sitting at just 9-9, tied for third place in the NL Central. It seems no matter what this team does at the plate, they just can't string together a win streak. Not since the first three games of the season, in which they went 3-0 have they done better than two wins in a row. Their pitching has been erratic at best. As far as New York goes; despite dropping back-to-back games, this team still sits atop the NL East, at 11-7. Their offense possesses statistics that rank in the bottom third in just about every major category. It has been their pitching that has brought them success thus far. They are the best in the baseball. with a team ERA of 2.38. I feel this matchup isn’t just about the Cardinals bats against the Mets arms. I think this is about location. St. Louis loses something when they travel, going just 1-5 away from home this season, while New York owns a very impressive 5-1 mark at Citi Field. The Mets also come in here a little hotter, and with a lot of confidence, knowing they've taken four in a row and seven of the last 10 meetings and this National League rivalry. I'll take New York at home here, and take my bookmaker’s money. Thank you

Thursday's MLB Free Pick

PLAY ON: New York Mets -130

Dave's Thursday Free Play:

1* on Angels/Rangers OVER 9

The Key: After a couple pitcher's duels to open this series, I like the bats to get going tonight up against these two back-end starters.  Jack Kochanowicz is 1-1 with a 5.74 ERA in 3 starts for the Angels this year and 3-7 with a 4.33 ERA in 14 starts over the last 2 years.  He only has 34 strikeouts in 81 innings and is the definition of pitching to contact.  Kumar Rocker is 0-4 with a 5.87 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in 6 starts, including 0-2 with a 7.94 ERA and 1.94 WHIP in 3 starts this year.  Take the OVER.

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1* Free Play on Rangers -144

1* Free Pick on Rangers -144

Bahia struggles defensively. Cruzeiro is at home and should be able to outscore Bahia. Let's cash some tickets!

Thursday NHL Free play. My selection is on the 'under' between Calgary and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Thursday.

Both the Flames and Kings enter Thursday’s regular-season finale off high-scoring performances, but I expect a shift in pace as they gear up for what should be a more disciplined and defensively-focused contest. Calgary’s offense has clicked in recent games, but it's important to note that the bulk of that production has come at home. On the road, the Flames have managed just 2.5 goals per game this season and will now face one of the stingiest home defenses in the league.

Los Angeles has allowed just 2.0 goals per game on home ice — a testament to its tight defensive structure and goaltending depth. With a playoff rematch against Edmonton looming, I expect the Kings to approach this game with a ‘playoff prep’ mindset, tightening up defensively and limiting unnecessary risks.

These two teams combined for just three goals in their most recent meeting, and the Kings will likely aim to set the tone early by slowing the game down and controlling possession. While Calgary has been involved in four straight ‘overs,’ the stylistic matchup here suggests we’ll see a more measured, lower-scoring affair.

Take the under. Projected score: Kings 3, Flames 2.